New Poll Reveals Major Shifts In General Election Landscape

Front runners drop below 30 per cent. ■ ■ Rabuka edges closer to Bainimarama. ■ Prasad, Chaudhry biggest losers. ■ Gavoka bounces back to third place.

The front runners in the election race have both dropped below 30 per cent for the first time in the latest public opinion poll.

The July poll conducted by Western Force Research for the Fiji Sun had Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama and FijiFirst still leading but by the slimmest of margins at 29.5 per cent, dropping from 32.5 per cent in the June poll.

His arch rival, The People’s Alliance leader, Sitiveni Rabuka, edged closer to Mr Bainimarama jumping from 22.5 per cent in the June poll to 28.7 per cent.

In another major shift in the election landscape SODELPA and party leader Viliame Gavoka have bounced back and recaptured lost territory – though by not much but it was significant.

They jumped from 8.4 per cent to 9.9 per cent. They reclaimed the third place, displacing National Federation Party and its leader Professor Biman Prasad who fell from 14.1 per cent in the June poll to 9.8 per cent.

NFP and Professor Prasad joined Fiji Labour Party and its leader Mahendra Chaudhry as the biggest losers. FLP and Mr Chaudhry tumbled from 11.1 per cent in the June poll to 5.5 per cent.

Unity Fiji and its leader Savenaca Narube also lost ground, dropping from 10.3 per cent in June to 8 per cent in July.

The movements underscored the badly fragmented political landscape partly caused by the entry of the new parties, New Generation, We Unite Fiji and Freedom Alliance.

New Generation and its leader Varinava Tiko featured for the first time in the July poll and immediately created an impact.

They leaped over FLP and Mr Chaudhry at 7.9 per cent and almost drew level with Unity Fiji and Mr Narube.

Rupeni Nadalo and We Unite Fiji slid from 1 per cent in the previous poll to 0.6 per cent while Jagath Karunaratne and the Freedom Alliance remained at 0.1 per cent.

The poll showed there were clearly two groups – one comprising the front runners and the second consisting of the rest.

The closeness of the scores indicated that if the election was held today it would go down to the wire.

There would be no clear outright winners. Any coalition to try to form a Government would need more than two parties.

Based on this poll, even The PANFP coalition would not be able to do it. It would need a grand coalition of all Opposition parties but that seems unlikely given the history of earlier failed attempts. SODELPA, Unity Fiji and FLP will not work with Mr Rabuka because of his tainted political record.

It is not clear what position would New Generation, We Unite Fiji and Freedom Alliance take.

First, they have to win a seat in Parliament. It is understood that emissaries from the The PA-NFP coalition are out trying to influence Opposition parties to come together after the election, if they win seats, to form a grand coalition.

From the Government perspec

tive the latest poll would come as a surprise given the National Budget released last month was welcomed by a majority of people from a cross section of our society.

Secondly, the Government had come up with initiatives to help people cope with the rising cost of living.

Could this be attributed to the efforts by Opposition parties to discredit the Government in their propaganda war?

The improving fortunes for Mr Gavoka and SODELPA were tied to the decision by Ro Teimumu

Kepa to put on hold her retirement for the second time to contest the election. She has given the party a new lease of life.

Those who have written off SODELPA may have done it prematurely.

It is not clear why the NFP and FLP lost ground. It could be linked to the delay in the release of their manifestos.

For all the Opposition parties, that could be their game changer.