Volatile World of Foreign Policy
Nouzab Fareed is a consultant specialised in corporate restructuring, business strategy, and governance. He has a Masters of Arts in economics and an MBA. He is a past president of Fiji Institute of Chartered Accountants and past vice president of Fiji Chamber of Commerce. He is on X (@
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Afew days ago, a dramatic change in foreign policy came about as United States President Joe Biden pressed Israel to change its plan for Gaza.
Critics cite the role of swinging states in the upcoming US Presidential election as the sole reason for this change.
In early March, the new proChinese government in Maldives decided to terminate its defence agreement with India and requested India remove its army from Maldives.
In January, Nauru changed its foreign policy and established ties with China leaving Taiwan.
The same was expected from Tuvalu, but has yet to eventuate. Foreign policy is rarely a part of India’s election campaign process, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been an exception.
Fiji has begun the process of developing a foreign policy white paper that will articulate Fiji’s foreign policy priorities and guide Fiji’s international engagement in the future.
Why the nation’s change in foreign policy?
Does external influence play a role? Will a new government in the future will follow the same?
What is foreign policy?
A foreign policy refers to the set of strategies, principles, and actions that a country or other political entity adopts to govern its relationships and interactions with other countries, international organisations, and global issues.
A country’s foreign policy is typically formulated and implemented by its government, particularly the executive branch and diplomatic corps.
Effective foreign policy is seen as crucial for a country to effectively navigate the complex and interdependent international system.
The key aspects of a foreign policy typically include national interest, diplomacy, international cooperation, security and defence, and economic engagement.
The national interest or the primary goals, or priorities that a country seeks to achieve through its interactions with the international community, such as security, economic prosperity, and global influence will be the key focus while it will also cover the country’s foreign policy objectives and how it will manage relationships with other states.
While covering international cooperation or the extent to which a country engages with multilateral institutions, international agreements, and collaborative efforts to address global challenges, it may encompass the measures a country takes to protect its national security, including military capabilities, alliances, and responses to threats and conflicts.
The economic policies and initiatives a country uses to promote its economic interests globally, such as trade agreements, foreign investment, and economic sanctions will also be part of the policy in addition to the ideological and moral foundations that guide a country’s foreign policy, such as promoting democracy, human rights, or particular cultural/religious values.
Factors
Several key factors can influence and shape the foreign policy of a country.
A country’s geographic location, size, resources, and proximity to other nations can significantly impact its foreign policy priorities and strategic interests, While access to sea routes, borders with rival/friendly nations, and possession of natural resources are all geopolitical factors, which may affect priorities.
The prevailing political ideology, values, and national interests of a country’s leadership and population can drive its foreign policy agenda as ideological leanings towards capitalism, socialism, democracy, authoritarianism, etc, can orient a country’s external relations.
While securing economic opportunities, markets, and resources often becomes a key foreign policy objective, a country’s economic strength, trade dependencies, access to resources, and development needs heavily influence its foreign policy choices.
Domestic political compulsions, electoral cycles, and societal debates shape a country’s international engagement whereas the power dynamics, interests, and public sentiment within a country can constrain or empower its foreign policy decisions.
The size, capabilities, and strategic orientation of a country’s military establishment do play a critical role in crafting its foreign policy as maintaining national security, deterring threats, and projecting power globally are common foreign policy goals.
The structure of the global order, balance of power, and rulesbased international institutions impact every country’s foreign policy options and constraints as engagement with multilateral organisations, alliances, and treaty agreements becomes an important foreign policy tool.
The complex interplay of these factors means that a country’s foreign policy is rarely static, but rather constantly evolving to adapt to changing domestic and global circumstances.
Why change?
Compared to the pre-Cold War era, foreign policy changes by the nations have become frequent and unpredictable.
There are several key reasons why most aspects of a country’s foreign policy are variable and subject to frequent changes.
The international system is constantly in flux, with shifting geopolitical dynamics, emerging threats, technological disruptions, and other volatile factors as such countries need to constantly adapt their foreign policies to respond to these dynamic global developments.
New administrations often seek to differentiate themselves by revising or reversing the policies of their predecessors.
These changes in political leadership, ruling parties, and public opinion within a country can lead to significant shifts in foreign policy priorities and approaches. Ideal examples would be Maldives, Sri Lanka, and even in the case of Fiji.
A country’s core national interests and strategic objectives can evolve over time due to changing domestic and external circumstances.
Factors like economic needs, security threats, and global influence aspirations may require periodic recalibration of foreign policy.
Unexpected crises, conflicts, and emerging issues on the global stage often compel countries to swiftly adjust their foreign policies in response. With the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, many states have changed their foreign policies. Some have joined NATO while others have cut off diplomatic ties and imposed sanctions.
As countries engage with the international community, they gain new experiences, information, and lessons that can lead them to reevaluate and modify their foreign policies.
Policymakers may realise the limitations of previous approaches and opt for course corrections.
The emergence of new initiatives such as Belt & Road or BRICS can be attributed to this factor. Foreign policy is often the outcome of complex bargaining and negotiations between countries, where compromises and concessions are made.
The give-and-take nature of international diplomacy results in iterative changes to foreign policy positions.
In essence, the variability and changeability of foreign policy reflect the inherent dynamism and uncertainty of the global environment in which countries operate.
Flexibility and adaptability become crucial for policymakers to effectively advance a country’s interests on the world stage.
Global scene
There are many global examples of significant changes in foreign policy due to changes in government or other key factors.
The transition from the Obama administration to the Trump administration in 2017 led to a major shift in US foreign policy, moving away from President Barack Obama’s emphasis on multilateralism and climate change towards a more unilateralist, America-first approach under Trump.
The election of President Biden in 2020 has again shifted US foreign policy, with a return to traditional alliances, renewed focus on human rights, and re-engagement with international institutions like the WHO and the Paris Climate Change Agreement.
The rise of Vladimir Putin to power in Russia in the late 1990s transformed the country’s foreign policy from a more co-operative stance under Boris Yeltsin to a more assertive, nationalist and anti-Western orientation.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine marked a dramatic shift in its relations with the West.
Under the leadership of Xi Jinping since 2012, China has pursued a more globally ambitious foreign policy, expanding its economic and geopolitical influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road infrastructure programme.
This represents a shift from Deng Xiaoping’s “low profile” foreign policy approach towards a more proactive and at times confrontational stance on the global stage. The election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP government in 2014 led to a shift in India’s foreign policy, with a greater emphasis on nationalism, defence modernisation, and strategic partnerships with the US and other powers to counter China’s rise.
This marked a departure from the more non-aligned, cautious foreign policy of previous Indian governments.
The election of the reformist Hassan Rouhani as President in 2013 led to a thaw in Iran’s relations with the West, culminating in the 2015 nuclear deal.
However, the subsequent election of the more hardline Ebrahim Raisi in 2021 has signalled a potential shift back towards a more confrontational foreign policy approach. These examples illustrate how changes in political leadership, ideological orientation, and geopolitical circumstances can drive dramatic transformations in a country’s foreign policy over time.