Can the US presidential election survive?
Comment la pandémie est-elle en train de transformer la campagne ?
Le coronavirus a bel et bien porté l'estocade à l'année 2020 dans son ensemble. Dans un contexte où chacun reste chez soi afin de limiter la contagion, aucun événement, quel que soit sa portée, n'est épargné. Au lendemain de son élection en 2016, le candidat républicain était déjà reparti en campagne. Malgré les nombreux scandales qui ont émaillé sa présidence, Donald Trump a survécu à son premier mandat, mais en sera-t-il de même pour l'élection générale ?
The coronavirus pandemic has taken a wrecking ball to the Olympics, Edinburgh Festival and UN’s Cop26 climate conference. In America, presidential primary elections have gone down like skittles, the Democratic national convention has been postponed and campaigns are frozen in time. All of which raises the question: can the 2020 general election itself survive?
2. The presidential vote is due to take place on 3 November. The date is set by federal law and Donald Trump has no power to delay it alone. That would require legislation enacted by Congress and signed by the president. Such an outcome still remains unthinkable to most. But many unthinkable events have unfolded in the last month. 1. to take, took, taken a wrecking ball to ruiner, avoir raison de (wrecking ball boule de démolition) / primary election élection primaire (élection de sélection au sein d'un parti) / to go, went, gone down like skittles s'effondrer comme un château de cartes (skittles quilles) / Democratic ici, démocrate / to postpone différer, reporter / frozen gelé, figé / to raise soulever, poser / general election élection présidentielle.
2. vote ici, scrutin / to be due to devoir (être prévu/ programmé) / to take, took, taken place avoir lieu / to set, set, set fixer / to delay différer, reporter / to require nécessiter / to enact promulguer / outcome issue / to unfold se dérouler. 3. “We’re in completely uncharted waters here and I don’t think anybody knows what’s going to happen,” said Monika McDermott, a political science professor at Fordham University in New York. “By November the picture might be completely unrecognisable. We don’t even know if the election is going to happen as scheduled. There’s talk out there about postponing it or changing it to a mail-in only election.”
THE FUTURE OF THE CAMPAIGN
4. The profound uncertainty has upended political campaigns like nothing else in living memory. On 3 March, former vice-president Joe Biden won 10 states on Super Tuesday, the biggest day in the primary calendar, and took firm control of the Democratic race. Trump, meanwhile, was holding regular campaign rallies in packed arenas. 3. uncharted waters terrain inconnu / picture ici, situation / scheduled programmé, prévu / talk discussion, rumeur / out there ici, parmi la population / mail-in only election vote exclusivement par correspondance.
4. to upend bouleverser / in living memory dont on se souvienne, de mémoire contemporaine / former ancien / Super Tuesday second mardi du mois de mars, date-clé des élections primaires aux É.-U. / race ici, course (à l'investiture démocrate) / meanwhile entre temps / to hold, held, held ici, organiser, participer à / regular ici, fréquent / rally rassemblement / packed bondé, comble / arena stade, enceinte. 5. Now, Biden finds himself holed up in his basement in Wilmington, Delaware, struggling to break into the national conversation through TV interviews and virtual campaign events. Trump has been denied the lifeblood of rallies but switched to his other favourite medium – television – with daily coronavirus taskforce briefings from the White House. Polls suggest he is benefiting moderately from a “rally around the flag effect”.
6. Media coverage that would normally be all about the race for the White House is dominated instead by an extraordinary public health and economic crisis. Trump and Biden continue to work on the assumption that, come 5. to hole up se terrer; ici, se confiner / basement sous-sol / to struggle peiner/avoir du mal à / to break, broke, broken into ici, percer (dans) / lifeblood âme, ici élément vital / to switch to passer à, se tourner vers / medium moyen de communication, média / taskforce groupe de travail (spécialement constitué pour un objectif donné) / briefing ici, point de presse / poll sondage / rally around the flag effect rassemblement autour de l'effet drapeau (élan de sympathie patriotique envers le président en place en temps de crise).
6. coverage couverture (médiatique) / extraordinary ici, sans précédent / assumption hypothèse, principe / to come, came, come ici, à l'arrivée du mois de, d'ici /
November, the worst of the pandemic will be over. The US held midterm elections in 1918 even in the grip of the Spanish flu that killed 675,000 people nationwide.
7. Fifteen states and one territory have postponed their primaries already this year, denying Biden the chance to knock out his rival, the Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, sooner rather than later. June will now be a bumper month, with nearly 700 delegates up for grabs in 10 states and the District of Columbia on 2 June alone – assuming the primaries can go ahead.The Democratic National Committee also announced it was delaying its presidential nominating convention in Milwaukee by a month until the week of 17 August.
8. But changing general election day would be much more difficult. Faced with the inconsistency
to be over être terminé / to hold, held, held organiser, avoir lieu / midterm elections élections de mi-mandat / in the grip of en proie à, en plein(e) / Spanish flu grippe espagnole / nationwide dans tout le pays. 7. to deny refuser (à) / to knock out éliminer / bumper ici, très chargé / nearly près de / up for grabs disponible, à saisir; ici, à convaincre / alone ici, rien que / assuming en admettant que, à condition que / to go, went, gone ahead se poursuivre. of states voting on different dates, Congress passed a law in 1845 that stipulated federal elections must be held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November (the day and time of year were chosen to suit farmers). Congress would have to pass a new law to postpone the 2020 election and even then would run into constitutional hurdles stating the new Congress must be sworn in on 3 January and the new president’s term must begin on 20 January.
NEW RULES?
9. If the election does go ahead as expected on 3 November, states that already allow early and absentee voting will be well placed. Washington state, for example, has carried out elections by mail for years and its primary last month went ahead as planned. But 17 states require some kind of excuse for requesting an absentee ballot.
8. inconsistency incohérence / to pass adopter, voter / to suit convenir, arranger / farmer agriculteur / to run, ran, run into se heurter à / hurdle obstacle / to state stipuler / to be sworn in être inauguré, investi de ses fonctions / term ici, mandat.
9. as expected comme prévu / early voting scrutin anticipé / absentee voting vote par correspondance / to carry out ici, organiser / to require exiger, nécessiter / to request demander / ballot vote, scrutin /
Many would need to change their rules at huge cost to run a mail-only election.
10. Robert P Jones, founder and chief executive of the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), said: “There is a patchwork of state constitutions. The west coast is ahead of the curve whereas other states might have to scramble. One challenge is the United States postal service is economically unstable, so vote by mail may not be as simple as it seems right now. We could end up with concerns about the legitimacy of the election. Last time it was only 10,000 votes in Michigan. It’s not hard to think we might have votes misdirected or ‘return to sender’.”
11. Party politics are already a factor. Democrats sought $2bn in funding for absentee and voteby-mail options in the recent coronavirus emergency relief bill but only got $400m. Trump admitted on Fox News: “The things they had in there were crazy. They had things – levels of voting that, if you ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”
huge colossal / to run, ran, run gérer, organiser.
10. chief executive directeur général / ahead of en avance sur / curve courbe / to scramble se précipiter, se hâter / challenge défi; ici, difficulté, obstacle / concern inquiétude, préoccupation / hard difficile / to misdirect mal orienter / sender expéditeur.
11. to seek, sought, sought chercher (à obtenir) / bn = billion milliard / funding financement / emergency relief secours d'urgence / bill projet de loi / to admit reconnaître, avouer / crazy dingue, insensé / to agree to accepter.
STOKING FEAR
12. At a White House coronavirus taskforce briefing he elaborated by claiming without evidence: “I think a lot of people cheat with mail-in voting. I think people should vote with ID – voter ID. I think voter ID is very important and the reason they don’t want voter ID is because they intend to cheat. “It shouldn’t be mail-in voting. It should be: you go to a booth and you proudly display yourself. You don’t send it in the mail where people pick up – all sorts of bad things can happen by the time they signed that, if they signed that by the time it gets in and is tabulated.”
13. Republicans have long stoked fears of fraud in mail-in voting. But according to the Washington Post, in Washington state’s last election, 4.4m ballots were cast but fewer than a hundred were flagged and none led to a criminal fraud investigation.
14. What remains unknown is whether the pandemic will help or hurt Trump at the ballot box. He declared a national emergency on 13 March but has been fiercely condemned for previously downplaying the virus, squandering crucial weeks and leaving the country unprepared. The president has “has blood on his hands”, argued the Boston Globe editorial board this week, while Biden’s supporters say the former vice-president would bring precisely the stable leadership the country needs.
12. to elaborate entrer dans les détails / to claim affirmer / evidence preuve(s) / to cheat tricher, frauder / to intend avoir l’intention / booth cabine; ici, isoloir / proudly fièrement; ici, ouvertement / to display oneself s'afficher, se montrer / to pick up prendre, ramasser, attraper / by the time avant que / to get, got, got in entrer; ici, être enregistré / to tabulate classifier; ici, comptabiliser.
13. long ici, depuis longtemps / to stoke alimenter (fig.) / according to d'après, selon / to cast, cast, cast a ballot déposer un bulletin de vote / to flag signaler / to lead, led, led conduire (à) / investigation enquête.
14. to hurt, hurt, hurt faire du tort, nuire à / ballot box urne; ici, élections / emergency (état d’) urgence / fiercely violemment, férocement / previously auparavant / to downplay minimiser (l'importance de) / to squander gaspiller, gâcher / to have blood on one's hands avoir du sang sur les mains / to argue affirmer / editorial board comité de rédaction / supporter sympathisant / leadership ici, autorité. 15. The PRRI says that, in less than three weeks, Trump has seen the highest increase in his favourability rating since the institute began tracking it in 2015. Jones explained: “We’re seeing a typical American reaction at times of national crisis, a ‘rally around the flag effect’. It happened with George W Bush after 9/11 and Barack Obama after the killing of Osama bin Laden. But on this one, we’re looking at something different, the very front edge of the US finally taking this seriously. 16. Robert Griffin, research director of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, agreed that the “rally around the flag effect” is benefiting the president but noted that, after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, it was not only Bush but also state governors who saw a rise in their approval ratings.
15. increase augmentation, hausse / favourability rating cote (de popularité) favorable / to track suivre (l’évolution de) / typical classique, caractéristique / to rally around se mobiliser autour de / 9/11 = attentats du 11 septembre 2001 / killing exécution / to look at étudier, analyser / very ici, tout / front ici, au plus haut / edge limite; ici, niveau.
16. to agree admettre, reconnaître / to note (faire) remarquer / rise augmentation, hausse / approval ratings cote de popularité /
“The effect is not necessarily related to performance or what the government is doing,” he said. “By historical standards, the effect for Trump is smaller than you’d expect and smaller than we’ve seen for other world leaders. His approval rating has not really changed that much and, for the 2020 election, it’s not moved the needle at all.”
What remains unknown is whether the pandemic will help or hurt Trump at the ballot box.
17. Trump’s central re-election argument was the economy, but the coronavirus outbreak has caused the quickest collapse the US job market has ever seen, throwing 10 million people out of work in just two weeks, and destroyed countless businesses. Griffin said: “Economic shocks in an election year are about as bad as it could get in terms of timing for a president seeking reelection. How are the American people going to interpret the action of this administration?”
to be related to être lié, associé à / standard ici, référence, point de comparaison / to expect (s’) attendre (à) / leader dirigeant / needle aiguille (to move the needle changer la donne) / at all du tout. 17. outbreak (début d') épidémie / collapse effondrement / job market marché de l'emploi / to throw, threw, thrown sb out of work licencier, mettre qqn à la porte / countless innombrable / business entreprise / shock ici, crise / as bad as it could get le pire scénario / timing choix du moment.