Macron seeks help for ‘Olympic truce’
A call for Beijing to explicitly condemn Russia is likely to fail, analysts say
French President Emmanuel Macron has called on China to help engineer a three-week “Olympic truce” across global conflicts, as questions swirl over the Paris Games’ ban on Russia but not Israel.
Counting down 100 days until the start of the Summer Olympics, Macron said China would be engaged in his push for a “moment of diplomatic peace” during the event, referencing the wars in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan.
Analysts pointed out that Macron’s request, apart from the Olympics angle, was not much different from China’s long-standing calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine, while any demand that it explicitly condemn Russia were likely to fail.
Speaking to French media, Macron cited the ancient Greek tradition that allowed for the safe passage of athletes to and from the Olympics. “We want to work towards the Olympic truce and I think that this is an opportunity on which I will try to involve many of our partners,” he said.
His comments came two weeks after French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne told his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, that Paris expected Beijing to “send very clear messages” to Moscow over the Ukraine war, reiterating Europe’s persistent requests for China to rein in its powerful neighbour.
What he meant by “clear messages” was “explicit condemnation of Russia’s military activities along the lines of Western rhetoric”, according to Moscowbased analyst Andrew Korybko.
“China has already expressed its stance towards the conflict on many occasions and continued to remain consistent in spite of Western pressure, so nothing is expected to change from its side.
“At most, China will probably reiterate its position and possibly make reference to the Olympic truce, but whatever it may say is likely to disappoint the West, as it will not change its approach just because France again requested that it does,” Korybko said.
A truce was unlikely, he said, because Ukraine and its allies had “no interest” in pursuing terms that matched Russia’s requests, though developments, including a looming battle in the town of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine, might change Kyiv’s stand.
Russia and close ally Belarus have been barred from the Games over the invasion of Ukraine, which Minsk helped to stage. But International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach has said there is “no question” that Israel – accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice over its military campaign in Gaza – will be in Paris. The move has drawn criticism of arbitrary treatment, and Korybko slammed it as “a political decision”.
“The alleged principle that was relied upon for banning Russian and Belarusian athletes should have been applied towards Israeli ones for consistency’s sake, to avoid further discrediting Olympic institutions by at least making it seem like there is a new standard at play, not blatantly double standards,” he said.
Russians and Belarusians may still compete, but only as “individual neutral athletes”.
Beijing-based political analyst Xu Qinduo noted that many countries in the developing world had criticised the West’s “hypocrisy” in approaching the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
“With them including Israel in the Games, they have to do something to have Russia participate in a more equal manner, which is not something that cannot be overcome,” Xu said.
President Xi Jinping will visit Paris in May, shortly ahead of the opening of the Games and a little over a year since Macron’s state visit to China, which sparked negative coverage in Western media over accusations that cordiality with Beijing went against a united European front on global issues.
Josef Gregory Mahoney, a politics and international relations professor at East China Normal University, said Macron might have overestimated Beijing’s influence on Moscow, despite his valid assessment about China risking its relationship with Europe by not condemning its strategic partner.
“Macron has gone back and forth, sometimes appearing to be the most reasonable out of the Group of Seven leaders, sometimes the most inconsistent.”
Mahoney said Macron had made the appeal even though China believed a truce to be unlikely, given Russia’s confidence in winning and widening fissures in US politics.
“Perhaps this appeal is a desperate but honest attempt to seek peace and reconciliation, not only between the belligerents, but likewise heal the disconnects that have grown between China and Europe.”
Xi is also expected to host Russian President Vladimir Putin next month. Putin has visited just a handful of countries since the invasion of Ukraine, mostly former Soviet states and some Middle Eastern nations.
The fact he chose China for his first overseas trip since being re-elected last month showed the value Moscow attached to its ties with Beijing amid widening geopolitical fault lines, Xu said.
“And Russia is nearly equally important to China, as the latter faces growing containment from Washington and provocations in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.”