Stay Calm in Times of Market Volatility

樓價風高浪急 宜冷靜處理

樓價風高浪急宜冷靜處理

Last month, Donald Trump and Xi Jingping declared a 90-day trade ceasefire after their dinner meeting during the G20 summit in Argentina. As the good news gave the stock market a much-needed boost, relieved investors thought the housing market, too, would be out of the woods for the time being. However, a mere few days later, Meng Wanzhou, CFO and heiress of China telecom giant Huawei, was arrested during a layover in Canada, facing possible extradition to the US. Despite efforts from both sides to de-escalate the situation, Meng's detention surely has put a huge damper on the warm fuzzy feeling brought about by the ceasefire agreement.

Trade war or criminal prosecution, the end goal of the Trump administration is to ultimately hinder the rise of China as a global superpower, but both measures are rather moronic and will probably hurt American interests more in the long run. Still, such thoughtless agendas will have thoughtless supporters for now, and so may just carry on for a while longer. Looking into the future, however, it's more likely for the US to lose more allies along the way and sabotage its own global standing.

For investors, what lies ahead are waves of market instability. Apart from the Us-china conflicts, Brexit is certainly going to deal a serious blow to the market. As Theresa May postponed the final Parliament's vote on the Brexit deal that was previously slated for December 11, the possibility of her being booted out of office grows with every passing day and it seems rather likely for the UK to end up leaving the EU with no deal. To be honest, I didn't think Brexit was going to end well from the get-go: on the one hand, the EU was never going to make the UK good offers, understandably because that could open Pandora's box and lead to a slew of exits, ultimately threatening the very existence of the EU; on the other hand, a Brexit deal with so many inherent flaws would never get the Parliament's backing. The only outcome is doom.

Having taken a number of hits in a short period of time, Hong Kong's housing market has experienced a notable decline in sales. While those in a rush to cash out will have to slash prices significantly to attract prospective buyers, we have seen that once a property's price has dropped by 20%, it tends to get snatched up very quickly. A large new urban development just opened for sale in December with an average per-square-foot price of HK$17,388—30% lower than expected. Since its release, the developers have received over 6,000 applications from eager home buyers and can probably expect a total sellout. This further proves that as long as prices adjust downward, there is a sizable demand for homes.

If you do have properties to sell off right now, a price slash is almost inevitable, but there's no need to panic. I believe the city's housing market will still be in robust shape in the long term, so stay calm and don't make any hasty moves if you are not in urgent need of cash.

上月，正當大家見到習近平與特朗普在阿根廷的工作晚宴，帶來了暫時停戰的好消息，正當鬆了一口氣，股市又回升，估計樓市可以暫時脫離險境。不料，在差不多同一時間，中國華為的副主席，又是大股東任正非的女兒孟晚舟在加拿大過境時，加以拘捕。雖然兩國官員之後都不斷為事件降溫，但原有的緩和氣氛，便一掃而空。

無論利用貿易戰或是刑事起訴孟晚舟，目的若是阻礙中國崛起，都是「弱智」的方法，對美國本身的長遠後遺症可能更大。但短期來說，「弱智」方案有「弱智」選民支持，看來還會持續一段時間。長遠而言，美國只會失去更多盟友的支持，世界盟主的地位可說是岌岌可危。

但作為投資者，無可避免是要面對眼前一浪又一浪的震盪。除了中美之間的矛盾，英國的脫歐事件，也將為市場帶來新一輪的衝擊。最新消息是文翠珊押後原來星期二在國會的脫歐表決，文翠珊下台的機會愈來愈大，英國也有很大可能在無協議下脫離歐盟。由始至終，筆者都看淡這個脫歐協議可以順利誕生，歐盟不會讓英國有好條件，否則個個國家都仿效，對歐盟來說，是生死存亡之事，一個有先天缺陷的方案，又怎會獲得英國國會的支持？結果只會不歡而散。

雖然短期樓市受到重重打擊，交投減少。急於套現者，必須大刀闊斧減價，才能獲得承接，但樓市的底子仍然很好，減價兩成的筍盤很快便會售出。12月份剛有一個大型全新市區樓盤推出，呎價平均$17,388，比預期平了三成，已經全城起動。入票量超過6,000票，相信可以「一Q清袋」。所以，只要樓價向下調，承接力仍然是良好。

大家如有需要，急於出售物業套現，當然無法避免減價，但也無需太過受到短期的負面消息而自亂陣腳。長線而言，香港的樓市仍然穩健，大家宜冷靜處理，如果沒有財政上的急需，宜靜觀其變。