Arabeya Online forecasts EGP to depreciate against USD by 6.4% to EGP 19.1 gradually by end 2019
Establishing mechanism of liberalisation oil price in Egypt, linking it with global costs
Arabeya Online for Securities Brokerage forecasts the depreciation of the EGP against the USD by 6.4% to reach EGP 19.1 gradually by end 2019.
Moreover, the real estate and construction sector will be considerably contributing in the GDP, albeit by a slow growth rate, however the sector’s performance will be better than overall macroeconomic market segments.
Arabya Online also forecasts, for the total balance of payments in 2019, the decline in revenues of the Suez Canal due to slower global trade flow, rising tourism revenues, maintaining the high levels of Egyptian labour abroad, and improvements in trade balance deficit due to the decrease of oil imports as a result of decrease in local of consumption.
Additionally, Arabya Online expects the stabilisation of direct foreign investment (FDIs) at $7bn in fiscal year (FY) 2019 compared to $7.7bn in FY 2018 and the external debt rise to reach $120bn in FY 2019 compared to $93bn in FY 2018.
Moreover, Arabya Online predicts a decline in the fiscal balance with a growing crisis of emerging markets and a volatile market condition, amid signs of slow global economic growth and growing uncertainties concerning the financial markets which leads to weaknesses of portfolio investments.
Furthermore, Arabya Online analysts speculate that EGX30 to carry on rising to reach 16.900 points—an increase of 30%.
Over and above, Arab Online projects am improvement in balance trade deficit due to the decrease of oil imports, as a result of contracted consumption, the low levels of global crude oil prices, and establishing a mechanism of liberalising the price of oil in Egypt followed by linking it with global oil costs.