New FTA welcome provided it’s not harmful

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) came into being on Dec 30 as a new free trade accord among Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, New Zealand, Singapore and Vietnam. The newly signed trade deal is essentially a successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, which US President Donald Trump withdrew from within days of assuming office in January 2017.

Despite the multilateral trade and economic mechanisms facing increasing challenges, the CPTPP demonstrates the consensus reached by the 11 member countries of the erstwhile TPP — except the United States — during the APEC meeting at Danang, Vietnam, in November 2017 has been put into practice. Which means the Asia-Pacific region could soon have three multilateral trade and economic mechanisms — the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference, the CPTPP and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which is likely to come into force this year.

The CPTPP has adopted the outcomes of the TPP’s negotiations, and its 11 members hope to continue sharing the trade benefits brought about by the multilateral framework. As of November 2018, the legislatures of Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, New Zealand and Vietnam had ratified the pact, which means the seven signatories could soon enjoy a 90 percent reduction in tariffs.

Japan has played the leading role in the formation of the CPTPP, from the beginning of the negotiations to working out the framework and the signing of the agreement. After the US pulled out of the TPP, Japan has shown its eagerness and capability to play a leading role in AsiaPacific cooperation.

Japan helped establish the CPTPP basically for three reasons. First, because multilateral mechanisms conform to Japan’s national interests, which it more clearly realized after the US pulled out of the TPP and started putting increasing pressure on Japan in bilateral trade negotiations. That also made Tokyo realize that promoting the CPTPP and upholding multilateralism was the best way it could safeguard its interests.

Second, to fill the power vacuum left by the US’ withdrawal from the TPP and further spread its influence in the region and beyond, as Japan wants to become the rule-maker in Asia-Pacific cooperation mechanisms.

Third, to prevent China from becoming the dominant player in the region while improving bilateral ties with China, as Tokyo is worried that Beijing may leave it far behind in regional cooperation.

It is likely that the developing countries in the CPTPP will see continuous growth followed by their economic transformation. For instance, the Vietnamese parliament ratified the CPTPP about two months ago, as it expects the trade partnership to create more opportunities for the country and help it further integrate with the global value chain, as well as promote free trade partnerships with other countries, such as Canada, Mexico and Peru. The deal could also prompt the Vietnamese government to accelerate administrative reform, which it believes can help make economic growth sustainable.

Overall, the CPTPP has inherited the high standards of free trade from the TPP. And many observers believe that despite the removal of 22 provisions previously considered priorities by the US from the significantly revised agreement, Japan and other US allies would still have a bigger say in negotiations.

China is not a CPTPP member, but it has an open mind about participating in the mechanism as an advocator of multilateral and regional cooperation.

China has said that as long as the agreement is consistent with the World Trade Organization’s principles of openness, inclusiveness and transparency, and aimed at promoting economic globalization and regional economic integration, it holds a positive attitude toward it.

China may even join the partnership based on the premise that it does no harm to its national interests, because it will never compromise its core interests to merely join a free trade agreement.