Some African countries still not banning Russia?

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ago, *ood *overn ance Africa **A released a press statement that 9ladimir 3utin was µfast escalating the kind of brinkmanship which history teaches us will lead to an other world war if it is not skilfully contained. The repercussions of this behaviour are truly global, and the negative impact on African countries cannot be overstated¶.

A year later, we do not yet have a world war, but African countries have been impacted severely by Russia¶s unwarranted invasion of Ukraine. 0any pre &29,' gains against poverty have been decimated, food security concerns have ramped up and inflation eats at any real wage gains made prior to . ,t would have been a challenge to recover from the pandemic without further supply chain and global energy disruptions wrought by the war.

*lobally, *'3 growth is e[pect ed to slow significantly in . The (conomist ,ntelligence Unit (,U forecasts µfull year recessions in *ermany, )rance, ,taly and the 1etherlands, as well as in the U.¶. 0onetary tightening in the U6 will probably lead to economic stagnation there.

:hile this is relatively good news for keeping global interest rates stable, it does mean less demand for African products in key (uropean and U6 markets. *'3 growth in sub 6a haran Africa is forecast by the (,U at . per cent for .

,t does not help that 6outh Africa¶s growth forecast by the (,U ± the biggest economy in southern Africa ± is at . per cent, as growth in the bigger economies typically drives growth in smaller, neighbouring countries. 6outh Africa¶s own Re serve Bank put the figure at a dismal . per cent.

0oreover, the protracted war and &hina¶s reversal of its disastrous ]ero &29,' policy will keep oil prices at upwards of U6 barrel until the end of . This is tempo rarily good for the revenue basket of African oil e[porting countries, but oil wealth continues to show up in econometric regressions as strongly associated with underdevelopment. ,n other words, it is always a Tuestion of where the oil money lands up and what is done with it.

,nvariably, in the absence of good governance, oil rents accrue to rul ing elites whose incentive to build a broad ta[ base is essentially absent. Repression of citi]ens and co opta tion of formidable opponents become easy options. 0oreover, high oil prices ironically fund unsustaina ble fuel subsidies for imported fuel made from the very crude oil African countries such as 1igeria and Angola possess.

OIL

1ot only will oil prices remain high, but grains and fertilisers will be difficult to access. These are key inputs for domestic food security and African countries continue to suffer the double burden of these high input costs and climate change impacts reducing food production.

,t is not clear that Russia will con tinue implementing the grains deal that allows for the safe passage of food supplies out of Ukraine to global markets, especially as it comes under increasing sanctions pressure. Russia, of course, attempted to weaponise the (U¶s dependence on its gas, but that policy has largely backfired, even though energy bills have gone through the roof. Aside from the eco nomics, the other maMor implication *ood *overnance Africa warned against was the geopolitical impact of Russia¶s aggression ³3utin¶s aggres sion has undermined the very fabric of a post &old :ar order that Russia has been integral to maintaining. ,ts actions make a mockery of the U1 6ecurity &ouncil of which it is a permanent member.

The fact that 3utin has openly threatened the nuclear option is brink manship on a new level.´ African countries have become ripe for old &old :ar rivalries to again manifest. Business 'ay wrote in an editorial last week ³:hen our navy sails into formation with a Russian frigate to day, we are sending a series of clear messages to the world. The first is that we don¶t care that people of Ukraine are being bombed, kidnapped, raped and e[ecuted in mass killings. :e¶re happy to give the 3utin regime a platform to proMect international solidarity on the anniversary of their illegal and inhumane invasion of a sovereign country.´

SOLIDARITY

The editorial found it difficult to e[plain this solidarity, even given historical ties between the former U66R ironically including Ukraine and the A1&. ,ndeed, it would be very difficult to rationalise 6outh Africa¶s position in any kind of co herent foreign policy analysis terms. The )inancial Times reported that at a global security meeting in 0unich, *ermany, this week, the 1amibian prime minister 6aara .uugongel wa Amadhile said that 1amibia was focused on ³resolving the problem, not on shifting blame « the bottom line is that money used to buy weap ons would be better used to promote development in Ukraine, in Africa, in Asia, in the (U itself where many people are facing hardships¶.

But this is poor reasoning at best, as it creates a false dichotomy. ,t suggests that one can simply go on developing countries as if there is no war. ,t sounds ridiculous but clearly it must be said that Ukraine would find it immeasurably difficult to invest in µdevelopment¶ while its cities are being bombed. The only plausible defence against continued Russian assaults seems to invest in weaponry that will repel it.

,t is not either µmoney for guns¶ or µmoney for development¶ there can be no development until the guns stop and they clearly won¶t stop if Ukraine Must stops defending itself. 0ost African countries who abstained

of the nations from the U1 motions to condemn Russian aggres sion have argued, like 6outh African ,nternational Relations 0inister 1a ledi 3andor, that it is µsimplistic and infantile¶ to think that international condemnation or calls for Russian withdrawal will change 3utin¶s mind. That seems to be missing the point. The Russian leader has hardly shown himself amenable to negotiation.

CONDEMNING

,t remains the case that the African countries most likely to abstain from condemning Russia are those which import the highest volumes of arms from Russia as a proportion of total military eTuipment imports.

This is the realpolitik of the situ ation and it seems to render leaders incapable of discerning strategic foreign policy errors.

A year on from 3utin¶s wrong head ed invasion of Ukraine, the world is in turmoil, the poor suffer the most, and African leaders seem unable to find a backbone to condemn Russia.

,n 6outh Africa¶s case, it plays naval games with the aggressor, and &hina, though its navy is sorely dilapidated. As the global geopolitical fault lines deepen, African countries seem to increasingly be at sea.

Ross +arvey is the 'irector of Research and 3rogrammes at *ood *overnance Africa, a non profit, independent, pan African applied policy research think tank. willpower, you will in turn have more willpower than the average person. This means that when you believe you have a predetermined supply of willpower, you are right :hen you believe you have an in finite supply of willpower, you¶re right about that too

The beliefs you hold dictate the world around you. The limitations you put on yourself are the lim itations that also hold you back. &reate a new narrative for yourself, one in which you are empowered to achieve your goals, and you will transform limitations into strengths. +ow you look at things coupled with some confidence in yourself will go a long way in helping you achieve your goals. &onfidence is the belief you have in yourself to achieve your goals. Approaching a task with confi dence will decrease the willpower reTuired to complete said task, and feelings of self doubt and insecu rity will begin to melt away. 1o matter what always pull yourself together and shoot for the stars

³A diamond is Must a piece of charcoal that handled stress e[cep tionally well.´ aUnknown

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