A bad omen for Turkey, Greece and democracy
The Turkish presidential election result was a blow to Turkey, to Greece, to the broader region and to democracy as a whole. While the rule in democracy is that we respect the will of the people, democracy's enduring weakness is that it contributes to its own undoing. So, despite the 21 years he's already spent in power, the impact of February's earthquakes, the corruption, the strong-arm tactics inside and outside Turkey's borders and the cynical exploitation of state institutions, half the country's voters chose Recep Tayyip Erdogan for president again. They are trusting the person who created the country's biggest problems to solve them. This is highlighted by his charismatic manner and the fact that many voters are simply not worried enough about the economic crisis and the way he undercut the institutions. Erdogan still manages to convey the fantasy of an omnipotent Turkey, while his rivals became trapped by their fantasy of reason prevailing.
The momentum from receiving 49.4% of the vote and the largest number of seats in parliament bode well for Erdogan in the runoff, which he is likely to win. One of the first consequences will be bigger rifts in a country that is already deeply divided. Erdogan has even stated that he kept notes during the pre-election campaign on everyone who got in his way. Another troubling omen is that nationalism (already a dominant trend on the political scene) was further bolstered, to the benefit of the parties expressing this trend in both coalitions.
This will spur Erdogan into even greater aggression towards his domestic and international rivals. This will not only silence dissent, it will also draw the Turkish people's attention away from the problems he is unable to solve. Aggression not only harms the citizens of Turkey and ties with Greece and other countries, it also prompts a similar response from the neighbors. Erdogan may not adopt the principles of the EU, as the opposition said it would in order to secure close cooperation. He may not bend to the will of the United States. He may stray even further from the tenets of the rule of law. Turkish citizens feeling his chokehold, young people looking for freedom and opportunities, will either have to reconcile themselves with his regime or emigrate. Fewer and fewer citizens and politicians will view peaceful coexistence with the neighbors in a positive light, as extreme policies gain traction.
These things will hurt Turkey's prospects and its relations with other countries, while stoking nationalism there and in Turkey. The blow to democracy will be that the people will see that elections which promise change through peaceful processes may legitimize and even strengthen an already authoritarian regime.
Turkish voters are trusting the person who created the country's biggest problems to solve them