UAE’s debacle with Iran and Israel
Moves toward normalisation with Tehran jeopardise the Abraham Accords
The United Arab Emirates is the latest in a wave of Gulf countries that have signed normalization agreements with Iran, as the region seeks to make amends amid U.S. disengagement and elevated tensions. Following Saudi Arabia’s surprise trilateral agreement last month with Iran and China that put both regional foes on track to normalize relations, Gulf states like Bahrain have rushed to repair ties with Tehran.
And now, Iran has reinstated its ambassador to Abu Dhabi as a sign of goodwill ahead of a much-anticipated meeting between the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers in Beijing and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s potential visit to Saudi Arabia. The announcement follows a visit from Iran’s top security official, Ali Shamkhani, to the UAE in March.
Yet while Saudi Arabia appears the regional trendsetter in engaging Iran, the UAE has quietly led from behind, building economic ties and exploring diplomatic avenues with Tehran for years. Emirati officials have long been preparing for a regional reopening with Iran, with the objective of moderating the Iranian government’s behavior and posture in the region.
However, making nice with Iran has complicated the UAE’s rapprochement with Israel under the 2020 Abraham Accords, forcing it to try to balance two tracks of normalization.
UAE-Iranian Relations
The UAE and Iran share a fraught, complex history. The two countries are separated by just 70 kilometers of water in the Strait of Hormuz, but despite their geographic proximity, their foreign policy visions could not be more different.
When Iranian protesters set fire to the Saudi Embassy following Riyadh’s execution of prominent Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr in January 2016, the UAE joined many of its neighbors in severing diplomatic relations with Iran. Iranian sponsorship of Shiite proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen exacerbated tensions with the UAE and its Gulf allies, while the buildup of Iran’s nuclear program created deep distrust.
Still, the UAE continually sought new avenues for engagement with Tehran in hopes of one day changing the Iranian regime’s policy. Engagement has primarily been along economic lines, concentrated on the trade of chemical products, machinery, vegetables and foodstuffs.
The UAE is one of Iran’s top trading partners, despite frozen diplomatic ties and repeated attacks on the UAE and its Gulf neighbors by Iranian-sponsored groups. But by the late 2010s, often after close calls involving Iranian attacks on Gulf soil, the UAE and Iran began to dispatch officials for occasional visits to their respective capitals to discuss shared security concerns, deescalation and normalization.
The UAE’s national security adviser, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has represented his country in Tehran, visiting in 2019, after an Iranian attack on oil tankers off the Emirati coast, and again in late 2021. In 2022, when Iran expressed interest in normalization, the UAE reinstated its ambassador to Tehran after a six-year diplomatic absence.
The UAE still harbors deep and long-standing resentment toward Iran over territorial control over the Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands, regional influence, and Iran’s use of armed proxies.
However, incremental U.S. military and political disengagement from the Middle East has left the UAE (and many of its Gulf neighbors) to either risk regional escalation or make amends. Through a sudden wave of engagement, it is clear that the UAE and its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council have chosen the latter.
Balancing Act
Recent overtures between the UAE and Iran have upset Israel, a regional player that will not change its adversarial stance on Iran anytime soon, perceiving the country as an existential threat.
As a leader in the 2020 Abraham Accords, the UAE has forged a parallel track of normalization with Israel. Both countries have worked to deepen ties in tourism, infrastructure investment, trade and cybersecurity, although defense collaboration is still a distant prospect.
However, regional normalization with Iran threatens to disrupt the momentum of the Abraham Accords, no matter how carefully the UAE and its partners try to balance their relations. Furthermore, the UAE has distanced itself from Israel as the latter has threatened military action against a nuclear-armed Iran and its proxies.
Just weeks before a scheduled January visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the UAE reportedly rescinded the invitation due to concerns that Netanyahu would make incendiary anti-Iran remarks that would jeopardize ongoing rapprochement efforts. Netanyahu’s office said the visit was canceled due to scheduling issues.
To sustain the momentum of the Abraham Accords but keep Israel at arm’s length as the Gulf pursues normalization with Iran, the UAE has sought to limit engagement under the Abraham Accords primarily to tourism, business and trade. But Israel’s opposition to growing Iranian influence in the region and repeated attacks through its proxies in Lebanon and Syria may create a headache for the UAE as it undertakes this balancing act.