The price is high

OVER the past two years an unfamiliar sound has emerged in the aisles of retail outlets. It’s a sort of gasp; a vocal mixture of surprise, dismay and concern. It comes from the person standing before a commodity of choice on the shelf; a reaction to the latest price increase. No expletives; shoppers are polite in Eswatini.

Prices have surged over the past two years and the reasons are: COVID-19, the Ukraine-Russia war and profiteering by companies. When COVID-19 launched itself mercilessly across the world, the global supply chain was damaged almost irreparably. With limited international access, companies closed down, with the shipment of goods severely affected. Shipping costs increased, with demand exceeding supply; prices went higher.

Oil

Then, in October 2022, OPEC, the 13 countries’ group responsible for the bulk of the world supply of oil, reduced output by two million barrels a day, ostensibly to avoid price volatility. A shallow excuse; perhaps just taking advantage; they’ve done it before. That decision pushed up oil prices further, contributing to higher transportation costs.

Then came the Russia-Ukraine war. Reductions in Russian oil exports and Ukrainian food exports have led to shortages and price hikes. And, finally, analysts and politicians allege that many companies have pushed up prices above the rate of inflation. A New York Times report stated that more than 2 000 companies, in its survey, had been introducing excessively inflated prices in that manner. We can point out more than one or two over this side of the Atlantic.

Question number one: Will prices come down when that appalling carnage ceases in Ukraine? Of course not. The more practical approach is to hope that there is a drop in the rate at which prices are increasing.

Humanitarian

So the second question simply focuses on the extremely serious humanitarian issue: When and how do we think the Russia-Ukraine war will end?

If there’s a magic wand available that could stop the conflict overnight it’s in the hands of China. But China doesn’t want peace in Ukraine to happen; and for one simple reason. It considers the United States to be the hegemoth; that is, a huge and monstrous creature that wants to control the modern world. And China wants the USA humiliated in having actively supported the losing side – Ukraine.

At the same time, China has been lobbying in Europe while its ally, Russia, proceeds with telling outright lies to African countries. Russia and China are both in the neo-colonialisation process, China especially so with its massive infrastructure loans, swapped for large chunks of the respective countries when they fail to service the debt; a common characteristic among so many countries. Some of them unashamedly think public funds are to be grabbed and played with; with poor detectability and almost no accountability.

Indeed China teamed up with Russia last week by refusing, at the G20 talks in India, to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. How can China possibly justify that? Ironically it had recently published a 12-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine, in which it called for peace talks and respect for national sovereignty. The China plan did not, however, specifically say that Russia must withdraw its troops from Ukraine, and did not condemn Russia’s invasion.

That position inevitably begs the question – to what extent would China go in order to turn an implicit support for Russia, into an explicit one with the supply of lethal arms. It is already assisting in non-lethal terms through unimpeded trade in both directions. The view on the street – that, I’m afraid, is where most of the opinions languish – is that China seeks to expand its influence in the world while simultaneously reducing that of the USA. But it wouldn’t want to shoot itself in the foot by helping to escalate the war, not least because it relies on the West for the bulk of its trade. Look underneath most of what you buy each day. Made in … ? Yes, you got it.

Ukraine

So what’s going to happen with Ukraine? The end appears to be nowhere in sight. Ukraine needs more equipment and ammunition than the West – mainly the USA – has hitherto been able to provide. Fighter aircraft would make a big difference but it is a dangerous red line that the West seems reluctant to cross. Ukraine – that is, the physical components of the country – is getting slowly and irreversibly destroyed. What need to be exterminated are the ghosts of the Soviet Empire, the latter having crashed in 1991; something that is driving Putin and Co obsessively into this merciless destruction of thousands of Ukrainians as well as close to a thousand Russian soldiers each day. The scale of Putin’s folly is extraordinary but he is now in up to his neck. Retreat would mean disgrace and perhaps more for him. Perhaps the only way to end the war is for China to take a collaborative and responsible big-player role and advise Putin to cooperate in a peace deal with Ukraine. Sadly, the hoped-for Zelenskyy/Xi Jinping meeting is unlikely to trigger that.