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Julian Nagelsmann to Bayern Munich: Is he worth a world record fee?
Marco Rose and Adi Hütter will be on the move for hefty sums this coming off-season in the Bundesliga, but Julian Nagelsmann's move looks set to raise the bar. Can Bayern justify a €30m fee? And what can they expect?
With Hansi Flick pulling the plug on his outrageously successful tenure, Bayern Munich have once more been perusing a rather thin market of suitable coaches.
The Bundesliga’s record champions have repeatedly insisted they prefer Germanspeaking coaches and also seem keen to steer clear of anyone capable of causing even the slightest bit of controversy. This has narrowed down the pool of candidates considerably and put the focus on RB Leipzig coach Julian Nagelsmann, who is reportedly on the verge of signing up. However, Bayern’s main title rivals this season have no reason to let him go easily, or cheaply. So why are Bayern convinced he's a coach worth the hassle? And what challenges will Nagelsmann face if he takes the job?
Bayern’s weak negotiating position
Nagelsmann’s contract with RB Leipzig runs unil 2023 and, in contrast to many Bundesliga bosses, he does not have a release clause. German media outlets agree a potential transfer fee
will likely be well over €15 million, with some suggesting a whopping €30m will be required to seal the deal.
Nagelsmann has reportedly asked to leave but previously stated "I’m not going to start a war with my employer." So, Leipzig are in a commanding position and have no reason to accept a knockdown fee. This could cause a major headache for the Bayern hierarchy, especially after the DFB (German football association) confirmed they would not pay a fee for their next coach, almost certain to be Flick.
Lack of alternatives
The most Bayern have ever forked out for a coach is the €2.2m they paid Eintracht Frankfurt to get Niko Kovac in 2019. It was his sacking after just over a year in charge which paved the way for Flick to take the reins in November 2019. When Bayern promoted him from an assistant coach position, the decision had plenty to do with convenience and perhaps less to do with an impressive track record or coaching ethos. With Nagelsmann newly-installed at Leipzig at the time of Kovac's departure, names like Arsene Wenger and Jupp Heynckes were being touted. Now, Bayern again find themselves with few suitable candidates to choose from.
In Marco Rose and Adi Hütter, two attack-minded options with Bundesliga pedigree have already sealed their moves for the coming season. In England, Thomas Tuchel’s start in charge at Chelsea has been promising, while Jürgen Klopp still looks likely to stay in Liverpool despite recent struggles. Ajax coach Erik ten Hag was linked with the Bayern job during the last vacancy and, in addition to speaking German, actually coached the club’s second team from 2013 to 2015. Despite seeming like the tailor-made option and recently making it clear that he aims to coach in the Bundesliga soon, Bayern’s bosses seemingly aren’t convinced.
A cautionary tale
The closest thing to a precedent for this situation can be found in Andre Villas-Boas, the current world record holder for biggest coaching transfer fee. Chelsea spent €15m to bring him from Porto in 2011. Aged 33 at the time, the same age as Nagelsmann is now, Villas-Boas lasted just 40 games until he was sacked, costing the club a grand total of over €55m in fees and wages. The Portuguese coach had struggled to impose himself and his ideas on a Chelsea squad full of experienced players, many of whom were his senior.
Nagelsmann could run into a similar problem at Bayern. His Hoffenheim and Leipzig sides were full of young, inexperienced players who were eager to improve and learn. In Jerome Boateng and Javi Martinez two of the old guard will be departing in the summer, but Manuel Neuer, Thomas Müller, and Robert Lewandowski remain and could present him with the type of resistance he has yet to face in his young managerial career. Nagelsmann has coached players who are older than him before, but none as established and authoritative as the aforementioned trio.
Track record
The highest accolade of Nagelsmann’s young coaching career is the Under-19s Bundesliga title. His biggest achievement? Take your pick between leading RB Leipzig to a Champions League semifinal or guiding his previous club Hoffenheim to their first ever Champions League qualification. While significant, such achievements pale in comparison to those of Müller, Neuer, and co. However, Nagelsmann has upped his game each time he has performed on a bigger stage and has so far been able to adapt and grow in new situations.
Tactical fit
Nagelsmann has favored playing three-at-the-back but has also shown himself to be tactically versatile. In fact, in his first season in charge at Leipzig, he largely stuck to the narrow 4-2-2-2 employed by his predecessors Ralf Rangnick and Ralph Hasenhüttl, only starting to tinker after the first half of the season had come to an end. This campaign, RB have mostly lined up in a 3-4-3, due in large part to it suiting the personnel he has available to him. Bayern do not have the type of attackminded wing-backs he’s currently coaching, with the exception of Alphonso Davies, so it looks more convenient to adapt to the 4-2-3-1 that Hansi Flick has favored. Something he has demonstrably been capable of before.
Squad balance
One area in which he is wellplaced to succeed where other Bayern coaches have failed is getting the best out of the club’s youth products. Louis van Gaal was the last man in charge to really help establish academy players as firm fixtures in the starting eleven, the likes of David Alaba, Thomas Müller, Toni Kroos and Holger Badstuber all getting big breaks under the Dutchman. Nagelsmann has never seen age as an issue, frequently fielding the league’s youngest starting elevens. This should see him get on better with sporting director Hasan Salihamidzic than Hansi Flick, who demanded more established signings.
At both Nagelsmann's previous employers, Hoffenheim and Leipzig, finished articles were rarely signed. Instead, Nagelsmann has had to make do with raw youngsters and often got the best out of them fairly quickly. With Jamal Musiala getting more first team football and Leipzig’s Dayot Upamecano about to move to Bayern in the summer, Nagelsmann could herald in a new era, building a squad out of a mixture of homegrown stars and young, talented signings.
Familiar formula
Bayern presumably hoped Flick would see them through to 2023, by which time Nagelsmann would have been out of contract, ready for a new challenge and perfectly primed to take over in Munich. At this point in his career, he may not be ideally placed to take the reins at Säbener Straße but he is unlikely to fall short of expectations, unless he faces a dressing room revolt. All signs point to Nagelsmann’s meteoric rise continuing. Any deal would also mean the Bundesliga will fall back on two favoured formulas: Bayern sign their competition’s best asset and RB Leipzig snap up the best that Red Bull Salzburg have to offer. In this case coach Jesse Marsch.