Locked and loaded

Richard Heydarian says upgraded Japan-Philippine-US alliance risks more regional tensions

The historic Japan-Philippine-US summit this week will coincide with a significant upgrade in military cooperation among the three nations. The US and Japan are set to upgrade their alliance to deepen military cooperation amid new global geopolitical uncertainties.

Meanwhile, the Philippines and Japan are set to sign a reciprocal access agreement, which would facilitate expanded joint drills and potentially pave the way for a large-scale deployment of the Japan SelfDefence Forces to Philippine bases. Moreover, the three allies are also expected to tighten intelligence-sharing and cybersecurity cooperation with one another.

The emerging trilateral grouping is part of a network of “minilateral” groupings in the region such as the Aukus security pact and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Though unmentioned in the White House statement on the summit, China’s resurgence as a major naval power in Asia is likely to be a central theme of the meeting.

The emerging alliance between the Philippines, Japan and the US is an integral part of the Biden administration’s “integrated deterrence” strategy, especially amid growing fears of potential conflicts over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The summit is also meant to cement Japan’s position as a security provider, accelerate the Philippines’ military modernisation and “Trump-proof” the trilateral alliance in light of deepening concerns over American isolationism.

Over the past decade, multilateralism largely lost its lustre on many fronts, especially in Asia. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has largely failed to live up to expectations, namely its earlier promise to become an engine of inclusive regional integration. The regional body has broadly failed to address major crises even in its own backyard, most notably the civil war in Myanmar. The negotiations over a code of conduct in the South China Sea, meanwhile, have remained open-ended with little concrete results.

Thanks to thick webs of economic interdependence and investment ties among Asian nations, however, there are reservations against any Nato-like military alliance. Instead, a growing number of regional states are embracing “multialignment”, refusing to side with any superpower against another, as well as various forms of “minilateral” cooperation, namely ad hoc, flexible, issue-specific cooperation among few like-minded powers.

The Japan-Philippines-US trilateral grouping, however, is a relatively new phenomenon. In many ways, it is the product of the dramatic shift in Philippine foreign policy under President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, who steadily pivoted towards the West shortly after a state visit to China in January 2023. Failing to secure major concessions from Beijing, the Filipino president began to double down on security cooperation with traditional allies.

Encouraged by an earlier meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US Vice-President Kamala Harris, Marcos pressed for a trilateral security arrangement with both the US and Japan in 2023. Over the succeeding months, the three nations held drills among their coastguard forces, discussed joint patrols in the South China Sea, and held a high-level meeting of their national security officials.

The coming summit has three major objectives. To begin with, the three countries involved aim to tie the Philippines into a broader American regional strategy, with a particular focus on Taiwan. After all, the Southeast Asian nation has military bases close to Taiwan’s southern shores and has gradually opened some of its prized facilities in northernmost islands of Cagayan and Isabela to the Pentagon under an expanded Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement.

Although Marcos has equivocated on his country’s involvement in Taiwan, the summit is likely to turn the Philippines into an integral component of any joint US-Japan response to mainland Chinese kinetic action over the self-governed island.

In exchange, the Philippines is likely to seek expanded defence aid from its key allies. This brings us to the second key objective, namely reinforcement of Japan’s role as a major security player in the region. The Philippine ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez, has revealed that Manila and Tokyo are set to arrange a rotational deployment of forces after the trilateral summit.

Japan’s foreign ministry has hailed the coming deal but denied reports of potential deployment of Japanese troops to Philippine bases, likely due to fears of a political backlash, especially from the pacifist Komeito Party in the Japanese ruling coalition. In the meantime, Japan is likely to explore expanded drills with as well as exports of increasingly sophisticated weapons systems to the Philippines, with a focus on maritime security.

Finally, the trilateral summit is also part of a shared fear of populist shocks in the future. In the US, Trump’s return to the White House next year has become a growing possibility, thus raising fears of a more isolationist American foreign policy. In the Philippines, the Beijing-friendly Duterte family has openly clashed with Marcos on foreign policy and current VicePresident Sara Duterte is a favourite for the 2028 presidential election.

On its part, the Kishida administration is on extremely shaky grounds, given the prime minister’s historically low approval ratings. Thus, the three leaders want security cooperation to cushion their defence alliance against any major reversals in the future.

Tighter security cooperation among the three allies, however, could have the paradoxical effect of further intensifying geopolitical tensions in the region. Concerned about strategic encirclement, it’s highly unlikely for China to just sit idly by. The emerging alliance between Japan, Philippines and the US is likely to only reinforce zero-sum geopolitical dynamics in Asia.

The three leaders want security cooperation to cushion their defence alliance against any … reversals in the future