Are foldable smartphones really the next big thing?
ON SUNDAY, China’s tech giant Huawei officially unveiled Huawei Mate X, its first foldable smartphone. That came just five days after Galaxy Fold, the first foldable smartphone of Samsung. But foldables might not be the future of smartphones, two experts tell China Daily’s Zhang Zhouxiang:
Yuan Xuanhua, an industrial designer with 20 years’ experience in smartphone engineering: Some media outlets have described foldable smartphones with so many sweet words as if they were a technological breakthrough. Unfortunately, they are not. The technology of foldable displays was invented 20 years ago in a quite easy way — by replacing the glass that supports the display with foldable organic materials. Such displays not only fold, they also curve.
Concerning the foldable screens of Huawei and Samsung, they have better displays with higher density rate and clearer, more stable display performance, but in essence they are still using the same technology. Therefore, the foldable smartphones are a consumption-led innovation rather than a technology-driven breakthrough.
When touch screens for smartphones were invented, they did not become popular until certain apps that suited them, such as began to be introduced. Now foldable smartphones face a similar problem. Only when apps that suit the foldable smartphones are developed will the phones be truly accepted by the market.
Wu Shuyuan, an analyst at Sigmaintell, a company specializing in display analysis: Both Huawei and Samsung have invested huge resources in their foldable smartphones, because it is a way for both companies to show they are still innovating, and foldable displays need special materials that are quite scarce in the market, so neither of the two companies could afford to wait.
Although the Samsung Fold and Huawei Mate X differ greatly in terms of design, and each has its advantages and disadvantages, the two share one thing in common, namely a high price — Both are rather expensive. The Samsung Fold is priced at $1,980 while the Huawei Mate X is priced at 2,299 euros ($2,606). The high price will quite seriously limit the market for the two products as it makes them luxury buys.
According to our analysis and market forecasts, in 2019, the number of foldable smartphones and tablets sold globally might reach 900,000, which might double in 2020. As a comparison, people globally bought 1.4 billion smartphones in 2018. So unless the price of foldable phones falls sharply, the market will be limited for the foreseeable future.