If the EU wants to be a global power, it needs a new 'Big Bang' and a union of 36
Stefano Mallia
Twenty years after the European Union's 2004 "Big Bang" enlargement, we have seen it all: perceptions and re ections have been morphing from enthusiasm to fatigue, from hope to fear, from aspiration to disappointment.
With the wisdom of the past two decades and seven di erent waves of enlargement since the beginning of the European project, it would probably be appropriate to celebrate this "big bang" anniversary with facts and gures to dispel emotional debates ahead of the EU elections in June.
The three-year-long war in Ukraine has pushed the issue of enlargement to the forefront of the European geopolitical agenda.
The candidate status that was quickly conferred on Ukraine, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Georgia, and the accession negotiations that have nally been opened with North Macedonia and Albania are positive breakthroughs for a policy which has stalled for years, due to the proverbial "enlargement fatigue", to which Brexit has probably contributed.
It’s the economy, stupid
To make sure this new momentum stays the course in the long term, we should set straight the business case for enlargement.
Of course, democratisation and the rule of law are untouchable principles, as is the meritbased approach of the enlargement process, with no shortcuts. But, at the end of the day, people on both sides of the border must be reassured of the potential economic gains and prosperity for the next generation of Europeans.
At the moment, forecasts are scarce on what the economic impact of the next round of enlargement will be on the bloc. But if the past is any indication of the future, we can safely say that the business case is indisputable.
Trade between old and new member states grew almost threefold during the formal preaccession process from 1994 to 2004, and vefold among the new members themselves.
Trade between old and new member states grew almost threefold during the formal preaccession process from 1994 to 2004, and vefold among the new members themselves.
The EU-15 of the time grew on average by 4% annually from the