A Look at Shanghai’s Retail Property Market

上海商場市場近況

上海商場市場近況

Shanghai's retail market remains active; new shopping mall openings have added nearly 500,000 square metres of commercial space to the market. From January to October 2018, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Shanghai have reached more than RMB 1 trillion, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year. This is the first time since 2008 that the RMB 1 trillion mark has been breached, a reflection of this mature consumer market power reaching new heights. Over the same period, the sales volume of retail properties was recorded at 646,000 square metres, an increase of 6% year-on-year; the average selling price per square metre was RMB 23,739, down 12% year-on-year.

Lease demand is mainly driven by the continued escalation of consumption and has led to a diversification of market demand. Newly opened shopping malls, in addition to shopping, dining, parenting and entertainment, are also introducing new concept stores, electric cars and ice skating rinks. However, there are concerns over high vacancy rates in such new malls, mainly due to the increasingly fierce market competition. This phenomenon of rent retreat is rather common, and the overall retreat is maintaining at approximately 5% to 10%, largely because of a disparity between rent and passenger flow. Meanwhile, most brands usually require upgrades every three to eight years, and the rate of rent retreat will climb to an even higher level of 30% to 40%.

In the short term, companies from the food and beverage sector will continue to dominate demand in the leasing market with online brands actively seeking offline expansion in the next few quarters. The first store for any concept, especially within the catering industry, will undoubtedly attract customers' attention, and there is still an upward pressure on vacancy rate in core areas. The yearly rental increase for the first floor of retail will also decrease to approximately RMB 1,500 per square metre next year.

上海商場市場持續活躍，新商場開業，為市場新增近50萬平方米的商業面積，零售市場大致保持平穩，其中1至10月上海實現消費品零售總額達一萬多億元人民幣，按年升3.5%，亦是自2008年首次突破一萬億元人民幣大關，反映這個成熟的消費市場動力得以保持及再創高峰值。同期，零售物業的銷售量為646,000平方米，同比升6%；每平方米平均售價為23,739元人民幣，同比卻下降12%。

租賃需求主要來自消費持續升級所影響，並促使市場需求更趨多樣化。新開業的商場，除了主要以購物、餐飲、親子及娛樂等商業業態為主外，更引入新零售概念店、電動汽車、以及溜冰場等體驗式消費。另外，某些新商場受高空置率所困擾，主要原因是市場競爭越來越激烈。商舖退租現象常見，受租金與客人流量不太相配所影響，整體退租維持在5%-10%的水準。同時，品牌每隔3-8年便需要更新換代，退租率甚至會攀升至30%-40%的較高水準。

來自餐飲和時尚領域的品牌短期內仍將是主導租賃需求量。在線品牌在未來數季將積極尋求線下擴張。首間商店，尤其是餐飲業的第一間店舖，將繼續增加並吸引客戶廣泛關注。核心區域空置率仍有上升壓力；而零售市場首層月租升幅亦會按年放緩至約每平方米一千五百元人民幣。