Aukus expansion would ‘do little to alter short-term balance of power’

The potential expansion of Aukus may increase defence pressure on China as it faces more hi-tech defence technology, including hypersonic weapons, but Beijing could expect little in the way of changes in power dynamics in the near term, analysts have said.

Last Wednesday, as he met Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House, US President Joe Biden said the informal bloc was exploring ways to work with Japan in hi-tech defence capabilities, while both nations would keep responding to challenges concerning China “through close coordination”.

“Our Aukus defence partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom is exploring how Japan can join our work in the second pillar, which focuses on advanced capabilities, including AI, autonomous systems,” Biden added.

Launched in 2021, the Aukus pact has two key pillars: Pillar I is to support Australia’s acquisition of conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines; Pillar II focuses on cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence and hypersonics.

The possible expansion of the defence partnership came up after Aukus defence chiefs issued a joint statement on Monday, stating the three countries were considering cooperation with Japan on the second pillar.

“The signalling has been an important part showing that Pillar II of Aukus, the one that focuses on emerging technologies, may be more inclusive to like-minded and similarly developed allies of the current Aukus members,” said Stephen Nagy, an international relations professor at International Christian University in Tokyo.

Beijing has criticised Tokyo’s possible participation in Aukus.

According to the Yonhap News Agency, Washington is considering adding South Korea, Canada and New Zealand as potential partners for cooperation on advanced capability projects in the security partnership, citing an anonymous senior US National Security Council official. The consultation process would take months, the official added.

“The increased cooperation reflects an interest in Aukus parties in accessing key technologies … as well as political interest in building up partnerships that could be useful in countering Chinese coercive behaviour,” said Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the Rand Corporation.

“Japan and [South Korea] have become more concerned about Chinese behaviour … and this explains their interest in cooperating more closely with Aukus.”

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the four countries in discussion to join Aukus Pillar II “all have something to contribute”, including hypersonic missile programmes and cybersecurity and unmanned systems.

“At least for Japan, and for South Korea, for example, when it comes to hypersonic capabilities, these two countries already have existing hypersonic research programmes,” Koh said.

Benjamin Barton, associate professor at the University of Nottingham’s Malaysia campus, said the expansion of Aukus could shore up ties between Asia-Pacific states with security treaties or an intelligence sharing network with the US, thus continuing to balance against China. “Most of these states have well established and/or budding arms industries and strong budgetary commitments to maintain military spending at the same rate as the US … bringing these countries on board could significantly boost Aukus’ credibility as an ad hoc security arrangement for the region as a whole,” Barton said.

But he added that Aukus still had to sort out its positioning.

“Aukus will struggle to shed its image as an Anglo-Saxon club even if it may harbour designs to develop security structures for a much broader region,” he said.

“Aukus will also need to clarify its end goal – is it simply a vehicle to facilitate military cooperation and operationalisation for a close-knit group of states, or does it harbour much deeper ambitions?”

Heath said the most valuable cooperation in any Aukus expansion would be in defence technology ties, but that it was unlikely to develop into a regional security alliance in the near term. “The level of military cooperation should not be exaggerated. This is not an ‘Asian Nato’ with interoperable forces and obligations to fight for each other,” Heath said.

“Moreover, Aukus is a new group that is still trying to deliver practical benefits. It is premature to expand the group given it has barely started.”

Barton added that the Chinese military would continue military development and activities in the South China Sea, regardless of any Aukus expansion.

[Aukus] is not an ‘Asian Nato’ with interoperable forces and obligations TIMOTHY HEATH, RAND CORPORATION