PANDEMIC LESSONS
What we shouldn’t do in the next one
PRIME Minister Voreqe Bainimarama, apparently invisible in Fiji, popped up on international screens this week. Speaking at a small island states meeting he reportedly “highlighted that everyone needs to be prepared for more infectious disease outbreaks in the future while managing the effects of climate change”.
The response was predictable. “Sir,” retorted youth activist Apenisa Vatuniveivuke in a tweet, “deal with this one first”.
And how is that all going? As of Thursday, we had 431 new cases, almost 4000 in total, and 24 dead. And the numbers are still rising.
The so-called “Indian variant” is now renamed “Delta”. It is maybe twice as infectious as the first form of the virus.
Outside Fiji, like a particularly nasty app, an upgrade is now available. Scientists have found a stronger strain of it — “Delta-plus”.
The Permanent Secretary for Health, Dr Fong, has now issued a stark warning – as our virus numbers increase, so, it follows, will coronavirus deaths.
If we accept that two per cent is the approximate number of people who die from this disease, let’s think about this.
Thursday’s new case number was 431. So, based on the maths, that means that in perhaps two weeks’ time, we would expect the Ministry of Health announce eight deaths – for that day alone.
And as far as I can tell, Fiji is doing nothing about it – or possibly making it worse.
One day, however, our pandemic experience will be at some sort of end. And then we will have to reflect on what as a country we did wrong. So here are five pandemic lessons that we may be forced to remember.
No ‘lockdown dodges’
Many people have been calling for a “lockdown”. Dr Fong is now frequently reported as saying that a lockdown “won’t work”.
But is that really what he ever said?
What is “the reality of the matter”?
At a press conference on 24 June, Dr Fong, like a good rhetorician, carefully defined what he meant by “lockdown”.
In Fiji, he said, “lockdown” meant a 24-hour curfew. And doing that for 28 days, he said, wouldn’t work.
Perhaps, it was my imagination, but he seemed to leave his podium somewhat more abruptly than usual that evening.
And I am wondering – just wondering of course – if Dr Fong was more annoyed than usual about what those other doctors – that is, the “spin doctors” who work for the politicians – wanted him to read out?
I don’t know when or why we decided that “in Fiji” a lockdown means a curfew.
Is there some official Government dictionary we don’t know about?
No one has ever called for a 28-day curfew. We (because they include me) want a lockdown the way it is understood in the rest of the world. You stay home and you leave only for food, medical help or (in some cases), exercise. People who need the support are supported.
Let’s not forget – this Government managed to dish out $14 million in “small enterprise grants” in just four weeks before the 2018 election. They can move the money when they want to.
So perhaps in the next pandemic, when we are again talking about people’s health, and their very lives, the Government play with words when it is asked a serious question. No “dial 161 for $50”.
It is difficult to comprehend the ineptness of a plan which says “phone or email or SMS the Government with your tax identification number and your date of birth and your voter ID number and your FNPF number and your home address and maybe you will get $50”.
Imagine, for just one minute, what’s happening at the other end of the line. We have to assume, since all this data is required, that there is a group of people, possibly wellmeaning civil servants, are feverishly checking details. Has this applicant gotten FNPF assistance before?
Does that person pay income tax? How come her voter ID number doesn’t match her date of birth?
If we are using public servants in this way, it comes at a cost. On the simplest calculation of the time it takes a reasonably well-paid junior public official to stumble around and do this work (including meal allowances), it is probably costing $25 to process one $50 claim.
So, while the Government looks studiously away from the charities and NGOs who are asking it to help, this is how it puts your taxes to work.
Or is the Government now drifting around so aimlessly that those officials had nothing better to do anyway?
We’ll actually communicate
Plenty has already been said about the Government’s abject failure to communicate with the country in the past three months. Well, here’s some more.
The Government has built up a miserable track record on its communications. It won’t produce an accountable minister to answer media questions. Its press briefings have failed to provide information on time, if at all.
So two weeks ago we got a re-set: New case numbers would be issued at 3pm, like clockwork, every day. We waited, breathless with anticipation, on day one of this new regime. The result? The number was about two hours late. Now, we don’t even bat an eyelid when the number fails to arrive until early evening.
Two nights ago we were promised a 7pm press conference where, we were told, Dr Fong would announce a new strategy in response to the ever-increasing coronavirus cases.
At 7pm (as usual), nothing happened. Like most of my fellow citizens with better things to do, I gave up. And as far as I know, when the press conference happened, no new measures were announced at all.
Advice to the Government: Every day, fewer people believe in your competence. But if you let the doctors turn up on time, at least we can all pretend.
We won’t challenge the virus to a fight
A dozen coronavirus cases in Sydney were enough to prompt a lockdown. The evidence was clear – the new Delta virus was so contagious that even masks and two-metre rules were not enough.
And meanwhile, what was Fiji doing?
The Commerce Ministry was deciding that, mid-pandemic, it was fine for people to have driving lessons.
On Thursday Commerce Minister Faiyaz Koya followed up by announcing a sort of retail free-for-all. Everyone would be allowed to open up provided they filled out some kind of electronic form (naturally, it’s the Fiji government, after all) and followed COVID-safe protocols (which are all fine in theory but not so well-observed in practice).
The Government, we are told, is adopting a “COVID mitigation” strategy.
Is this how it’s doing it?
Clearly, the Government retailers to open their stores, reemploy their workers and move some money around, even if it means the obvious – that this will also move the virus around.
As a friend said to me: “It’s like we’re challenging the virus to a fight”.
So let’s not do that again. Perhaps, next time we’ll have learned the first lesson and actually locked down.
We’ll promote vaccinations together
The vaccination numbers so far have been pretty good. But now it gets harder as we go for the tougher cases.
There are some determined anti-vaxxers out there. Some rely on some (very wacky) “science”. Some rely on (equally wacky) religion. Some just don’t trust the Government.
And once again, the Government’s hyper-political approach to everything is tying our hands.
It’s all very well to give the occasional speech saying “let’s all work together”. It’s something different to actually do it.
In the past few weeks, a government agency, backed by an international organisation, has asked a number of prominent people to record video messages urging people to get vaccinated. Those people include Opposition politicians and critics of the Government (no, I haven’t been asked!).
It would seem smart to show the country that everyone is on board. Show them that, despite their differences with the Government, all our political leaders and opinion leaders want vaccinations to happen.
But there’s no sign of that campaign being rolled out. Is sharing the media space with the enemy just too much for our political leaders to bear?
On this one, at least, there’s still time.
The future
Singapore – unsound on free speech, but often trailblasing on other things – is already thinking ahead and thinking aloud. It has announced its post-pandemic strategy.
It will get everyone vaccinated. Then the borders will be opened. The coronavirus is not expected to ever completely go away, but it will be treated like dengue and the flu – just manage as you go.
That is probably Fiji’s future – without Singapore’s superior health system and its ability to monitor the movement of tropical diseases and to treat people efficiently and quickly.
Singapore, with 5.6 million people, has recorded 36 coronavirus deaths. It is a certainty now that Fiji will record more than that.
But even for Singapore, that is in the future. That future seems a long way away for us.
And if other pandemics are to be part of our future, what lessons can we be sure we will take from this one?