Interpreting Hong Kong's New Vacancy Tax
香港的新房策 - 空置稅
香港的新房策 - 空置稅
On June 30th, the government announced its new policy imposing a vacancy tax on developers regarding unsold first-hand private residential flats, constituting a tax amounting to two years of rental value for units that have not been occupied or rented out for more than six of the preceding 12 months. The tax will be imposed each year that a property is considered vacant on this measure. At current rental-to-sale values, this equates to a tax of approximately 4-5% of the property value each year.
When developers introduce new supplies to the market, the prices of these properties should be driven by market forces—supply and demand, paired with the developer's cost of capital. If a developer is focused on selling quickly, they are motivated to reduce the asking price of new properties while providing other incentives such as financing schemes. However, they cannot always predict what the market reaction will be when they launch developments. If the units are not selling well, lowering prices will upset early purchasers who would take it to mean the value of their property has been ‘reduced'. Furthermore, if prospective buyers believe that prices may come down if they wait, it discourages home seekers from buying units released earlier.
The vacancy tax puts developers in a difficult position. To ensure that all their units get sold or leased, they will be forced to launch new developments at lower prices. How much lower depends on the developer's assessment of the severity of the tax versus their projection of demand at given prices. It becomes somewhat of a guessing game. Developers have voiced strong protests against the vacancy tax, claiming it is unfair since it does not apply to second-hand owners who, in aggregate, hold the most unsold units (approximately 43,000 units at the end of 2017, or about 80% of all unsold flats). It is also especially awkward for developers who have existing unsold inventory or are about to launch new projects, since they have invested and built those projects without the tax (and lower prices) in mind.
Lowered prices ultimately reduce the profitability of future development projects, creating a paradox: if property development is less profitable, fewer new residential units will be built. Developers may even shift their focus to office developments. A severe vacancy tax could end up reducing the new supply that Hong Kong's housing market needs, hence why this vacancy tax was relatively mild. The immediate net impact on the total housing supply will be small. Even if all developer-owned unsold units were sold at lower prices, these only constitute approximately 0.8% of the market—not enough to materially impact broader prices.
Only by imposing a broader vacancy tax on all owners of vacant properties (as announced in Vancouver) can the government materially increase supply. But it's difficult to see this happening given the negative public reaction and political repercussions it would cause. Other cooling measures have significantly reduced transaction volumes, increasing the length of time needed to sell. Pinning home owners between the contradicting forces created by a vacancy tax and the existing cooling measures isn't fair either. This may explain why the announced vacancy tax is only targeting developers.
The bottom line is that this vacancy tax will likely have minimal impact. In theory it could be a precursor to broader vacancy tax measures over time, though whether or not the government would introduce such a tax is another issue.
政府於6月30日公布一項新政策，就未售出的一手私人住宅向發展商徵收空置稅，稅額相當於任何過去十二個月內超過六個月未用作居住或出租用途單位的兩年租金。空置稅將向被視為空置的單位按年徵收。按現時租值，每年徵收額大約相等同該物業價值的4-5%。
發展商向市場推出新供應時，物業價格基本上與市場需求推動及發展商的資本成本掛勾，如發展商為刺激銷售，將降低新盤售價（並額外提供如按揭計劃等優惠）。然而，發展商推出新項目時亦未能百分百預測其市場反應。如單位銷情冷淡，發展商難以再進一步降價促銷，經已入市的買家或感到其單位「貶值」。此外，準買家亦因樓價可能下降，傾向延遲買樓計劃。
徵收空置稅，令發展商舉步維艱。發展商將被迫以較低價目推出新盤，務求所有單位都能順利出售或出租。降價幅度取決於發展商對於稅收輕重及市場需求的評估而定，猶如一場猜謎遊戲。發展商認為空置稅只向一手業主徵收並不公平。相對一手業主，二手業主持有大部分未售出單位（截至二零一七年底約43,000個單位，或佔所有未售出單位的約80%）。持有未售出的貨尾或即將推出新項目的發展商處於尷尬位置，因在投資及建造這些項目時，空置稅（或較低價格）並未在計劃之內。
較低樓價亦降低未來發展住宅的盈利，且帶來矛盾：假如物業發展的盈利降低，落成的新住宅單位量亦將降低，發展商甚至將發展重點轉向商廈。重徵空置稅將減少香港住宅市場供應，亦解釋為何已公布的空置稅相對溫和，對於總供應的即時影響不大。由發展商持有的未售出單位僅佔總市場約0.8%，不足以對於廣泛價格造成實質影響。
若向所有空置物業持有者徵收空置稅（仿效溫哥華），政府的確能增加實質供應量。但鑒於所衍生的負面公眾反應及政治影響，應較難成行。政府現時其他冷卻房策顯注減低成交量及增加銷售時間，業主如需於空置稅及現有冷卻措施的矛盾中取捨並不公平。這或解釋為何新公布的空置稅只針對發展商。
空置稅將產生的影響不大，理論上應為政府在未來推行更廣泛空置稅房策前「試水溫」，政府最終會否推行此稅收，值得更深一層探討。