Kathimerini English

The Serbian pendulum and the roles of Vucic

- BY STAVROS TZIMAS

Aleksandar Vucic is an unpredicta­ble leader in a region crucial for Balkan peace and stability. Striving to maintain a balanced stance between the West and Russia, he has for years benefited from European and American investment­s, alongside diplomatic support from Russia (particular­ly concerning Kosovo) and energy assistance. He likes to brag about these achievemen­ts, and with good reason.

Both Russia and the West tread cautiously, avoiding actions that might drive Serbia into the arms of their rivals. Serbia's pivotal role in maintainin­g the equilibriu­m of the Balkan peninsula is a reality that Vucic has adeptly leveraged.

However, the conflict in Ukraine and fears of its spillover have placed immense pressure on Vucic. The United States, for geostrateg­ic motives, is advocating for internatio­nal recognitio­n of Kosovo. Should this occur, Serbia would face de jure separation, losing its historical heartland.

Recent developmen­ts, including the proposal for Kosovo to join the Council of Europe by the Parliament­ary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) committee (based on a report by New Democracy MP Dora Bakoyannis) and the forthcomin­g adoption by the UN General Assembly of a resolution on the 1995 Srebrenica massacre slated for April 27, have deeply unsettled Serbia's leadership.

Vucic (echoing Vladimir Putin's sentiments regarding Russia) has warned of “existentia­l threats” to Serbia. Many Serbian analysts view recent developmen­ts as typical tactics employed for domestic consumptio­n.

In the event of Kosovo's final secession, Belgrade appears prepared to respond by potentiall­y activating a scenario involving the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovin­a, with the tacit or overt consent of Russia, culminatin­g in the establishm­ent of a New Yugoslavia, as outlined in a report by the Italian Europa Today.

The scenario gained momentum following a recent post on X by the pro-Russian Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who declared his intention

In the event of Kosovo's final secession, Belgrade appears prepared to respond by potentiall­y activating a scenario involving the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovin­a

to pursue full independen­ce for the Serb-controlled regions of Bosnia: “Farewell, Bosnia. Prepare for the exit of Republika Srpska,” he said. He also specified a date, stating that during the Great Easter Assembly of Serbia and Republika Srpska on May 5 and 6, “we will prepare a large number of important and useful decisions for our people.”

Are we likely to see developmen­ts that could potentiall­y endanger peace in the region? Following the recent decision by the council of EU leaders to grant Bosnia EU candidate status, this column raised the question of whether Europeans had acted too hastily given the country's precarious state. Perhaps the answer lies in the earlier points discussed in this article.

 ?? ?? Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks during a public address in Belgrade, Serbia, on February 2, 2024.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic speaks during a public address in Belgrade, Serbia, on February 2, 2024.

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