Reality check

There can now be no question that a gale force wind of expectation is sweeping all corners of Guyana arising out of the prospects deriving from our new-found oil and gas expectations, and what is now the imminent arrival of ‘first oil,’ in a matter of days, assuming that the pronouncement of the adjusted timeline announced some weeks ago holds good.

The air of excitement has drifted far beyond our own geographic space, across the Caribbean and into the international community and even before the ‘first oil’ arrives like some elaborately attired celebrity, the global oil media are already predicting that crude from Guyana is likely to be impacting on the behaviour of oil prices in the virtually immediate future. In other words, global assessments of the international oil & gas industry are beginning to factor in Guyana as a ‘hot number’ even before a drop of crude materialises. Close as we are to the scene of this historic development and preoccupied as we are with the anticipated material manifestations of our new-found ‘riches,’ there is a sense that, as a nation, we are far from understanding the bigger picture here.

There is of course no shame in that. The global oil industry is mind-boggling in its complexity and Guyana is a poor, underdeveloped country, which had not been undergoing any kind of prior preparation, at least not at the level of the wider population, including, of course, the media, for its own oil ‘moment’ in May 2015 when ExxonMobil made its earth-shattering disclosure.

Since then, nothing, not even the political drama that attended the events surrounding the no-confidence motion, has come even close to threatening the resulting sense of national fascination; never mind the fact that there have appeared a few sobering warnings about the need for us to keep both feet on the ground.

All of that being said and even taking account of what, across the board, is our still limited understanding of the dynamics of the oil & gas industry, an article by Professor Anthony Bryan in last Tuesday’s Jamaica Observer, which every literate Guyanese should read, provides a perspective on the circumstances in which we find ourselves that we cannot afford to ignore. Whether it is perceived as sobering, providing a needed dose of realism or simply as a blunt assessment of the potentially choppy waters that lie ahead, it is definitely well worth the attention not just of government but of the populace as a whole, coming as it does from a source that appears to have an expert grasp of the vicissitudes of the global oil industry. Its allusion to the ‘tectonic’ nature of the ‘statistical projections’ insofar as the heights to which oil can take the Guyana economy is concerned, is not just giddying, but also deliberately balanced against a stern warning that other circumstances, not least the vigorous environmental pushback against the relentless harvesting of fossil fuels must be factored into the longer term equation.

But that is only a small part of the “reality check” provided by the article’s author. Its warning about the inevitability of a “steep learning curve” covers everything ranging from the necessity for us to put in place the requisite legislation and institutional mechanisms to the substantive political and governance environment that will be critical to steering the sector on a materially rewarding course whilst protecting the resources that it yields from falling victim to waste and plunder, a likelihood which it would be foolhardy to rule out.

Interestingly, the article notes that the burden of those responsibilities need to be balanced against the reality that the prevailing vigorous oil & gas hype that continues to grow in its intensity has spawned an environment in which “a national sense of euphoria is high and caution may be in short supply.” That too, has to be managed.

What, of course, is also in short supply in Guyana at this time, is a convivial political environment, that is to say one in which the competing political forces have at least been able to arrive at some sort of common insofar as a mutually agreed strategy for the decision-making and management of the emerging oil & gas sector is concerned; so that there now exists a considerable climate of opinion that both the opportunities and the responsibilities associated with our oil & gas industry are likely to be the focal point of the manifesto commitments of the front runners in the upcoming March 2 general elections.

The essence, manifestly, of the Jamaica Observer column, reposes in the riveting nature of its reality check. Arguably, it comes at the right time too, when, at least amongst the populace as a whole, there exists little against which to balance what so often seems to be the frighteningly giddy heights to which our expectations have reached. The inevitable ‘feel good’ sensation that derives, understandably, from generations of poverty and unfulfilled hope and expectation must not now allow us to push all of the other cautions and practical realities spelt out in the Jamaica Observer article to the back of our minds. Our oil ‘wealth’ has, in essence, placed us on the cusp of what, arguably, is the most challenging test in the nation’s history and that is the most that can honestly be said at this juncture. The editorial is, if nothing else, a caution about the danger of us getting ahead of ourselves.