The Serbian pendulum and the roles of Vucic
Aleksandar Vucic is an unpredictable leader in a region crucial for Balkan peace and stability. Striving to maintain a balanced stance between the West and Russia, he has for years benefited from European and American investments, alongside diplomatic support from Russia (particularly concerning Kosovo) and energy assistance. He likes to brag about these achievements, and with good reason.
Both Russia and the West tread cautiously, avoiding actions that might drive Serbia into the arms of their rivals. Serbia's pivotal role in maintaining the equilibrium of the Balkan peninsula is a reality that Vucic has adeptly leveraged.
However, the conflict in Ukraine and fears of its spillover have placed immense pressure on Vucic. The United States, for geostrategic motives, is advocating for international recognition of Kosovo. Should this occur, Serbia would face de jure separation, losing its historical heartland.
Recent developments, including the proposal for Kosovo to join the Council of Europe by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) committee (based on a report by New Democracy MP Dora Bakoyannis) and the forthcoming adoption by the UN General Assembly of a resolution on the 1995 Srebrenica massacre slated for April 27, have deeply unsettled Serbia's leadership.
Vucic (echoing Vladimir Putin's sentiments regarding Russia) has warned of “existential threats” to Serbia. Many Serbian analysts view recent developments as typical tactics employed for domestic consumption.
In the event of Kosovo's final secession, Belgrade appears prepared to respond by potentially activating a scenario involving the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the tacit or overt consent of Russia, culminating in the establishment of a New Yugoslavia, as outlined in a report by the Italian Europa Today.
The scenario gained momentum following a recent post on X by the pro-Russian Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who declared his intention
In the event of Kosovo's final secession, Belgrade appears prepared to respond by potentially activating a scenario involving the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina
to pursue full independence for the Serb-controlled regions of Bosnia: “Farewell, Bosnia. Prepare for the exit of Republika Srpska,” he said. He also specified a date, stating that during the Great Easter Assembly of Serbia and Republika Srpska on May 5 and 6, “we will prepare a large number of important and useful decisions for our people.”
Are we likely to see developments that could potentially endanger peace in the region? Following the recent decision by the council of EU leaders to grant Bosnia EU candidate status, this column raised the question of whether Europeans had acted too hastily given the country's precarious state. Perhaps the answer lies in the earlier points discussed in this article.