Forecast for GDP: 6.6% rise for 2017

China’s GDP growth is expected to reach 6.6 percent this year, dipping 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, and it will stay within a stable and reasonable growth range, according to a forecast released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Friday in Beijing.

GDP growth hit 6.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017, and it is forecast to hit 6.7 percent, 6.6 percent and 6.5 percent in the following three quarters, respectively, the report said, based on China’s quarterly macroeconomics model.

“The forecast trend is in line with the realities of the supply side and demand side of the economy,” said Li Yang, director of the economics department at the academy.

This year will be a key time to further advance supply-side structural reform and the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, according to the report. The stability of economic operations in China has been consolidated, with the combined growth of both the traditional and new economies, it said.

The report also predicted that this year, total fixed asset investment will reach 65.8 trillion yuan ($9.54 trillion), with a nominal growth of 8 percent and an actual growth of 7.4 percent over last year. The growth rate fell slightly compared with last year, but the decline narrowed.

Fixed asset investments in manufacturing are expected to grow at 3.5 percent, infrastructure at 16.5 percent and real estate at 5.2 percent this year. This signals that infrastructure investment will still be one of the main driving forces of economic growth.

The report suggested that China should reduce the tax burden on a more broadbased level.

“Currently, the Chinese economy still faces the pressure of structural slowdown,” Li said, as it undergoes big changes.

As a result, implementing a “more active fiscal policy” is important, he said, such as increasing the deficit moderately, reducing corporate tax burdens and pushing forward the reform of personal income taxes.

The Chinese economy still faces the pressure of structural slowdown.” Li Yang, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ economics department