2023 elections: Aims and expectations
Shortly before the polls open, it is worth taking an objective look at the facts, but also the aims and expectations of the three main protagonists, as well as the other parties.
Incumbent New Democracy is eyeing a comfortable win that will allow it to reach its goal of forming a single-party government in the second round. In this context, its leader, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has rejected the possibility of a partnership with PASOK, even if it could make up the numbers for a coalition.
And why should he not, when socialist leader Nikos Androulakis has made the estrangement easy by saying that he will not accept the head of the first party as prime minister?
The bar is being set at around 35%, which, in combination with the effective ouster of several far-right formations and steps to prevent a seventh party from entering Parliament, could allow a single-party government to be formed in the July runoff.
Alexis Tsipras is defying public opinion polls and estimates, hoping that his SYRIZA party could come first on Sunday.
In the unlikely scenario of a win, the aim would be to form a coalition with PASOK, though the numbers and Androulakis' stated refusal to work with Mitsotakis or Tsipras as prime minster stand in the way.
A more realistic goal would be a manageable defeat by 3% instead of the 6% projected by the polls – whose accuracy some dispute – which, along with getting over the 31.5% achieved in the July 2019 elections, would firmly establish SYRIZA as the main political force in the broader center-left.
Androulakis, meanwhile, has painted himself into a corner. He is leading a party rife with conflicting trends and faces an uphill battle, particularly under the circumstances.
Things are much different today than they were in 2015, when the centrist area was basically unrepresented, with a very conservative New Democracy under Antonis Samaras on the right and a radical SYRIZA preaching defiance against the memorandums and abolition of property taxes on the left.
Both Mitsotakis and Tsipras have edged their parties closer to the center, limiting PASOK's room for fresh growth.
And there is nothing to suggest that the two main parties will not continue limiting that space even further.
The other three parties trying to keep their place in Parliament are relying on disgruntled voters. Apart from the Greek Communist Party (KKE), which has seen a small boost in popularity, MeRA25 and Greek Solution are just above the 3% threshold needed to enter Parliament.
In the meantime, Zoe Konstantopoulou's Freedom Sailing party has been increasing its share in the past few weeks, edging past 2%.
The former parliament speaker is not limited to the left-wing vote, either, as her anti-systemic rhetoric, her staunch demand for WWII reparations from Germany, her opposition to the Prespes name deal and her overall patriotic rhetoric may also appeal to the far right.
Finally, another party, on the nationalist far right, Niki – Greek for Victory – is also appearing in the latest polls at above 2% and could prove a factor, if not in Sunday's elections, maybe in the second ones, which will take place on June 25 or July 2.
Both Mitsotakis and Tsipras have edged their parties closer to the center, limiting PASOK's room for fresh growth