Towards a new global order

Today I carry on with my follow up on the changes reverberated by the Russia Ukraine war. More and more, it looks like the global order is approaching a restructure that would in all probability put an end to the hegemony of a single superpower and go back to multi polar strategic balance. To achieve this, the world might need to start by curbing tyranny and arrogance, until we could possibly aspire for harmony and cooperation. I will review here some of the changes I have observed.

First are changes related to China. In an interview with al-Jazeerah, an economy expert from China commented on Saudi Arabia’s decision to accept the yuan in payment for its oil, especially if other Gulf States follow suit. He said the move heralds the downfall of the US dollar, which would mark the beginning of the demise of the American empire. According to the Chinese expert, this is not the end of the road of Saudi hostility towards the US Democratic Party and President Biden’s policies. That hostility started with President Biden pointing fingers at the Saudi Crown Prince regarding the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and proceeded through the obvious agreement of the US administration with Iran’s policy in the Arab region—an agreement which did not sit well with Saudi Arabia—let alone previous declarations by former President Trump that Saudis must pay for US “protection”.

Now, the Chinese economist said, Saudi Arabia has refused to pump more oil to compensate for the shortage of oil on global markets, a shortage caused by the West’s boycott of Russian oil, and is accepting the yuan as payment for its oil deals. It is only a matter of time, he said, before China sits on top of world economy, especially given the huge Chinese investments around the world. He reminded of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative, a modern day revival of the ancient Silk Road that carried Chinese goods to all parts of the world. He also pointed to several examples of China’s leadership: how it turned from mere imitation of western technology to pioneering its own initiatives in that field. China, he said, manufactured the Shanghai Maglev (the high speed magnetic train), and the electric car which set European car manufacturers off balance. China also ventured on treating coal to use it as a cleaner source of energy, and went after generating power from clean sources including wind and sun, to say nothing of its wondrous “artificial sun”. China has also achieved huge leaps in the civil aviation industry, putting an end to the monopoly of the American Boeing and the European Airbus. Also on its record is the great achievement by the gigantic Huawei in G5 technology, internet speed, smart cities and self-driving vehicles. China has excelled in military industries, satellites, and laser weapons. So it looks, he said, like the Chinese dragon is about to push Mama America away from the scene.

It would be no surprise if the Russia Ukraine crisis ends the current international status and the cordial Chinese European relations, especially with France and Germany. It could also end the era of the US as the single global superpower, especially now that it has become obvious that the US cannot defend or protect Europe, and that European countries should unfetter themselves from the agreements that have long tied them with US and prevented them from forming economic partnerships with China.

My comment on the al-Jazeerah interview is that it is self-evident that China is working hard to reach a multi polar world, led not by the US alone, which every so often wields sanctions as a weapon, applying sanctions at whim and according to a double standard agenda.

The second major change I can detect on the global scene concerns Russia. It was widely expected that, in response to the economic sanctions and boycott of Russian trade imposed by the US and the EU, Russia would cut off the supply of Russian gas to Europe. Russia, however, did nothing of the sort, but rather decided to sell its gas for rubles instead of US dollars or euros. The Russian decision left Europe with two options: either to give up Russian gas, which is almost impossible, or to comply with the Russian decision which defies the boycott, rattles the throne of the US dollar, and gives the ruble a foothold on international currency markets. Furthermore, once the US shut Russia out of the SWIFT banking system across the world, Russia resorted to using CIPS for its overseas banking transactions with the countries with which it enjoys strategic relations, using the yuan. Although the CIPS is still a much smaller system than SWIFT, it can be used in the future to curb the impact of American European economic sanctions against Russia and China. Russia is also working on empowering its SPFS which is used internally in Russia. SPFS was launched by the Russian Central Bank in 2014 in the wake of threats by the US to cut off Russian banks from SWIFT. SPFS went into use in 2017, and one year later had 400 Russian financial institutions using it. Russia then strove to make a number of its allies use it, including Turkey and Iran. It is also connected to similar systems in China, India and Sates of the Eurasian Economic Union. It is true that SPFS still does not measure up to SWIFT, yet looking at the current situation, Russia’s efforts could result in a parallel multi polar global financial system in place of the current system that is prone to political bending. Noteworthy is that Russia and Iran are currently considering adopting the Russian card Mir for payments in Iran after most western credit card companies withdrew from the Russian market. Last but not least, news have been circulating to the effect that Serbia is looking into a ten year deal to import Russian gas and pay for it in rubles.

It is thus obvious that while the US and its European partners—not allies—planned to bring Russia to its knees and kick it out of the global market, Russia defied the measures taken against it and established alternative paths, systems and coalitions that would allow it to restructure the global order upon standards of multi polarity and respect of the other, whether through coercion or inducement.