Why Ireland’s problem is a headache for Cyprus

They are islands on the fringes of the European Union; two former British colonies that struggled for independence and became friends with their old rulers once they had achieved it.

They are both partitioned countries that have known the pain of internal conflict. And the future of one of them, Cyprus, now depends on steps taken in the other, Ireland. The complex negotiations over Brexit have made progress and provisional agreements have been reached on a number of tricky issues.

For Cyprus it is only a matter of dotting the Is and crossing the Ts on a deal that will still keep trade channels open and secure rights of residents for the thousands of British expats who have made this island their home. But negotiations have been conducted on the basis that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and a huge disagreement about the Irish border could still bring it all down.

Ireland was partitioned more than 50 years before Cyprus suffered the same fate. An area containing about a quarter of that island’s population remained a part of the United Kingdom while the rest became an independent republic.

For 40 years and more the border across the island was a very real frontier. Private motorists who crossed it had to show documentation and stick a travel permit on their windscreens.

Commercial vehicles were checked by customs officers, leading to long queues and big delays. Citizens of the Republic who wanted to work in Northern Ireland had to get an employment permit, although, oddly, there was no such requirement if they took a job in Britain itself. All this ended in 1973 when Britain and Ireland, along with Denmark, joined what was to become the European Union.

But the open border did not last long. Paramilitary groups seeking Irish unity began a campaign of terror and the customs officers on the border were replaced by soldiers from both Ireland and Britain, with particularly heavy security on the British side.

An agreement signed in 1998 brought peace to Ireland and the border is now just a token line on the map. There are no barriers to crossing it; indeed, it would be difficult to know you had crossed except that the Republic’s speed limits are in kilometres and North’s in miles per hour.

Nobody wants to see a return to the economic border of the Forties and Fifties. The great fear is that such a development would also see a return of the terrorists and the much harder border of the Seventies and Eighties.

Although neither London nor Dublin wants a restoration of the border it is proving difficulty to avoid.

Northern Ireland’s citizens had a vote in the UK’s Brexit referendum and chose, with almost 56% in favour, to stay in the EU along with the Republic.

But the North’s biggest political party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), was in favour of Brexit and that party is now backing Theresa May and securing a majority in the House of Commons for her shaky minority government.

The DUP is fiercely opposed to any measure that would see Northern Ireland treated differently from the rest of the UK and therefore turned down a remarkably generous deal which would have left it within the Customs Union for trade purposes but, otherwise, outside the EU along with Britain.

It was a ‘best of both worlds’ offer that many countries might have jumped at. But the DUP said ‘No’ and have been backed in their stance by the ardent Brexiteers in Mrs May’s Conservative Party, creating a dilemma for both the Brexiteers and Ireland’s prime minister, Leo Varadkar.

Dublin is determined that there will be no deal on Brexit which restores a border in Ireland. It would be happy enough with an agreement that left the whole of the UK in the Customs Union or something as close to it as makes no difference.

Mrs May seems willing to accept a compromise of this sort but it is doubtful if she can get it past the Brexiteers in her Cabinet, never mind her party. Their dilemma is that if they bring down the government Labour might win the subsequent election and dump both Mrs May and the DUP. Mr Varadkar’s dilemma is that if he pushes too hard Britain may leave the EU without a deal and there will then be a hard border whether he likes it or not.

The dilemma for everyone in Cyprus, expats and Cypriots alike, is that while our future depends on an Irish settlement, there is little we can do to influence it.

Keeping our fingers crossed is not a great strategy, but unfortunately that’s about as good as it gets. Michael Doherty is CEO of the Woodbrook Group in Limassol. Tel: +357 25272820 www.woodbrookgroup.com