EU official: End of the road for solution
A SENIOR European official who believed the time was ripe for a federal settlement in Cyprus has declared “the end of the road” for such a solution.
Nathalie Tocci, director of Italy’s International Affairs Institute and special adviser to EU High Representative Federica Mogherini, said she had been confident of agreement at a peace summit in the Swiss resort of Crans-Montana in the summer — and admitted she had been mistaken.
Writing in the latest edition of Europe’s World, published by the Friends of Europe think-tank, Ms Tocci said: “I was sure that for the first time since 1963 there was an unprecedented alignment of the stars that would have allowed a reunification in Cyprus. At no other time were the leaders of the two communities . . . so committed to peace at the same time. I was wrong.
“On July 7, when United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres walked into his press conference in Crans-Montana and declared with a low voice that the week-long talks . . . had ended in failure, I asked myself the uncomfortable question: have we reached the end of the federal road in Cyprus? “I fear the answer is yes.” She said the Cyprus conflict seemed “so eminently solvable” — yet former UN special envoy Espen Barth Eide was just the “latest victim” in a chain of diplomats who had come and gone during failed peace efforts.
“Since 1974, with the exception of sporadic incidents, there is no violence on the island. Since 2003 the green line separating north from south has been open. Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots can freely cross the unrecognised border, visiting, shopping and, in the case of many Turkish Cypriots who have obtained citizenship in the Republic, work in the south and in the rest of the Union,” she wrote.
“It would be too much to say that there is no animosity between the communities. But compared to the other conflicts just a few miles from the island’s shores, from the Balkans to Libya, from the Caucasus to Syria, from Yemen to Palestine, Cyprus is an island of tranquility [sic].”
She added: “So what explains this litany of failures in Cyprus? . . . Paradoxically, or perhaps not, it is the relative calm on the island and satisfaction with the status quo that makes a solution so elusive. Any peace agreement inevitably requires painful compromises for each party to the conflict.”
While the “broad outlines of a deal” had been known for decades, “what is missing is the political will to walk the extra mile and make the necessary step into the unknown”.
Reflecting on July’s latest failure, Ms Tocci said responsibility was “not so clear-cut”. She described Turkey as “not ideologically opposed” to a federal Cyprus, but with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s “incentive to go the extra mile . . . diluted” by the desire to appeal to nationalists. Meanwhile Greece, “in principle well disposed towards a deal . . . did not play a particularly helpful role”.
“Finally, the Greek Cypriots, nearing the finishing line of the negotiation, raised the bar too high concerning the withdrawal of Turkey’s military rights and presence in Cyprus.”
While “the Turkish Cypriots — who live in an unrecognised state with all the downsides that implies — have a clear interest in reaching a federal compromise”, she said, “the uncomfortable truth is that for too many the status quo is preferable to a peace agreement”.
“Alas, those who end up with the short straw — as always — are the weaker party to the conflict: the Turkish Cypriot community that is being progressively absorbed against its will into Turkey itself.”