At the midway point of 2018, Hong Kong’s property market remains stable; prices are climbing and supply is still low.
2018年中期，香港樓市氣氛不變，樓價持續攀升，供應持續偏低。
It is unlikely the Monetary Authority or any government body is going to loosen the cooling measures that have done what little they can to control the market.住宅物業價格不斷上升，縱使辣招作用輕微，金管局或其他政府部門也未必減辣。
The highlight of the 2018 property year so far is easily the news of a car parking space selling for an astonishing HK$6 million—the cost of a three-bedroom flat in Kingswood Villas, two bedrooms in Kennedy Town—and setting yet another record. The day after the sale, Chief Executive Carrie Lam offered searing insights about how she was “extremely concerned” to The Standard. She's on it.
Sarcasm aside, the first six months of the year in property terms were similar to the previous six months: prices are rising (up 22.8% from April 2017 to 2018 according to Knight Frank and for the 25th straight month), affordability is falling (according to Inland Revenue only 20% of the SAR'S 1.85 million taxpayers can afford an HK$8 million flat) and Cushman & Wakefield forecast another 5% price growth by the end of the year; Knight Frank estimates as much as 12%. Lam should be concerned.
Commercial Matters
If there's a silver lining in Hong Kong's property cloud it's in commercial markets. Rents are trending up in prime Island districts as well as decentralised Kowloon locations; the office sector is as healthy as it's ever been. Better news though is retail's continued rebound. Though high street rents continue to sit below record peaks, retail sales grew 12% year-on-year through April, with the crucial luxury goods sector up 24.6%. Premium malls should see continued rental growth—up to 6% for the rest of 2018—as vacant street shops slowly find tenants ready to take up leases while rents are still soft in locations such as Tsim Sha Tsui. Knight Frank's senior director and head of retail services, Helen Mak, adds, “Overall retail sales have definitely improved…same-day visitors are the main drivers of this, given the proximity between Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area.” The region formerly known as the Pearl River Delta is set to capture a great deal of the region's 66 million-strong consumer market on the strength of forthcoming new transport connections, chiefly the Hong Kong-zhuhai-macao Bridge, significantly set to open on July 1—the 21st anniversary of the handover and Lam's first anniversary in office.
But just as one challenge seems vanquished another looms on the horizon. Various factors have kept Hongkongers from fully embracing online shopping: only 3.1% of retail sales here were online transactions in 2016, whereas Asia averages 11.1% and South Korea leads the region at 18.4%. Retailers and malls are already reinventing themselves due to changing demographics and preferences, and it is impacting rental rates. Is the sector's recovery about to be stunted by e-commerce?
直至現在， 2018年的樓市走勢可從一個車位售600萬的例子中反映出來，價格相當於嘉湖山莊一個三房單位，或堅尼地城的兩房單位，成交創下新高。及後，行政長官林鄭月娥向《The Standard》表明她「極力關注」樓市情況。她已著手處理。
挖苦的話暫且不說，首六個月樓市表現與之前六個月沒太大分別：樓價不斷上升（萊坊統計顯示由2017年4月至今，樓價升22.8%，連升25個月）；買家負擔能力不斷下降（據稅務局統計本港185萬納稅人之中只有20%有能力購買800萬的單位）；戴德梁行預計到年底，樓價有額外5%升幅，萊坊則估計12%。林鄭當然要極力關注！
商廈市場
如果說香港物業市場尚有樂觀一面，那就是商用物業市場，在港島主要地區和偏離九龍市中心地段的商廈租金節節上升，寫字樓市道處於穩健。再者，零售業持續反彈，縱使購物區舖租較高峰期低，但4月份零售業較去年同期上升12%，奢侈品銷售升近24.6%。大型商場租金亦持續攀升，預測下半年有6%升幅，主要購物街如尖沙咀的空置舖位亦因租金回軟而逐漸出租。萊坊高級董事及商舖部主管麥海倫補充：「整體零售市道改善 香港鄰近大灣區，即日來回旅客帶動零售增長。」前稱珠三角的大灣區，消費市場規模達6,600萬，香港可從即將開通的交通運輸連繫（即港珠澳大橋）中受惠。大橋預計在7月1日通車，以慶祝特區政府成立21周年，以及林鄭上任一周年。
“We perceive e-commerce and traditional shops as cooperative partners instead of competitors. Brick and mortar shops are an important channel for brands to provide customer experience,” says Mak. “Besides, many retailers, like F&B, convenience stores and pharmacies, cannot be replaced by online shopping.” In other words, turnover rents are safe. For now.
The Home Front
With residential prices continuing their upward climb, it is unlikely the Monetary Authority or any government body is going to loosen the cooling measures that have done what little they can to control the market. Part of the affordability problem—of which Hong Kong leads the world—however, has little to do with land or flat prices. “Housing price growth has far exceeded income growth in the past years,” points out Thomas Lam, senior director and head of valuation and advisory at Knight Frank. “That is why affordability remains a concern, especially for first-time buyers. The government should actively look for a long-term solution to the issue.” That's easier said than done, as global trade relations are taking a hit worldwide thanks to Washington's belligerence, and interest rates are normalised. Those factors influence business sentiment, the kind that leaves Hong Kong with a glut of mediumearning jobs or stagnant salaries.
Without incomes to match, the HKMA is right to keep LTV ratios high (demanding 60% down payment in some cases) in the event interest rates rise (which they will). Not even unlocking the massive 1.2 million units of supply is likely to help affordability as Lam sees it, and will only lead to more available stock—which the BSD 12-month exemption was supposed to help. “The current exemption of stamp duty only helps people who own one flat change to another. The total number of flats on the market has not increased,” he argues.
Nonetheless the secondary market has rebounded in the first half of the year. While primary sales peaked at 31% in 2016, Knight Frank estimates they'll fall to 25% this year, and Alva To, Cushman & Wakefield's vice president and head of consulting, Greater China, thinks the BSD exemption did work.
然而，當問題看似解決，另一問題接踵而來。不同因素令港人對網購表現冷淡， 2016年，香港的網購交易只有3.1%，亞洲平均數為11.1%，南韓成為區內之首，達18.4%。零售商和商場因應人口結構和消費者喜好的變化而作出改動，該變化亦影響到租金。電子商貿會否阻礙零售業的復甦？
麥海倫表示：「我認為電子商貿和傳統商店應是合作夥伴而非競爭對手。實體店是品牌為顧客提供體驗的重要渠道。此外，許多零售商如餐飲業、便利店及藥房不可能被網店所取代。」換句話說，目前，租金回報仍然安全。
住宅市場
住宅物業價格不斷上升，縱使辣招作用輕微，金管局或其他政府部門也未必減辣。香港樓價是全世界最難負擔的，部份成因卻與地價和樓價無關，萊坊高級董事及估價及諮詢主管林浩文指出：「多年來，房價增幅已遠遠超過薪金增幅，負擔能力一直備受關注，特別是首次置業人士，政府應主動尋找長遠的解決方案。」但知易行難，全球貿易因華府挑起貿易戰而受挫，加上利率正常化，這些因素影響了營商氣氛，令香港出現大量中等收入工作，亦令薪金停滯不前。
“There are increasing cases of secondary sales because the resale restriction in the form of stamp duties began to expire and thus has freed up some of the secondary supply.” To argues developers are feeling confident, and all the factors for sustained price growth remain in place, positing that “home prices are not going to falter any time soon.”
Days to Come
Perhaps they won't fall, but supply could be bolstered in the second half of the year, thanks to June's officially announced vacancy tax. The thinking in Legco is that levies on unsold, vacant stock that developers traditionally keep (or hoard) as they wait for price increases would compel them to release them instead. Unsold flats account for over 20% of all residential vacancies in the city—up from 8% in 2012 but below 2006's record high of 30%. Other measures include unlinking governmentsubsidised housing prices from private market rates, reallocating six sites previously earmarked for private luxury development to affordable housing.
JLL'S managing director Joseph Tsang, called the vacancy tax “a ‘spicy' measure, which will increase costs significantly for developers.” Adding that “asking prices for brand new residential projects will become less aggressive,” he theorised the tax would have no impact on mass sales. “The government has misplaced its focus. The introduction of the vacancy tax and the amendment to pre-sale consent will only affect the luxury market.” Developers rely on volume, not price, in the mass sector. “The new tax will not trigger a price fall in the property market, but price growth will slow,” finished Tsang.
Unsurprisingly, The Real Estate Developers Association of Hong Kong opposed the tax, and Colliers International agreed it would do little to slow prices. “The lack of land supply as well as low interest rates are major factors for rising residential prices,” said Colliers in a statement. Whether the target of one million required units by 2046 holds up remains to be seen, but either way there's only enough land for 600,000. Better still, “it is possible for developers to work around the new tax scheme, for example by extending the construction period, potentially creating a slower housing cycle,” theorised Colliers. “Developers might also shift the holding costs to individual buyers by increasing selling prices, or become less aggressive on bids for new development lands.” The more things change…
因為薪金不能配合，在利息增加的情況下（相信會增加），香港金管局維持高企的按揭成數（部分首期要求高達6成）。林浩文認為即使推出多達120萬個單位，亦無助負擔能力，只是令市場有更多單位供應，這亦是豁免買家印花稅一年的作用。他說：「目前豁免印花稅的措施是幫助換樓客，市場的單位總數沒有增加。」 儘管如此，二手市場在上半年反彈。2016
年，一手市場的銷售量增加31%，萊坊預計今年下跌25%，而戴德梁行大中華區副總裁及策略發展顧問部主管陶汝鴻認為豁免買家印花稅具成效，他說：「由於印花稅限期快到，二手買賣轉趨活躍，釋放更多二手單位供應。」陶汝鴻認為發展商充滿信心，所有推動樓價上升的因素亦依然存在，所以他說：「樓價不會很快出現下滑。」
未來去向
樓價或許不會回落，但下半年供應有可能增加，政府在6月份正式宣佈推出空置稅，相等於應課差餉租值的200%。立法會認為發展商一般會囤積單位，待售價上升時推出，而向空置單位徵稅，可迫使發展商放售手上的單位。本港未出售單位約佔整體空置單位的20%， 2012年只有8%，高峰期是2006年的30%。其他措施還包括政府資助房屋價格與市價脫勾，把早前撥出的六幅地皮由興建豪宅改為興建資助房屋。
仲量聯行董事總經理曾煥平認為：「政府徵收空置稅是『辣招』，將令發展商成本顯著增加，新盤開價將會較『貼地』。」他亦表示稅項對中小型住宅銷售影響不大。「政府推出的辣招錯焦點，空置稅及修改預售樓花同意書規定兩招，其實對豪宅市場影響最大。」對發展商來說，中小型住宅項目銷售是求量，而不是價格，曾煥平表示：「新稅項只會令樓價升幅減慢，不會導致樓價下跌。」
一如所料，香港地產建設商會反對徵收空置稅，高力國際同意新稅無助減慢升幅，並表示：「缺乏土地供應和低利率才是樓價高企的主因。」2046年的單位供應能否達到100萬這個目標，仍是未知之數。但現時的土地只足夠興建60萬個單位。高力國際補充：「發展商有可能避過新稅收，例如加長建築時間，反而令房屋供應周期放緩。發展商亦有可能將成本轉嫁給個別買家，例如增加售價，又或在投地時變得謹慎。」更多事情還在醞釀中