Tokyo sends mixed signals in annual diplomatic report
Japan is sending ambiguous and contradictory signals on China despite its recent emphasis on “mutually beneficial” ties, observers said, calling for more substantial high-level exchanges to mend relations between the neighbours.
Japan released its annual diplomatic blue book last week, where it reinforced the message of building “constructive and stable” ties with China through dialogue.
It also pledged to pursue a “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interest”, reinstating the reference after a gap of five years, echoing a consensus reached between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Xi Jinping in November.
Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said the inclusion of the phrase in the latest blue book showed Japan hoped for cooperation or at least stability in ties with China.
“Engagement and dialogue are useful even if there is no agreement. That the Japanese side is extending this possibility is a positive,” Chong said. “Whether [China] will reciprocate is something to watch.”
However, the blue book also contains some sharp criticisms directed at China, including accusations it poses significant challenges to Japan’s security.
“China is attempting to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the East China Sea and South China Sea … and is continuing and strengthening military activities around Japan, thus making the security environment around Japan the most severe and complex in the post-war era,” the annual report on Japan’s foreign policy and diplomacy said.
Chinese observers said such references might send mixed signals, with Beijing inclined to give the reinstatement of the positive phrasing the cold shoulder.
In reaffirming mutually beneficial ties while stating its negative perception of China, Japan was sending out “ambiguous or even contradictory signals”, according to Zhang Yun, an associate professor of international relations at Japan’s Niigata University.
“Reinstating the strategic mutually beneficial relations after five years is supposed to be a good thing, but consistent mentioning of the ‘China threat’ has washed away the positive effect,” Zhang said.
In a speech to the US Congress earlier this month, the first such address by a Japanese leader in nine years, Kishida said “China’s military actions present an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge” to not only Japan but the world at large. He pledged to strengthen strategic collaboration with the US, citing the military activities of China and Russia as the principal threats.
“Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow,” Kishida said.
Beijing expressed its “firm objection” to the Japanese blue book, with foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian saying that Japan had “resorted to the same old false accusations against China and hype of ‘China threat’”.
Zheng Zhihua, research associate professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s Centre for Japanese Studies, said reviving the pledge for a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship could be a starting point to return to a positive trajectory in Sino Japanese relations, but China was still concerned about the discrepancy between Japan’s actions and statements.
“Beijing would certainly welcome this positive gesture. However, it will … closely monitor whether Tokyo’s words are backed with actions,” Zheng said.
He added that Japan’s close alliance with the United States and like-minded countries, with a clear aim to contain China, was triggering distrust in Beijing.
Kishida’s April 8-14 state visit to the US also included a meeting with the US and Philippine presidents, Joe Biden and Ferdinand Marcos Jnr. The leaders confirmed that they would “resolutely respond” to any attempts by China to “unilaterally change the status quo by force in the South China Sea and the East China Sea”, a Japanese foreign ministry statement said.
In a 2008 joint statement, Japan and China committed to developing a “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests,” aimed at facilitating regular high-level exchanges on matters like security and economic collaboration.
But the phrase fell out of use as tensions escalated between the historic adversaries over maritime territorial disputes, Taiwan, and more recently since Japan started a phased discharge of waste water from its damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant in August, which prompted China to impose a ban on Japanese seafood.
Last month, experts from both sides held talks in Dalian regarding technical exchanges on Fukushima waste water discharges, in the first announcement of such a meeting as Japan tries to allay Chinese concerns.
Zhang called for “more substantial” exchanges, as senior officials do not communicate frequently enough. High-level economic dialogue involving ministers from both countries should be resumed as soon as possible, Zhang said. The last such meeting was held in April 2019.
The return of the reference to mutually beneficial ties was unlikely to improve matters, said Zhiqun Zhu, director of the China Institute at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania.
“In Beijing’s view, Japan has been the most ardent supporter of the Biden administration’s IndoPacific strategy. It follows the US most closely among all US allies and partners in the US effort to counter China’s rise,” Zhu said.
“It is hard to be optimistic about Japan-China relations in the near future. If Japan continues the current approach of treating China as the biggest security challenge and actively aiding the US effort to counter China, there is no way Japan-China relations can improve.”
Beijing will … closely monitor whether Tokyo’s words are backed with actions
ZHENG ZHIHUA, SHANGHAI ACADEMIC