Who can solve the North Korean crisis?
The scandal-driven dismissal of South Korean president Park Geun-hye could not have come at a worse time. Not only has the Democratic Republic of North Korea (DPRK) recently flaunted its long range missiles, but its assassination of the supreme leader’s exiled half-brother – which South Korea correctly described as an act of terrorism – shows that Kim Jong-un is in no mood for diplomatic compromises. Before he was attacked in Kuala Lumpur International Airport by DPRK agents who used VX-nerve gas to fatally poison him, Kim Jong-nam lived under Chinese protection in Beijing and Macau for more than a decade. His murder places considerable strain on China’s already troublesome relationship with Pyongyang.
In classic authoritarian style, Kim’s regime tends to fasten on any hint of confrontation or subversion with paranoid fascination. Four years ago, Jang Song-taek the president’s uncle, and the only plausible threat to his rule, was dramatically purged. Unlike other members of the ruling family, Jang had travelled outside of the DPRK and had been well received in South Korea. He was also helping to promote economic reforms that China supported. Fearful of being undermined, Kim moved against Jang in late 2013. During a televised meeting of the politburo there was a scene eerily reminiscent of Stalin’s trials or Saddam Hussein’s chilling purge of the Iraqi Ba’ath party. Jang was sacked from his posts and then dragged out of his chair to answer for his crimes. The Korea Central News Agency said he had been plotting to “overthrow the state by all sorts of intrigues and despicable methods with a wild ambition to grab the supreme power.” The evidence against him included “half-heartedly clapping” when President Kim received a military promotion. The statement called Jang “despicable human scum ... worse than a dog.”
It is too early to say what the immediate consequences of Park Geun-Hye’s removal from office will be, but the Damocles sword that awaits her successor is clear enough. Following the launch of North Korea’s four ballistic missiles, the US army has started to deploy an advanced anti-missile system in South Korea. Washington has also repeatedly called on China to defuse the rising tensions in the region. But Beijing’s’ influence over Pyongyang is at an historic low. Kim Jong-il