SPOTLIGHT FOCUSES ON ROAD TO FUTURE
Socioeconomic goals, development pattern on agenda at key political event
Global attention turns to Beijing on Thursday as the two sessions, China’s biggest annual political event, get underway.
Eyes will be focused on how the world’s second-largest economy will make further efforts to realize its socioeconomic goals and build a new development paradigm of “dual circulation” amid a complex internal and external environment.
Observers said the meetings will also indicate the direction of China’s post-pandemic foreign policy, particularly how it will handle relations with the United States.
The two sessions are the meetings of the National People’s Congress, the nation’s top legislature, and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the country’s top political advisory body.
Xu Lyuping, a CPPCC member and former deputy head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, said the two sessions are especially significant this year, as 2021 marks the start of the country’s new five-year plan and the centenary of the CPC, the world’s largest ruling political party.
The two sessions will help pool wisdom and strength from people nationwide to implement decisions and policies made by the CPC Central Committee in order to get China’s new journey toward becoming a modern socialist country off to a good start, Xu said.
She added that the event will also be a good opportunity for the world to comprehensively understand how China will implement its new development philosophy and build the “dual circulation” paradigm.
“It will enable the rest of the world to see the opportunities China will create for it as the country develops further,” she added.
The two sessions are seen as a window to observe China’s development and as an embodiment of Chinese democracy.
Some 3,000 lawmakers will gather in Beijing to discuss major laws and regulations. They will also discuss and approve several key documents, including the Government Work Report and the national budget. More than 2,000 political advisers will participate in discussions of the documents and put forward their opinions and suggestions.
While shaping the political and economic agendas for the year ahead, the two sessions are also an event where plans for military, diplomatic, trade, environmental and other policies are announced.
This year, the event takes place as China is striving to become a modern socialist country after completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. It also gives the leadership an opportunity to outline longer-term plans that could define the nation’s future.
Lawmakers’ approval of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 will top the agenda for the annual NPC session, which opens on Friday, one day after the start of the CPPCC National Committee’s annual session.
This document is important, as it will formulate a practical blueprint for China’s economic growth and social development in the coming years.
Major choice
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the country will accelerate fostering the new development paradigm of “dual circulation”, where domestic and foreign markets boost each other, with the domestic market as the mainstay.
Xu described building a new development paradigm as “a major strategic choice” for China’s overall, systematic and deep-rooted transformation. She said it will help reshape the country’s competitive edge in international cooperation and competition, and contribute to its development in a more robust and sustainable manner.
The new development paradigm does not mean China will develop behind closed doors, Xu said, but it will push the country’s opening-up to a higher level and allow it to build even closer economic connections with the rest of the world and create broader market opportunities for other countries.
Profound changes in the domestic and international situations meant China had to readjust its development strategy when drawing up its economic and social development plan for the next five years. The nation aims to achieve sustained and healthy economic development with a focus on innovation-driven and high-quality growth.
As China shifts to the new development paradigm of “dual circulation”, it has made clear that there will be no change in its orientation toward the global economy. While tapping the potential of the domestic market, it will strive to build a higher-standard open economy.
Shan Hui, chief China economist for Goldman Sachs Research, said the key thinking behind the 14th Five-Year Plan is that China wants to focus on ways to make its economy more balanced and more resilient.
“We will be looking at how exactly the government spells out specific parameters to achieve those goals,” Shan said.
“For example, we might be watching urbanization. What’s the target for that? Given the importance of technology and innovation for China’s future growth, how much will be invested in research and development? Are there any specifics to encourage and promote consumption?”
Shan said technology, consumption and environmental protection are three important fields in which China will place greater emphasis in the 14th Five-Year Plan, adding, “If you think about the guiding principles, there’s the element of resilience, there’s an element of sustainability.”
Readjustment of the country’s development strategy is the result of significant changes in the international situation, particularly rising unilateralism and protectionism, and the backlash against economic globalization. The coronavirus pandemic has impacted the global economy and posed severe challenges to the country’s socioeconomic growth.
Huang Ping, a CPPCC member and former director of the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that under such circumstances, China’s decision to pursue high-quality, innovation-driven growth and the new development paradigm of “dual circulation” will contribute greater certainty to a volatile world.
The nation’s strategic achievements in controlling the pandemic had boosted the confidence of other countries fighting the virus, Huang said.
He added that the 14th Five-Year Plan to be approved by lawmakers at the two sessions, as well as the new development paradigm, would inject confidence and stability into the faltering global economy and changing international situation.
Analysts said it is hoped that specific plans will be announced at the two sessions for strengthening national strategic technologies to resolve major difficulties constraining development and security, as well as measures to promote reforms and opening-up in an all-around way.
Policy actions will also include a road map for carbon dioxide emissions to peak by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, they said.
New engines
Dong Zhiyong, dean of Peking University’s School of Economics, said China should step up the fostering of strategic emerging industry and development of new technologies to make them new engines to drive the economy and ensure stability of industrial and supply chains.
In terms of opening-up, China has said on various occasions it will keep opening its door wider to the world. In November, it signed the world’s biggest free-trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, with 14 Asian partners after eight years of negotiations.
A month later, China and the European Union announced the conclusion of negotiations on the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. The country is also considering joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement that evolved from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and covers a number of economies in Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Wang Shouwen, vice-minister of commerce, said last week that China had made informal contact with some of the CPTPP’s 11 members. The country plans to continue informal discussions with other members at a technical level to better understand the content of the agreement, Wang said.
Wei Jianguo, vice-chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said the next step for the country should be to improve its market system to make it fair and transparent, and provide a level playing field to domestic and international companies.
During the pandemic, China took the lead among major world economies, achieving positive economic growth last year, with an annual GDP expansion of 2.3 percent.
As the virus continues to rage across the world, and uncertainty and instability increase, the country faces tremendous challenges as it embarks on economic recovery.
Yan Zhi, an NPC deputy from Hubei province, said he wants to see more policy announcements at the two sessions to support the development of private companies.
“As a businessman, I hope to improve laws and regulations that help strengthen property protection for private companies,” said Yan, chairman of the Zall Group, a company specializing in property and trading services for the wholesale market in Wuhan, the Hubei provincial capital.
He said he also wants to see policy support from the government to reduce the impact of the pandemic on private business.
Experts said that due to the pandemic, it might be difficult for the government to set a specific GDP growth target this year. Instead, it is likely to place greater emphasis on high-quality expansion.
Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING, said: “Although we may not get a GDP growth target from the two sessions, we forecast GDP to grow by around 7 percent in 2021. This is largely due to the low base of only 2.3 percent growth in 2020.
“Structurally, we do not think the economy will change a lot. Domestic demand is still likely to act as the economy’s main stabilizer, while external demand could still be fragile as key export destinations slowly reopen after the pandemic,” Pang said, adding that international politics could continue to have an important impact on Chinese business.