Germany's far-right AfD searching for new momentum ahead of election

The Alternative for Germany is the country's most successful far-right party since the war. But the latest state election results suggest its popularity may have hit a ceiling.

This should be a good time for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), if only because Germany has to choose an alternative: Chancellor Angela Merkel is no longer a candidate in September's federal election, leaving the country facing the kind of inevitable upheaval that an antimainstream party should be able to exploit.

Not only that, the built-in uncertainty of Germany's political future has been exacerbated in recent months by a series of legacy-scarring crises marking Merkel's final year in power

and eroded trust in the political establishment.

As political analyst and farright specialist Florian Hartleb puts it, the coronavirus pandemic has given the AfD opportunities. "Germany is in a big legitimacy crisis," Hartleb told DW. "There's a dramatic decline in support for the government

and especially Angela Merkel, because of the lack of vaccines and other issues. This is the perfect opportunity for the AfD, which is the party against the grand coalition."

Ronald Gläser, AfD spokesman for the state of Berlin, said the government's current struggles could create a new opportunity. "As the dissatisfaction with the coronavirus measures grows, we have the potential to make greater gains," he said. "A blind man with a stick could see that the government is making decisions that contradict any common sense."

But recent elections suggest the AfD has not made use of this potential. The party lost around a third of its share of the vote in the Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate elections in mid-March — ending up at below 10% in both states, down from 15% five years ago.

This weekend, the party will regroup in Dresden, one of its eastern German strongholds, to finalize its manifesto and come up with a strategy to revive its momentum in Germany's "super election year" that will culminate in the general election on Sep

tember 26.

AfD delegates will likely pin their hopes on the next state election in Saxony-Anhalt in early June, where the AfD took a quarter of the votes in 2016.

Managing expectations after early success

Gläser insisted the party is in a good position, despite the election setbacks. "Of course a few people are dissatisfied with the loss of votes, but honestly, it

Jörg Meuthen launched a surprise attack against his opponents during a party conference in November 2020

Thuringia's far right extremist leader Björn Höcke has many fans in the party