Moscow peace treaty offer a ‘bid to cause US-Japan rift’

Russia has dredged up a Cold War-era strategy in an effort to drive a wedge between Tokyo and Washington, analysts say, after a Kremlin spokesman blamed the presence of US troops in Japan for the lack of a peace treaty between Moscow and Tokyo to formally conclude World War II.

Dmitry Peskov’s remarks – that the American presence in Japan had been an obstacle to a peace treaty for the past 79 years – could even be interpreted as hinting at Moscow’s willingness to return a group of islands seized by Soviet forces in the closing days of the war, on condition that US troops leave Japan.

They came amid the backdrop of this week’s trilateral talks involving Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, US President Joe Biden and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr.

“The de facto defence alliance is already there, and we know about the United States’ military potential that is stationed in Japan – close to our borders,” Peskov said.

“This has always been a stumbling block in trying to reach a settlement of our main problem, the peace treaty.”

Tokyo and Moscow have held discussions for years over the islands of Etorofu – Iturup in Russian – Kunashiri (or Kunashir), Shikotan and the Habomai Islets that were occupied just days before Japan’s surrender in 1945. Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe came closest to an agreement in 2016 with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the territory’s joint economic development.

But no consensus was reached, and Putin has taken an increasingly firm line on the issue, passing legislation making it illegal to cede any Russian territory to another country. As a result of the impasse, the two countries have never signed a peace treaty to formally end the second world war.

Russia’s “carrot-and-stick” diplomatic approach to Japan dated back to Andrei Gromyko becoming foreign minister of the Soviet Union in the late 1950s, said Russian-born Yakov Zinberg, a professor of international relations at Tokyo’s Kokushikan University.

“In the past, Moscow proposed that Japan become neutral and that they would then be willing to return the islands, that a peace treaty could be signed and that there would be no reason for Japan to fear the Soviet Union,” he told the Post. “Obviously, the aim was to create a split with the US, and that policy effectively continues to this day.”

Russia has said the US-Japan security treaty gives the Americans the right to construct military facilities anywhere in Japan, and that Washington would take advantage of that agreement to build bases on the islands if they were returned.

Peskov’s comments also came as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Beijing on Monday for an official visit, Zinberg said.

“Russia does not want to be overly dependent on China and I think these comments out of Moscow can also be understood to mean that Russia is still willing to work with Japan,” he said.

“Moscow knows Japan needs Russian oil and gas and the new ambassador said recently that Russia would be willing to help Japanese companies that have stayed in the country, so I see this as an effort to seduce Japan and distance it from the US.”

But there was virtually no likelihood of distancing Japan from the US, Zinberg said.

Tokyo hopes to one day see the islands returned, but that cannot happen at the cost of weaker national security as a result of US forces withdrawing from Japan, said James Brown, an international relations professor who specialises in Russian affairs at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

“Japan is going to shrug this off as their entire focus at the moment is on the trilateral talks with the US and the Philippines,” he said, referring to the two-day talks that begin in Washington today.

Meanwhile, Russia’s military continued to test Japan’s defences, Brown said.

A Tu-95 long-range reconnaissance aircraft was tracked off Hokkaido earlier this month while a Russian intelligence-gathering ship has been hugging Japan’s northern coast in recent weeks, and operating near the Okinawa island of Miyakojima.

“The issue [about Northern Territories] does not have the same leverage as it did [previously]. This will not have any effect on Japan’s relations with the US at all,” Zinberg said.