Mutual need should stop deterioration in US-China ties for now
The visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China, including a meeting with President Xi Jinping, continues high-level Beijing and Washington contacts restored after last November’s summit between Xi and President Joe Biden. Xi noted some progress in bilateral relations in his talks with Blinken, according to the Chinese side, but called on the United States not to say one thing and do another, and to keep its promises. Blinken voiced concerns about China supplying goods to Russia that could have military uses and alleged manufacturing overcapacity, which is blamed for disrupting foreign markets.
Yet again, in the absence of progress on the most challenging issues, one of the most important results was agreement to continue high-level dialogue, including talks in the next few weeks on artificial intelligence (AI). That said, the main focus of Blinken’s trip was not economic but geopolitical – to press China over the Russian issue. Washington accuses Beijing of supporting Russia’s military-industrial complex and helping enable its war against Ukraine. The US and its allies want to avoid further deterioration of Ukraine’s military position before more US military aid makes a difference.
This is also partly a tactic to drive a wedge between China and Europe, where there is deep disquiet about the Ukraine conflict. Blinken has repeatedly stressed the importance of European security. This is a calculated approach. Xi is visiting Europe soon and Washington wants to highlight the Ukraine issue. It is also aimed at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China next month, his first to a foreign country since the start of his latest term. China will have to strike a balance, which will test Xi’s diplomatic skills.
The tone of the Chinese account of Blinken’s meetings with Xi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi was largely conciliatory, with no direct mention of Ukraine. A statement stressed that China was not interested in forming any alliances, ruling out direct involvement in the war and direct support for Moscow. But given that Russia is an important strategic partner and market for Chinese electronics goods and automobiles – thanks to Western sanctions – it will be impossible for Beijing to stop such trade.
Blinken knows that. The real intention is to create problems for Beijing ahead of Xi’s visit. China instead focused on bilateral issues such as AI governance, narcotics controls and people exchanges. Climate is also a major area for bilateral cooperation with China’s new envoy visiting America soon. Xi repeated that China does not seek to challenge the US but also wants Washington to respect its core interests. The US also needs China to help on a wide range of issues, including Iran’s role in the Middle East conflict. So the overall relationship should remain stable, if contentious.