Backpedalling will not facilitate rebuilding of American greatness

From his reportedly self-written inauguration speech to the goodbye-everything-of-the-past policy statements, Donald Trump, now the 45th President of the United States, has shown his administration will be going off the beaten track. We have just witnessed the beginning of it: Aspiring to unite a politically divided nation with an essentially divisive rallying call — an inaugural speech that was anti-tradition, anti-establishment, anti-globalization, antifree-trade and virtually anti-everything pre-Trump.

While it is purely the US’ business whether and to what extent his home audience will rally under his banner, its new president’s “America First” signboard is something for the rest of the world to worry about, China included.

Not because of what it literally says, because as Trump has insisted, every nation is entitled to prioritize its own interests.

But rather because it carries forward the signature Trumpian antagonism to globalization, and the corresponding beliefs that have shaped the way countries interact, and have become interdependent and co-exist economically. It is its Americentrism that matters. If the speech was a declaration of war, as some have suggested, that war is not just against the establishment in Washington, but, more importantly, against globalization, against free trade.

In Trump’s narrative, free trade has “enriched” other countries, but “depleted” the US’ wealth, strength and confidence, and become a process of ravages by other countries, which are making American products, stealing American companies, and destroying American jobs.

The only way out, then, the only way to “Make America Great Again”, is to go protectionist.

“Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength,” he announced. And his prescription is simple indeed: “Buy American and Hire American”.

It remains to be seen whether this will make America strong, wealthy, proud and safe again. But the protectionist orientation will certainly usher in a period of global tumult as it translates from pre-presidential bluff into presidential actions.

Painting a dark picture of present-day America, where the economy withers and people suffer, and blaming it on “failed trade deals”, the Trump White House has decided to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, renegotiate the North Atlantic Free Trade Area and vowed to rework the rest in the US’ favor.

Besides the promise of “a tough stance” in negotiations for “fair” deals, the new administration threatens to “crack down” on violators, as if all the deals and agreements had been unfairly imposed on previous US administrations.

Globalization as it is has downsides, and needs to be fairer, more inclusive, and broadly benefiting. But backpedalling will hardly facilitate Trump’s vision of rebuilding American greatness.

Despite the global concern about the uncertainty surrounding the new administration’s actions, at least one thing appears certain: Protectionism will pit the US increasingly against the rest of the world, starting with trade: Particularly when Trump’s obsession with “fairness” is in reality nothing but Americentric.

As the world’s No. 1 foreign trader, China will find itself a foremost victim as the world’s largest economy and consumer market slams its doors shut on free trade. While fears of a China-US “trade war” still remain just fears, the economic interdependence, deep, broad and solid as it is believed to be, will not suffice to prevent a new round of mutually-weakening wrangling in trade, and beyond.

Given Trump’s previous indications of his readiness to resort to political levers, as wild and provocative as the Taiwan card, to gain trade concessions from Beijing, things may get messier than anticipated.

As an emerging champion of globalization and free trade, Beijing, along with the US’ old and new allies and partners, needs to find a way to demonstrate to the nascent administration in Washington the prospects for an updated, more desirable version of globalization, and the benefits to be gained from it.

The White House made no secret of its pride in the new US leader’s “decades of deal-making experience” as justification for confidence that he can fulfill his mission to “Make America Great Again”.

And as a shrewd, successful businessman, Trump is probably aware as anyone of what the cost would be should the world’s two largest economies start to brawl, and he will no doubt prefer to be in his natural element at the negotiating table.

Only Taiwan will not be accepted as a bargaining chip. Overtures for forging mutually-beneficial trade ties should precede confrontational actions.