America isolation, new world order

I Nlast week’s article, we analyzed the catalyst that spurred the peak and gradual decline of the American empire. We saw the migration of jobs from the western world to new capitalist centres of the east and global south; the working class hollowing out within America and Western European capitalist countries. The global economic centres are shifting towards the east and creating new economic powers.

The intention of my articles is purely to inform and educate interested emaSwati and, possibly, some Americans about geopolitical and global events that have a profound impact on the future of our tiny kingdom. I have nothing against the people of the United States (US). The fact that Eswatini remains the only African country aligned with Taiwan against Mainland China has a lot to do with our relationship with the US than our long history with Taiwan. Hence, we should understand the geopolitical trajectory of America in relation to the global economy.

True global economy

Make no mistake, the US economy remains the largest globally. With a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$23.32 trillion, it’s by far the world’s largest economy. It is followed by China with a GDP of US$17.73 trillion. Basically, the US GDP, as a percentage of world GDP, is at 24.15 per cent, down from an annual average of 28.81 per cent. The US also has the largest gold reserves in the world, at 8.133 tons, more than Germany and Italy combined. The US also has the highest gold allocation as a percentage of its foreign reserves, at approximately 76 per cent. Finally, according to data from Forbes, the US has the highest number of billionaires in the world, at 724 billionaires. This is followed by China with 698 billionaires and India with 237 billionaires.

Germany and Russia complete the top five countries with 136 and 117 billionaires respectively. America still has the most stable reserve currency in the Dollar and the world needs it. A bunch of BRICS former enemies can’t provide a stable reserve currency any time soon. However, the Dollar has been abused to punish (through sanctions and currency manipulation) its enemies, instead of fostering international trade. The South African (SA) Rand fell 30 cents just minutes after the American ambassador condemned SA for allegedly selling arms to Russia.

African isolation of US

Giving a proper perspective of the global economy in relation to Africa, here is a shocking fact. Africa’s GDP accounts for only 2.84 per cent of the world GDP in nominal terms. Africa is the second smallest continental economy in the world after Oceania. This is all of Africa including South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya, Egypt and Nigeria put together. One must, thus, understand that capitalist-driven America cannot prioritize Africa where there is no tangible business except in the extraction of natural resources, which, through their many years on the continent, they have full control of already. They believe Africa must be given aid, particularly in health, to keep Africans alive and healthy but not real developmental infrastructure.

Africa must be taught democracy and human rights, particularly the LGBTQI community rights. Funding for that is readily available. No bridges, railways, telecommunication, ports or roads but aid. The infrastructure needed will follow the World Bank and IMF debt trap agenda, which most African countries are still trying to pay back. An example of this is Ukraine gets some US$80 billion at the drop of the hat. Trillions of Dollars were spent to support NATO in overthrowing Gadhafi and Saddam Hussein. However, for years, the Grand Inga Dam in the DRC has been touted as the panacea to sub-Saharan Africa’s power crisis.

It is located in the Congo River, and the third phase of the hydropower scheme is a massive, almost revolutionary, project. Its estimated costs are US$80 billion and it can power Africa and part of Europe with clean energy; American capital is not interested but China is. The same America that is leading the renewable and clean energy agenda is not interested.

This dam could power Africa and even further lasting peace and prosperity in central Africa. China has been providing the much-needed infrastructure. This is the reason African leaders are reluctant to support American geopolitical agendas like supporting the Ukraine war effort.

Global isolation of America

China is brokering peace in the Middle East, which has been difficult for America for many years. On March 10, 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia signed a trilateral agreement with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in Beijing, committing to re-establish ties that had broken down since 2016. China has maintained formal diplomatic and economic ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – each of which back militias involved in Yemen’s war. In fact, China has been intensifying its economic and political connections with all three regional powers. This means that China has a better chance of brokering peace with Yemen, which has also eluded America for many years. Maybe the powerful arms lobby in the US does not want peace. This peace deal means one more nail in the coffin of the petrodollar used for oil and petroleum products trade.

BRICS currency

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS countries) and sanctioned countries have begun to build new institutions that could circumvent their reliance on the Dollar. Thus far banks and governments have relied on the SWIFT network, which is run through the US Federal Reserve. Iran and Russia were cut off from the SWIFT system. After the 2014 US sanctions, Russia created the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), which is mainly designed for domestic users but has attracted central banks from Central Asia, China, India and Iran. In 2015, China created the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), run by the People’s Bank of China, which is gradually being used by other central banks.

As South Africa prepares to host the 15th BRICS Summit in August 2023, it faces a significant challenge in its international relations. On March 17 the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin, what will SA do? On the other hand, 19 more countries, including three African giants, two South American giants and Asian countries are joining BRICS in August. Things are moving very fast and emaSwati must pray for our leaders to take the right path. septembereswatini@ gmail.com