Ankara sending out mixed signals

Athens closely monitoring exercise activities by Turkish forces in the East Mediterranean

Despite the ongoing informal moratorium, Ankara has been sending out ambiguous signals which Athens is closely monitoring and analyzing. In particular, the Turkish Armed Forces (TDF), especially the navy, have begun to undertake training exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean, which has drawn the attention of Athens. Although the activities are strictly limited to the area east of Rhodes and northwest of Cyprus, and thus solely in international waters, it is thought that the Turkish Navy has carried out a limited version of the Sea Wolf (Deniz Kurdu) military drill.

It should be noted that Ankara has not reserved any area in the Aegean Sea, effectively canceling Sea Wolf, which was scheduled to take place in two phases (June 1-4 and 6-12) and to be completed before the start of the official Aegean moratorium under the Papoulias-Yilmaz Memorandum on June 15.

However, considering the heightened presence of the Turkish fleet in the area from Antalya to the Gulf of Iskenderun, other naval exercises were conducted in the previous period.

It is also being examined whether the issuance of a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM No A3549/23), whereby Ankara announced the “reservation” of an exercise area within the

Athens FIR and more specifically in an area that coincides with international airspace, serves a purpose. The NOTAM (which Greece canceled with its own NOTAM) of course applies to a period that coincides with the Papoulias-Yilmaz memorandum. The specific area has repeatedly been declared reserved by Turkish authorities in the past and is one of the arguments used by the diplomacy of the neighboring country to challenge Greece's long-standing position on air traffic control and authority in the Aegean Sea. In this general context, in recent years Turkey has also declared, dubiously, some firing ranges in the

Aegean, within areas that coincide with international waters and international airspace.

In substance there is no question of air traffic responsibility, despite Ankara's efforts to challenge even in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) the fact that the Aegean is controlled by the Greek authorities. In any case, it is estimated that the issuance of the NOTAM is a simple reminder by the Turks of Ankara's claims in this regard.

Whether the exercises with real ammunition that have been announced through the NOTAM will take place will be seen next Tuesday, when the NOTAM comes into force.