TWO-PARTY THEORY?
People have been doing their own extrapolations on the low voter turnout in various forums including social media. What is a fact is that more than 179,192 did not vote from the 637,527 people registered to vote.
BTL has been analysing the figures and has come up with the following explanation:
1) The figure is made up of those who can’t be bothered to vote for no apparent reason, those who will not vote for reasons best known to themselves and those who could not vote because of the bad weather.
It must be noted that voting is voluntary, not compulsory
2) It would be interesting to see the breakdown of the 179,192 in terms of gender, age, economic and social status plus race. This is because it would influence the final outcome if everyone had voted. It is clear that SODELPA has gained some iTaukei votes which went to FijiFirst in 2014.
NFP through Pio Tikoduadua and Lenora Qereqeretabua also got a slice. Unity Fiji, HOPE and Fiji Labour Party also chipped away.
For SODELPA, it materialised in five more seats in Parliament
3) FijiFirst, it appears retained the majority of the Indo-Fijian votes.
4) But what if the voter turnout was higher? It would have been interesting. Either FijiFirst would have won with a larger majority or the margin could have come down to 26-25 giving FijiFirst a slender lead.
5) It is now clear that in future small parties which have failed to reach the five per cent threshold would suffer the same fate as the People’s Democratic Party and the Fiji United Freedom Party. PDP has been deregistered and FUFP has joined FLP to stay viable. PDP, FLP and FUFP did not win a seat in 2014. In this election, FLP also failed to win a seat.
6) BTL thinks that at this rate, there will only be two parties in Parliament, the Government and the Opposition which will comprise a coalition of two parties. The coalition will become a permanent arrangement.
7) The final phase of this change is all the Opposition parties merging as one under one banner.
RABUKA’S WORDS
SODELPA leader Sitiveni Rabuka told supporters in the last big party rally to accept the outcome of the General Election.
Mr Rabuka turned up at the return of the writ ceremony in Suva on Sunday. It indicated that he accepted the election result. After a thanksgiving church service in Nadera, he then said they would not accept the results until their queries had been satisfactorily answered. Now we hear they are taking the matter to court.
National Federation Party leader Biman Prasad was absent at the writ return ceremony. It indicated he did not accept the outcome. Today he will make it official in a press conference.
But Mr Rabuka appears to have reneged on his word. Could this be linked to a coffee session at the GPH in Suva with Mr Prasad and Fiji Labour Party leader Mahendra Chaudhry after the election?