A regulatory tsunami
A must read for the shipping community
THE book “IMO 2020: A Regulatory Tsunami,” by Dr Pablo Rodas-Martini will be launched in a few days.
Rodas-Martini is senior associate of SQ Consult, a Dutch company specialising in carbon markets and climate change.
He is the expert in charge of shipping emissions, shipping decarbonisation, and, in general, environmental issues for the maritime industry. Pablo has a Ph.D. and MSc from Queen Mary and Westfield College, University of London.
The book includes the following chapters: Chapter 1. A view to the past
Chapter 2. What is IMO 2020? Why was it approved?
Chapter 3. The top six certainties of IMO 2020 Chapter 4. Three mistakes in the making of IMO 2020
Chapter 5. How does IMO 2020 relate to shipping decarbonization?
Chapter 6. Is IMO 2020 helping LNG to become the fifth column?
Concluding remarks.
The following are six of the 15 reviews on the book by shipping experts:
“A timely, expertly written contribution on arguably shipping’s greatest change of the last 100 years.”
Sam Chambers, Splash
“Pablo Rodas-Martini has succeeded in turning what could easily have been a dry, technical book intended solely for maritime industry specialists into fascinating and important reading for the layperson and specialist alike. Highly recommended.”
Peter Stewart, Port and Terminal
“Pablo captures the eminent spirit of truth for the world’s greatest industry to step forward and do its part to mitigate carbon and other toxic substances produced while delivering goods and services to people in the furthest reaches of the globe.
Without shipping – there is no global trade, commerce or international resolve to improve the wherewithal of humanity overall.
I’m proud of the global shipping community and the member states of the UN’s International Maritime Organisation for stepping up and facilitating a responsible effort to initiate carbon neutral trade.
Thank you, Pablo for capturing the very relevant and substantive efforts through your wonderful book -‘IMO 2020 – A Regulatory Tsunami’.”
Captain Eric R. Dawicki, Northeast Maritime Institute, College of Maritime Science
“This book is a brilliant overview of IMO 2020 because it provides a clear analysis of the new regulations — why they have been introduced, the key challenges that come along with them and what the future may hold for the industry. In doing so, Pablo Rodas-Martini has positioned IMO 2020 as the next stage — or revolution — in the campaign to decarbonize the global economy, describing it as ‘a pencil drawing to a painting or a plaster cast to a sculpture on marble’.
This story includes the maritime industry’s previous major steps forward, including the substitution of coal for oil, the fuel now largely prohibited across the world’s oceans. As well as that, it is a fascinating foresight into how IMO 2020 will be enforced and the effects on wider industrial ecosystems.
IMO 2020 has been one of the most anticipated regulations this century and will have a broad range of implications across the industry, from ships to ports and the coastal cities.
It is for that very reason insights such as the one RodasMartini has offered are so critical. The driver behind all success is information and how best to use it.
If the maritime industry’s stakeholders know the how, when and why of IMO 2020, they will be prepared to prosper in the future.”
Maximilian Schwerdtfeger, Port Technology International
“Rodas-Martini’s central thesis is expertly developed and clearly identifies the monumental task facing the industry in achieving the objectives of IMO 2020.
In a rollercoaster world of climate change and increased public pressure, Rodas-Martini has provided clarity to an issue where many have failed to appreciate both it’s importance and the seismic shift required in order to achieve its intended outcome.
This work is vividly and insightfully told, and makes essential reading for those in the maritime industry.”
Graham Fisher, The Shipping Exchange
“Meeting sustainability goals in an interconnected, fast-changing world powered by digital transformation is linked to addressing the challenges ahead.
In an engaging, story-telling format, Pablo Rodas-Martini comprehensively provides the reader with historical context and background information that motivated the launch of the IMO 2020 regulation, its expected impact, and relevant concerns while showcasing its potential to act as a blueprint towards the decarbonisation of the maritime industry.”
Stellios Stratidakis, MarineTraffic
IMO 2020 has become nothing less than a tsunami.
The change is impacting not only the shipping industry but the entire maritime ecosystem and beyond: from refineries to marine manufacturers, shipyards, marine insurers, and shippers, to companies and households, which, in the end, will pay the additional costs incurred by shipping companies for either using the most expensive verylow sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) or other fuels such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), or installing exhaust gas cleaning systems, better known as scrubbers.
Since the regulation will cause the consumption of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) to plummet, the purchase of VLSFO to soar, and the use of LNG to increase gradually, some experts are comparing IMO 2020—linked to the upcoming decarbonisation of the shipping industry—with the shipping revolution that took place in the first part of the 20th century: the replacement of coal by oil for shipping transportation.
Since there are plenty of summaries and guidelines about IMO 2020, most of them enumerating the various topics, the author takes a different approach, a more historical one, to appreciate how the regulation evolved into the format that enters into force on January 1, 2020.
Since IMO 2020 is a jar filled with certainties and uncertainties, the author tries to foresee (not forecast) some major trends. The author presents top six certainties that he believes will start to take shape either right from January 1 or gradually during the weeks following.
According to the author, the IMO made three mistakes in the process of approving IMO 2020. Any human endeavor has risks, and IMO 2020 is no exception.
The heart of the matter is that the risks of IMO 2020 are too high. The IMO should have commissioned three additional studies on before reaching its decision.
These studies could have been done concurrently with the study about the availability of the compliant fuel, therefore not delaying the January 1, 2020 implementation date. If the IMO had commissioned those studies, the current risk could have been substantially reduced.
The author explains the three missing studies that the IMO did not request.
The author compares IMO 2020 to a 100-yard sprint while the decarbonisation of the shipping industry to a marathon.
For climate change, the costs will be several times higher, there will be not two, but many options to make a ship carbon neutral, and shipping companies will be put under tremendous pressure not only by the IMO but also by governments, investors, customers, and environmental groups.
The author answers to the following questions: What exactly does IMO 2020 mean for the decarbonisation effort?
Since the author considers that there already sufficient topics on the table to reach the ZeroEmission Vessel (ZEV) of the future (thirteen topics), he goes one by one through those CO2 issues to see if they have some relation with SOx.
The use of LNG has been stimulated by IMO 2020 because LNG is a compliant fuel virtually free of SOx. LNG also substantially reduces NOx and PM, and CO2 by a reasonable percentage.
LNG, therefore, has been heralded by its supporters as a fuel that kills several birds with one stone. Listening and reading the enthusiastic comments about LNG, one is tempted to forget that, in the end, LNG is still a fossil fuel and, as a fossil fuel, will never be carbon-neutral.
The short- and medium-term advantages of LNG, however, are undeniable, mainly when compared with HSFO, the dirtiest of all marine fuels.
The author welcomes the use of LNG as a transitional maritime fuel, but he is against its longterm use.