World View
環球展望
Investing overseas next year? Here's a look at where the smart money is going globally in 2019.打算投資海外？以下是2019年 全球各地樓市走勢。
Investing overseas next year? Here’s a look at where the smart money is going globally in 2019.打算投資海外？以下是2019年全球各地樓市走勢。
We know Hong Kong is on the cusp of a challenging year in property, the first such year in nearly a decade, and many of the factors pressing down on the SAR in 2019 will exert themselves on other parts of the world too. If one thing binds us, it's political instability, quickly followed by China's faltering economy. After a strong 2018 for global investment, “There are signs that activity is slowing as we move into 2019 and volumes are likely to moderate next year,” said JLL in its November Global Market Perspective. But the news isn't all bad, and not surprisingly, there are several silver linings in the clouds.
The UK
The elephant in the room is the UK'S official exit from the EU on March 29 and the parliamentary vote that didn't happen on December 11 last year. Fearing the deal as it stood would be rejected, Prime Minister Theresa May postponed voting, and (as of printing) is now dealing with Labour bucking for a snap parliamentary vote in late December, and former PM Tony
香港物業市場正迎來重重挑戰，是過去10年來首次，不少在2019年影響本港的因素也影響著全球樓市。其中一個憂慮是政治不穩定，以及中國經濟放緩。2018年環球投資走勢強勁，仲量聯行在其11月份《Global Market Perspective》中表示：「踏入2019年，有跡象顯示投資活動放緩，成交數量相對溫和。」但報告中不是所有消息都是壞的，陰霾之中還有幾度曙光。
英國
很明顯，英國最棘手的問題是將於3月29日啟動脫歐程序，以及去年12月11日首相文翠珊押後國會12月11日脫歐方案表決，以免協議被否決。現時（截至本刊付印前）文翠珊正在處理工黨將於12月底議會表決時投反對票的問題，而前首相 Tony Blair則建議新一輪公投，文翠珊政府表明投票不會遲於1月21日舉行。在這段期間，英鎊匯價下挫。
萊坊全球研究部主管Liam Bailey表示：「自2016年中公投完畢後，英國樓市一直蒙上政治前景未明的陰影。」他補充，延遲投票只會把英國的不明朗延續到新一年。然而，正當英鎊跌至20個月新低，
Blair suggesting a new referendum. May's government has stated a vote will be no later than January 21, but in the meantime, the sterling is in freefall.
“The London market has been operating under political uncertainty since mid2016 when the EU Referendum took place,” notes Knight Frank's global head of research, Liam Bailey, adding that the vote delay simply extends the period of uncertainty in the UK to the new year. And while the pound drops to a 20-month low, London's property market continues to chug along. According to Bailey, demand is robust and sales activity is running 7% better than it was in 2017. “The window of opportunity for international buyers is reaching very compelling levels, with a discount of 30% offered for dollar-based or
倫敦樓市卻持續攀升。據Bailey表示，市場需求急升，銷售活動較2017年增加7%。Bailey說：「倫敦樓市的機遇對國際買家來說十分有吸引力，與三年前相比，基於市場和貨幣變動，買家以美元為基礎或與美元掛 的貨幣入市，相等於獲得30%折扣。」再者，英國經濟增長強勁，失業率創歷史新低，今年表現會較其他歐洲國家出色。 dollar-pegged buyers, due to market and currency movement, compared to three years ago,” says Bailey. The economy is strong, unemployment is at a record low and the UK will outperform Europe this year.
But in its annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate survey, PWC stated 70% of its European respondents believed that the UK would have a harder time attracting talent post-brexit, regardless of the deal it strikes. “As many as three quarters of survey respondents believe that business relocations will increase to continental Europe in 2019 as a result of Brexit while similar numbers predict a decline in UK investment and values,” said PWC. Noneuropeans were less bothered, but they too expect the two economies to diverge and that ultimately, the UK would suffer.
但普華永道在其《Emerging Trends in Real Estate》年刊中表示，7成受訪人士相信不論日後達成甚麼協議，英國在脫歐後將更難吸納人才。普華永道表示：「多達四分之三的受訪者相信在2019年因受到脫歐影響，越來越多企業遷往其他歐洲城市；同等受訪人數預測英國的投資額度和物業價值均會下跌。」雖然脫歐對歐洲以外人士沒太大影響，但他們亦意料到兩個經濟體系從此分開，將為英國帶來負面影響。
APAC
Asia Pacific is at the end of a boom cycle, and as markets cool off, they are also facing headwinds in the form of a critical Sinous trade war and a sputtering engine in the form of China. Quantitative easing is easing and interest rates are finally on the way up. As PWC puts it, “Across the region, upwardly spiralling prices, compressed cap rates, and ominous macro and geopolitical indicators have fund managers and asset owners wondering whether the markets have finally peaked … The same question has been nagging investors in Asia for years — but this time, alarm bells are ringing louder than ever.”
But the fundamentals in APAC have yet to truly fall off; major and record-setting
亞太地區
亞太區經濟增長周期完結，各個市場表現回落，同時受到中美貿易戰衝擊，而中國增長引擎亦逐步減慢。目前量化寬鬆緩和，利率重拾升軌。普華永道指出：「橫跨整個亞太區，價格上漲、上限率受壓，以及不祥的宏觀經濟和地緣政治指標，令基金經理及資產持有人懷疑市場是否已見頂...這問題困擾亞洲投資者多年，但這次，警鐘聲特別明亮。」
但亞太區經濟基礎尚未真正下調，機構投資者活動繼續創下新紀錄，各個市場對 institutional transactions continue, and residential demand in all markets and price bands remains unchanged. Tokyo, Auckland, Sydney, Melbourne, Hong Kong and Singapore may have peaked, but there's plenty of opportunity as evidenced by massive inbound capital into the region; five of Knight Frank's Prime Global Residential Index locations for 2019 are in APAC. Melbourne tops Pwc's forecast this year, for its office supply constraints and resulting strong yields and stellar immigration patterns that will buoy any downturns in the residential sector, like the one in 2018. Following Melbourne are Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Shanghai, Osaka, Ho Chi Minh City, Shenzhen, Seoul (despite tensions with China) and Guangzhou. 住宅的需求維持不變，物業價格亦如是。東京、奧克蘭、悉尼、墨爾本、香港和新加坡可能已見頂，但區內仍有大量資金從海外湧入，仍是充滿機遇。萊坊2019年Prime Global Residential指數中有五個地方來自亞太區；今年，墨爾本在普華永道的預測中排首位。一如2018年，當地寫字樓供應緊絀，令回報急升，大量的移民人口成為支撐樓市的動力。排在墨爾本之後是新加坡、悉尼、東京、上海、大阪、胡志明市、深圳、首爾（縱使與中國關係緊張）和廣州。
Europe
Like many places, Europe's recent bull run is winding down. Most of Europe has recovered from 2008 and supply and demand are in good balance. Also like many places, affordable housing is an ongoing challenge, and so among the most popular assets for investors this year will be in coliving spaces, retirement housing, student housing and purpose-built rental housing.
Also, trending in 2019 is Europe's secondtier. Leading the way is Lisbon, for its quality of living and progressive, reform-minded leadership. “Portugal's economy is growing
歐洲
與其他地方一樣，歐洲牛市也在減弱，大部份歐洲地區經濟自2008年起復甦，供求達致平衡，但始終未解決樓價難負擔的問題，所以今年較受投資者歡迎的資產是共享生活空間、退休人士住房、學生宿舍和出租房屋。
另一方面，歐洲二線城市於2019年備受注目，首選為里斯本，賣點是其生活質素和 at a healthy clip, and its capital is now an international destination for companies, investors and tourists,” said PWC, and Lisbon is benefitting from Barcelona's political upheaval. Rounding out the top ten for 2019 were perpetual favourites Berlin, Dublin, Madrid — which also topped Knight Frank's Prime Global ranking — Frankfurt, Amsterdam (both assumed targets of business migration from London), Hamburg, Helsinki, Vienna and Munich. Birmingham, Manchester and Edinburgh all ranked above London in the UK for PWC this year. 銳意改革的政府。普華永道表示：「葡萄牙經濟增長穩健，首都吸引無數國際企業、投資者和遊客。」里斯本因巴塞羅那的騷亂而得益，首10位城市還包括柏林、都柏林、馬德里（在萊坊Prime Global榜中排首位）、法蘭克福、阿姆斯特丹（兩者都是倫敦企搬遷的目的地）、漢堡、赫爾辛基、維也納及慕尼黑。今年普華永道把英國的伯明翰、曼徹斯特和愛丁堡排在倫敦之上。
North America
The United States and Canada are the places most likely to roll the dice and try something new, making the North American property market more complex than it appears on the surface. Its diverse demographics and equally diverse policy among the US, Mexico and Canada guarantee it. For that reason, PWC predicts 2019 will be a turning point. Rates are going up there too and a correction is coming to overpriced locations like Vancouver and Miami. The American star this year will be Boston, where immigration, world-renowned schools and graduate retention, redevelopment and sustainability put its property market at the forefront for investors. Likewise, gearing up for a strong year are a mix of gateways and rising second-tier cities: Dallas/fort
北美
北美物業市場比想像中複雜，單是看美國、墨西哥和加拿大的人口結構和政策的多樣化可見一斑。美國和加拿大很有可能推出新政策刺激市場，因此，普華永道預計在2019年，美加市場將會出現轉捩點，北美的利率亦開始上升，溫哥華和邁阿密等過熱樓市將會出現調整。今年美國的亮點是波士頓，原因是當地移民、國際知名學校、留下來發展的畢業生、重建計劃以至可持續措施，均有利物業市場發展，因而得到投資者的青睞；新興的門戶及二線城市亦於今天有不錯表現，當中包括達拉斯／沃斯堡、丹佛、紐約 Worth, Denver, New York — specifically Brooklyn — Raleigh-durham, Nashville, Austin, Charlotte, Orlando and Tampa/st Petersburg.
In Canada, Toronto is the market to watch once again, based on the fact that the city is projected to welcome over 400,000 new international residents by 2022. Federal and provincial governments have tried to cool the city's overheated market, “But strong drivers of demand remain indisputable. The region is also feeling the effects of demographic shifts,” said PWC, noting millennials are entering the market in droves. Vancouver ranks second, and long dormant Montréal is poised to have a strong 2019 for its comparative affordability. （特別是布魯克林）、羅利達拉姆、納什維爾、奧斯汀、夏洛特、奧蘭多及坦帕灣／聖彼得堡。
在加拿大，多倫多再次成為焦點，預計到2022年，多倫多會有40萬來自世界各地的居民，聯邦及省政府已嘗試冷卻過熱的市場，普華永道表示：「毫無疑問，當地樓市由需求帶動，區內亦感受到人口結構轉變所帶來的影響。」同時，普華永道亦注意到千禧世代紛紛在多倫多入市。溫哥華則是第二受歡迎，而沉寂已久的蒙特利爾，因其相對容易負擔的樓價，預計在2019年也有強勁增長。