Brexit hangs in balance in vote on May leadership

The government of British Prime Minister Theresa May faced a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons on Wednesday evening as the latest chapter of the Brexit saga is played out. The vote was scheduled after press time in China.

On Tuesday, May suffered the heaviest defeat by any prime minister in nearly a century as her proposals for Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, scheduled to happen at the end of March, were rejected by 432 votes to 202, with nearly 120 members of her own Conservative Party voting against her.

As a result, Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, announced he was calling for a motion of no confidence, which was to be the subject of the vote.

Still, many observers expected May to survive that vote. Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, whose support the government relies on, indicated it would back her, and Conservative MPs were expected to stay loyal.

May told MPs that if she made it through the vote, she would return to the Commons next week with an alternative proposal for Brexit. Observers have said that given the short time left, it is hard to see what new measures she would be able to offer.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that China hoped the Brexit process would advance in a “stable and orderly” fashion, which serves the best interests of all parties.

She also said China’s policy on developing China-UK and ChinaEU relations in parallel would remain unchanged.

Professor Alex de Ruyter, director of the Centre for Brexit Studies at Birmingham City University, said Tuesday’s result had raised the stakes on all sides.

“I think the odds of a no-deal Brexit have risen,” he said. “It’s not the most likely outcome, but due to political inertia, it’s more likely than before.” He said even if May survived the vote, there would be “nothing” she could do “in a matter of days” that would be substantively different.

“The EU has made it clear they’re not going to reopen negotiation on the withdrawal text and in terms of parliamentary arithmetic, there’s no majority for no deal, but there’s no majority for any other permutation, either.

“I think Parliament will enact an amendment in some form over the next few days to try and require the government to seek an extension to Article 50 in order to have another referendum.”

If the government were to request and be granted an extension of the Article 50 withdrawal process, de Ruyter said it would come with strings attached.

“What has been emanating from the EU is that any extension would only be for a few months and (only) in the case of something significant like another referendum taking place. The message would be — put your house in order, then put up or shut up.”

Thomas Cole of the People’s Vote campaign, which supports a new referendum, welcomed the news.

“When we launched, no one gave us a chance, and nine months later we’re in a very good position — polls show the majority of the population want another vote and also want to stay in the EU,” he said.

“Tuesday’s defeat showed that across the political spectrum, there’s no appetite for this deal. Its scale shows that no minor tweaks are likely to get it through Parliament, so I think the chance of a second vote has definitely increased.”

But public and parliamentary feeling and sentiment are not the same thing, observers say, so gaining the support of MPs is key to any chance of success.

“We’re seeing more MPs on both sides coming out for a people’s vote. We have a lot of work to do but we’ll make the case that all the alternatives will in no way lead to any kind of satisfactory outcome, and the best scenario is the one we have already, in the EU,” Cole said.

“The vote of no confidence makes no difference, as whoever is in government, May or Corbyn, will try to prove the promises of the Leave campaign in 2016 stack up, which they don’t. All Brexit outcomes are inferior to the relationship we already have with the EU.”

As for those who say the people have already had their vote, Cole said it is only fair that they are allowed to vote again.

“We accept that the 2016 result happened. We’re not asking for a rerun, but when facts change, people are allowed to change their view,” he said.

“The Brexit that was promised isn’t going to happen and the UK has put itself in a position of weakness. The people started this process, so it should be the people who end it.”