Contextual analysis is of great importance, Mr King ignored this
My attention was drawn to an article published in the Jamaica Observer on March 17th, 2023, citing regional economist, Damien King, who argued that “Guyana could fall victim to the so-called ‘resource curse’ as it moves deeper in developing its oil and gas finds because it lacks strong institutions to prevent corrupt i o n (https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/business/mark-my-words-2/). The economist made outlandish and callous remarks wherein he argued that “Guyana is going to go nowhere”, political parties will soon start to squabble over the spoils to the detriment of the country and that unless there are strong institutions―corruption and violence will ensue etc.
There are two fundamental issues I have with the economist’s contentions. First, his assertion that “it is worth killing people for power”, is indeed a reality that occurred with other countries where oil is concerned. Guyana’s political economy is still fragile wherein, even without oil, the country endured a long history of political crimes. Notwithstanding the aforementioned, today, Guyana is in a much better position compared to three decades ago and in a different era wherein the politics of the past would be difficult to repeat. Of recent, for example, there were failed attempts by the political opposition to repeat past political crimes. This is another example that the politics of the past would be difficult to engineer in an economically stable Guyana.
The second issue I have is the tendency to be overly academic and theoretical, referencing case studies of other countries and packaging the narrative as lessons― thus, effectively ignoring appropriate context and/or lacking a proper contextual analysis. While this may be partially acceptable in academia, the political and economic realities of countries are often times vastly different, and therefore, appropriate contextual analysis is of great importance. This critical element is lacking in the economist’s analysis on the Guyana situation. The economist contends that Guyana has weaker institutions compared to Jamaica―yet, Jamaica scored 3 points higher than Guyana in the 2022 corruption perception index (CPI).
Moreover, it is a pathetic and unsubstantiated argument coming from a political economist that weak institutions necessitate corruption, and ultimately, and is the only variable or primary cause for the resource curse syndrome outcome. The perception of corruption and its reality are different issues altogether―and it is also true that there is no country in the world that is free of corruption. Even in countries with the strongest institutions, corruption prevails, and there are countries that did not fall victim to the ‘resource curse’. Additionally, he based his arguments and conclusions on case studies of other countries that suffered the consequences he is predicting that Guyana will be a victim of―but ignores completely, the contexts altogether of the countries cited, such as, Venezuela and Nigeria. Avoiding the dreaded resource curse has less to do with the perception of corruption and more to do with prudent economic management of the resources in a manner that effectively and efficiently elevates the level of prosperity for a people.
It is worth noting that despite these challenges, the government at the time which is none other than the current government―managed to successfully lift Guyana out of a state of bankruptcy to economic stability in just over two decades. This is indicative of the resilience of the people. The incumbent government has demonstrated, drawing from its successful track record of good economic management, that it is pursuing the right economic policies and undertaking much-needed investment in the economy―specifically in addressing the country’s infrastructure deficit, human resources constraints, education and health care, energy and food security at the regional level, and ICT just to name a few, that will enable the economic transformation to take place from a primary producing economy to a tertiary producing economy.
Finally, I end by inviting Damien King, to study the Guyanese economic context, conduct his own public policy analysis; examine the national budgets of 2020 through 2023, for example, and analyze the economic outcome of these policies and allocation of financial resources in the economy―to aid him in deriving a more informed conclusion.