Census to help China prepare for challenges
Editor’s note: The Pangoal Institution held a symposium, following the release of the results of the seventh census by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, to discuss the turning points the data reveal, the economic signals they send, and the challenges and opportunities they create. Following are excerpts from some experts’ observations:
Targeted urbanization rate will be realized
According to the census data, people living in cities account for 63.89 percent of China’s total population, indicating that China’s urbanization rate has significantly increased since 2019, and it will achieve the 65 percent urbanization rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, as planned.
While raising the urbanization rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the government should also raise the level and quality of urbanization, by providing more public services.
According to the data, Guangdong province has seen the highest population growth, increasing by more than 20 million to 126 million over the past 10 years. Guangdong also has a relatively low proportion of senior citizens — 12.35 percent — in the total provincial population. This shows that regions with a high degree of marketization attract more people, and only by adhering to the path of marketization can a region become more prosperous.
Yi Peng, president of the Pangoal Institution
Need to change social model
In the face of challenges, we need not hold a pessimistic attitude or only see the negative effects of an aging population. Population aging is not a problem, but the failure to adapt to the changing situation is indeed a big problem.
The traditional social system is built around a young society, but now we need to transform this social model using innovative means.
According to the census data, in a year or two, people aged 60 or above will account for 20 percent of China’s total population, which means the country will become an aging society.
Even a large population is not necessarily a problem, nor is a small population. The problem is that our population structure is changing, which includes changes in the numbers of newborns and senior citizens. These changes could pose serious challenges to our existing economic and social structure. And the need is to assess the different challenges the demographic changes could create and work out ways to address them.
Liang Chunxiao, director of the Aging Society Research Center at the Pangoal Institution
Analyze data to work out proper response
The census comes with a wide range of data. About 63.3 percent of
China’s population is between 15 and 59 years old. How many of these people will be above 60 or 65 in the next decade? Such data are important, as they tell us what kind of problems we could face in the next decade including fiscal, healthcare, pension and employment-related problems.
People aged between 60 and 69 years account for 55.83 percent of the total 60-plus-year-old population. Although I believe people just a little above 60 can work for some more years, the fact is that a fiveyear age gap, say, from 60 to 65 or from 65 to 70, makes a big difference. It means increased burden, reduced economic contribution and more difficulty in continuing to work, especially using new technologies. All these issues need to be further analyzed to determine how economic units should respond to these challenges in the future.
Mao Daqing, a member of the Pangoal Institution academic committee
Policies should address aging society problems
We should look at the declining fertility rate and rapidly rising aging population from the perspective of demographic theory and the law of population development.
The decline in fertility and mortality rates are the two main reasons for an aging society. Declining fertility means a decline in new births and fewer people being added to younger age groups, while a decline in the mortality rate means people are living longer and more elderly people are concentrated at the top of the age structure, leading to an aging population.
In the early years of the People’s Republic of China, the country’s life expectancy was about 43 years. Today, it is 77.3 years, and it will continue to increase. Therefore, the general trend of an aging population cannot be changed, and could lead to rising conflicts between generations, growing burden on households and more problems due to shortage of public services for senior citizens. The decision-makers need to formulate policies to address the accelerating aging society problem.
Yuan Xin, a demographer at Nankai University
Coordinate economic and social policies
The so-called two-child policy came into effect more than five years ago, yet the annual number of newborns in China has decreased instead of increasing. Why do couples choose to not have more children?
It is difficult to solve the problems associated with raising a child, especially the financial burden. At the national level, in addition to promoting fertility, we should also better coordinate the economic and social policies. For example, policymakers should deliberate on how to reduce high and rising housing prices in some regions, and make healthcare and children’s education affordable.
It is more important for the authorities to address people’s childbearing concerns than to simply lift the restrictions on childbearing.
Guan Qingyou, chief economist at Rushi Institute of Advanced Finance
A balanced regional development required
According to the seventh national census, except for the eastern region, the proportions of regional population to the nations’ total in China’s central, western and northeastern regions have shown a downward trend, with a negative rate of 1.2 percentage points in Northeast China.
As such, in the eastern region, where the population has been increasing, there may be a healthy supply of public goods such as healthcare and education resources, while Northeast China, which has seen a decline in population, may not have enough quality medical and educational resources.
Therefore, policymakers should pay greater attention to the central, western and northeastern regions when formulating development policies, and consider effective ways to enhance regional attractiveness.
Ye Qing, a professor at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
Demographic dividends should not be only focus
Aging societies is a global phenomenon, and the population aging trend is by and large irreversible. The increase in elderly population is the result of social transition from high rates of reproduction and mortality to low rates of reproduction and mortality.
Yet China is still a very populous country and there is no solid evidence to suggest “China’s demographic dividends are disappearing”.
Besides, thanks to new technology, the business ecology and manufacturing are undergoing unprecedented changes across the world, including in China. So it is superficial to talk about economic development only in terms of “demographic dividends”.
Given the current economic and technological development pattern, even after China has a higher birth rate can we still rely on the so-called “demographic dividends” to maintain our status as the “world’s factory” based on the low cost of labor like in the 1980s?
Wan Zhe, secretary-general of the Pangoal Institution academic committee
Let families make their own decisions
The population policy alone, even if accompanied by incentives, cannot help increase the fertility rate. So the authorities should allow couples to make their own family planning.
From the labor market’s perspective, demographic dividends can be increased, to a large extent, by advancing science and technology and making institutional changes, rather than by just using policies to help increase new births.
Ma Qiji, a senior researcher on digital economics
Next decade to see rapid aging population growth
According to the census, the population aged above 60 has reached 264 million, while that of people aged 65 or above has risen significantly to more than 190 million.
Also, from 2020, people born in the 1960s started turning 60. The number of people born in the 1960s is much higher than those born in any other decade including the 1950s and 1970s.
This means China has entered a decade of rapid aging population growth, which will be fiercer and have a bigger impact on socioeconomic development than previously imagined.