Regional food production must adapt to warming world
Mohammad Yunus says heatwaves in Southeast Asia are leading to disruptions in rice supplies
Agrim record-breaking milestone was reached in 2023, as it was identified as the hottest year in recorded history. Regrettably, the trend continues into 2024, as evidenced by the alarming data for March: global temperatures have surged to unprecedented levels, surpassing those of previous decades by 0.73 degrees Celsius, and notably exceeding the pre-industrial benchmark by 1.68 degrees.
Southeast Asia, home to more than 600 million people, is currently experiencing a rise in the number of heatwaves. This phenomenon correlates with escalating occurrences of El Nino.
In Minbu, central Myanmar, a historic peak of 44 degrees was seen, marking the first instance in Southeast Asia’s recorded history that temperatures reached that high so early in the month. Hat Yai, in southern Thailand, recorded a temperature of 40.2 degrees, setting a record. Similarly, Yen Chau, in Vietnam, experienced a temperature of 40.6 degrees.
Southeast Asia is an important riceproducing region, accounting for 26 per cent of global rice production and 40 per cent of global exports. It serves as a primary rice supplier to various regions, including Africa and the Middle East.
As a staple food for over half the world’s population, rice is one of the most vital crops in ensuring global food security. As a semi-aquatic plant, it needs substantial water resources. Heatwaves thus pose a threat to production.
In Indonesia, last year’s drought led to disruptions in rice supplies and fluctuations in prices. This year, rice production fell from 31.53 million tonnes to 30.9 million tonnes. Notably, rice prices increased in February relative to the previous year.
In Vietnam, earlier this year, water levels reached such low levels that farmers were struggling to transport crops. To address the requirements for agricultural production, farmers have been forced to pump water into their fields from elsewhere. Consequently, a significant disparity has arisen between the road surface at the riverbank and the water level beneath, causing subsidence and landslides.
In Thailand, declining crop yields resulting from high temperatures and El Nino are anticipated to lead to an 8 per cent increase in farmer debt this year. Similarly, in Malaysia, extreme heat and El Nino conditions have forced farmers to defer the planting season. Typically, farmers in Southeast Asia undertake two planting seasons a year, yet current circumstances have meant a reduction to one for some.
Southeast Asian communities must take urgent action to adapt and safeguard their livelihoods. Proactive adaptation strategies can be implemented with the help of drought-resistant varieties of rice, diversified crops, efficient irrigation practices and early warning systems.
Researchers in Southeast Asia have developed rice varieties resilient to water scarcity. The International Rice Research Institute, headquartered in the Philippines, has introduced numerous drought-tolerant rice strains.
Additionally, researchers in Indonesia have identified 11 drought-tolerant rice strains. These exhibit the capacity to survive with low water availability compared to conventional rice, thereby aiding farmers in mitigating the risk of crop failure.
While rice remains a crucial staple crop, there is an urgent need for farmers in Southeast Asia to broaden their agricultural commodities beyond conventional rice cultivation. Introducing alternative crops such as millet, cassava and sorghum can significantly enhance the resilience and sustainability of the agricultural sector.
These crops exhibit greater tolerance to drought and heat, and boast high nutritional value. Certain varieties are even regarded as “superfoods”. They serve as optimal candidates for crop rotation, fostering soil health and diminishing reliance on chemical inputs. Diversification also yields environmental benefits by alleviating the strain that monocultures exert on soil health while also affording farmers diversified income sources.
One effective irrigation strategy is alternate wetting and drying, a water management technique where rice fields undergo partial drainage, aimed at maintaining soil moisture without constant flooding.
In Vietnam, a pilot initiative of the strategy, facilitated by collaboration between university researchers and farmers, uses a smartphone app to enable farmers to conserve water by utilising sensor networks and water pumps, directly linking them to their fields. Consequently, this approach helps reduce the quantity of water required for rice cultivation.
Conventional weather forecasts frequently lack the level of detail required for informed agricultural decision-making. Early warning systems alleviate this limitation by giving out heatwave forecasts customised to distinct regions and microclimates.
Equally important is the dissemination of these forecasts to farmers. Southeast Asia can adopt a model akin to India’s approach, wherein the National Disaster Management Authority plans to augment the early warning system by extending communication channels beyond text messages to include television, radio and other platforms.
Embracing such proactive adaptation strategies not only enhances resilience to heatwaves but also contributes to the sustainability and prosperity of agricultural livelihoods in the region. Collaborative efforts between researchers, policymakers and farmers offer hope that Southeast Asia can navigate the challenges posed by heatwaves and ensure food security for its growing population.
Southeast Asian communities must take urgent action to adapt and safeguard their livelihoods