U.S. SUPPLIES KEEP KYIV IN WAR, BUT SLOG AHEAD
US$61b package should enable Ukraine to slow Russian advance, though future breakthroughs likely to hang on more timely deliveries of help
A big new package of US military aid will help Ukraine avoid defeat in its war with Russia. Winning will still be a long slog.
The arms and ammunition in the US$61 billion package should enable Ukraine to slow Russian army advances and block its strikes on troops and civilians. And it will buy Ukraine time – for long-term planning about how to take back the fifth of the country now under Russian control.
“Ultimately it offers Ukraine the prospect of staying in the war this year,” Michael Clarke, visiting professor in war studies at King’s College London, said. “Sometimes in warfare you’ve just got to stay in it. You’ve just got to avoid being rolled over.”
The US House of Representatives approved the package on Saturday after months of delays by some Republicans wary of US involvement overseas. It was passed by the Senate on Tuesday, and US President Joe Biden said he would then sign it.
The difference could be felt within days on the front line in eastern and southern Ukraine, where Russia’s much larger army has been slowly taking territory against massively outgunned Ukrainian forces.
The aid approval means Ukraine may be able to release artillery ammunition from dwindling stocks it has been rationing. More equipment will come soon from American stocks in Poland and Germany, and later from the US. The first shipments were expected to arrive next week, Ukrainian lawmaker Davyd Arakhamia said.
But opposition lawmaker Vadym Ivchenko warned logistical challenges and bureaucracy could delay shipments to Ukraine by two to three months, and it would be even longer before they reached the front line.
While details of the shipments are classified, Ukraine’s most urgent needs are artillery shells to stop Russian troops from advancing, and anti-aircraft missiles to protect people and infrastructure from missiles, drones and bombs.
What came first was not always what the front-line commanders needed most, Arakhamia said. He said even a military giant like the US did not have stockpiles of everything.
“The logic behind this first package was, you [the US] find our top priorities and then you see what you have in the warehouses,” Arakhamia said. “And sometimes they do not match.”
Hope for future breakthroughs for Ukraine still hang on more timely deliveries of Western aid, lawmakers acknowledge.
Many experts believe that both Ukraine and Russia are exhausted by two years of war and will not be able to mount a major offensive until next year.
Still, Russia is pushing forward at several points along the 1,000km front, using tanks, wave after wave of infantry troops and satellite-guided gliding bombs to pummel Ukrainian forces.
Russia is also hitting power plants and pounding Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, which is only about 30km from the Russian border.
Ivchenko said the goal for Ukraine’s forces now was to “hold the line” until the bulk of new supplies arrived by midsummer. Then, they could focus on trying to recapture territory recently lost in the Donetsk region.
“And probably … at the end of summer we’ll see some movement, offensive movement of the Ukrainian armed forces,” he said.
The US funding “can probably only help stabilise the Ukrainian position for this year and begin preparations for operations in 2025”, Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank, said.
In the best-case scenario for Ukraine, the American aid will give commanders time to reorganise and train its army – applying lessons learned from its failed summer offensive last year. It may also galvanise Ukraine’s allies in Europe to increase aid.
Meanwhile, one of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu’s deputies has been taken into custody on suspicion of taking bribes.
Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, 48, was detained on Tuesday and Moscow’s Basmanny District Court yesterday remanded him until June 23.
The court service said Ivanov was involved in a conspiracy to receive “property and services on a particularly large scale during contract and sub-contract work for the ministry of defence”.
A close friend of Ivanov, Sergei Borodin, was also charged with conspiring to take bribes.