US should realise it is too late to try to contain Beijing

Daniel Wagner says unlike the Soviet Union in the 1980s, China has a highly diversified economy and capable defences making it unlikely to collapse

Some prominent voices in Washington have been arguing that the United States should adopt a cold war-style approach to contain China. They frame the Biden administration’s policy of attempting to find a middle ground through detente as naive and believe that only a hardline approach, similar to former US president Ronald Reagan’s to the Soviet Union, will effectively counter Beijing.

But this presumption is based on a false premise. Today’s China bears little resemblance to the 1980s-era Soviet Union, which suffered from having a flawed governing ideology and an economic foundation that was completely inadequate.

Well before the Soviet Union fell apart, its state-run economy was largely isolated from the global economy, primarily dependent on extractive industries and already in the process of collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.

During the 1980s, the Soviet Union’s gross domestic product was always less than US$4 trillion. Foreign trade accounted for a mere 4 per cent of its gross national product in 1985.

By contrast, China is a highly diversified economic goliath with a blend of public and private sectors. Despite its current economic and financial challenges, China remains at the epicentre of global manufacturing and is growing by around 5 per cent per year.

Nearly 90 per cent of its exports are derived from its vibrant private sector. China’s GDP is almost US$18 trillion. It accounts for 14 per cent of global trade and is the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries. It bears little resemblance to the former Soviet Union.

The collapse of the Soviet Union had far more to do with its own inherent contradictions and the vicissitudes of the global economy than with any actions the United States took to hasten its demise. The truth is that the US’ efforts at regime change or containment have not always worked.

Consider its grand failures in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, for example, or its more recent inability to stop the Houthis from disrupting global shipping in the Red Sea.

Since the US failed in its quests with these arguably less challenging countries, just imagine how immense its failure would likely be in attempting to do the same with China.

Given China’s domestic crackdown on any form of opposition, willingness to target foreign companies within its borders, continued effort to broaden its soft power around the world, desire for intellectual property dominance and growing military might, it is foolhardy to imagine that the Communist Party will collapse any time in the near or medium term, or that it would not be a fearsome opponent in time of war.

Like-minded pundits and politicians in Washington live in an alternative reality, believing that most the world would join the US in a containment strategy or war against China.

They appear to have little knowledge of modern-day China, its global relationships, influence or military and diplomatic capabilities.

These people seem to believe that we are still in the 1950s, when the US could simply snap its fingers and much of the world would follow its lead. That era is long gone.

The US’ ability to cobble together majorities in the United Nations has been greatly reduced over the past decades as its allies have questioned some of its foreign policies.

Moreover, many of those same allies wonder whether some of the agreements they have signed with Washington are worth the paper they are printed on. Given this shift, is there any real reason to believe that a policy of containment against China would attract enough support from US allies that would enable it to work?

Let us not forget that China is the US’ first proper peer competitor since the end of the Cold War. If containment was going to be implemented against China by the US, it should have been done 30 years ago, when Beijing was comparatively weak and Washington’s alliances were comparatively strong.

The Chinese genie has been out of the bottle for too long to imagine that containment is even possible. The Communist Party knows that.

How come the masters of the universe in Washington do not?