Mortgage Easing to Boost Healthy Market Growth
全面放寬樓按 樓市健康發展
全面放寬樓按 樓市健康發展
Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po caused a buzz in early January when he hinted that he would consider relaxing the mortgage requirements. Looking back, the government has introduced no less than a dozen cooling measures in the past decade to rein in the city's home prices—some effective, some less so, and some were even counterproductive. In a time when housing costs reach new heights almost every month, the government is most likely to launch new market-curbing measures rather than withdraw existing ones.
However, Hong Kong's ever-rising home prices experienced a near 10% drop in the fourth quarter of 2018. This downward adjustment is expected to continue, due to China's forecasted growth slowdown in 2019, the ongoing Us-china trade war and the looming Brexit crisis. On the bright side, this may just present an opportunity for the Hong Kong government to review and adjust the current cooling measures, which can be categorised broadly into two: one, through demand management, using taxation policies such as special stamp duty, buyer's stamp duty and double stamp duty to suppress property investment and speculation; and the other through mortgage requirements, such as tightening loan-tovalue ratios and stress test criteria. The former category only applies to home owners while the latter affects all home buyers.
The first thing that should go under scrutiny is the stress test. Despite multiple Fed interest rate hikes, Hong Kong banks have only recently raised interest rates by of a percentage point, and it's unlikely for the US to have another major rate increase in the future. Under such circumstances, the existing stress test system needs to be reviewed. Another disadvantage for home buyers is the loan-to-value ratio, which has dropped from 70% to 60%; for properties over HK$10 million, the number is even lower at 50%. This significantly increases the down payment for those looking to upgrade to bigger units. When their hopes of switching to larger homes fall through, these home owners, many of whom are parents, will have to keep their current small residences and spend their savings instead on helping their children acquire their first homes. Naturally, this expands demand for small units designed for first-time home owners, which in turn boosts their prices. In addition, when home owners can't sell their properties, the number of second-hand offerings plummet and the primary market becomes the only choice for new buyers. Developers exploit this opportunity to jack up prices of new developments while offering high loan-to-value ratios to attract buyers.
I suggest the upper limit of loan-to-value ratios be raised back to 70% in order to revive the secondary market and increase housing supply, and eventually help curb the prices of small units. It's worth stressing that I'm not advocating for the withdrawal of cooling measures, but rather modifying them. The ultimate goal is for cooling measures to be more productive with reduced negative side effects, hence promoting healthy market growth.
本周樓市熱門話題，當然離不開財爺陳茂波稱在合適的時機，考慮放寬樓宇按揭成數。其實自2009年開始，政府為了壓抑樓價先後推出了十多次「辣招」，當中有些是有效的、有些是無效的、甚至有部份是有反效果的。在樓價月月升值的情況下，這類政府政策一向是推出容易，退出困難。
現今樓價正在下調，平均幅度在2018年第四季已有近10%，估計2019年中國經濟下調的背景下，加上中美貿易戰，英國脫歐危機的陰影，正給予香港政府一個良機去檢討及調整一下「辣招」。當今「辣招」可分兩大類：其中一類是需求管理措施，透過額外印花稅、買家稅花稅，雙倍印花稅等等稅項，去壓抑投資及打擊投機。另外一類是收緊按揭成數及壓力測試條件。前一類只針對擁有物業者；後一類則影響全體買家，不論是否擁有物業。
筆者建議第一項要檢討是壓力測試，雖然美國聯儲局多次加息，香港銀行都仍然水浸，只追隨了1/8厘的加幅。而美國未來的加息幅度也有限，壓力測試的制度，實在有檢討的必要。另外，按揭成數也由七成降至六成，1,000萬元以上的物業更只有5成，大大提高了換樓人士的首期數目，上車盤還可以利用按揭保險去應付首期。不少換樓人士就只能望樓輕嘆。換樓失敗，本身的細單位自然不賣，反而利用換樓資金去協助子女上車，加大了「上車貨」的需求，一來一回，上車盤價格自然飛升。再者換樓鏈破壞，形成二手市場冰封，成交量大幅下跌，買家唯有選擇一手樓。發展商藉著可以提供高成數按揭，成功搶奪了二手市場買家。
筆者建議回復樓按至最高樓價七成，恢復市場正常運作，一旦二手換樓市場復甦，二手上車盤供應便會增加，對壓抑上車盤的價格有幫助。筆者強調並不是「撤辣」，而是調整。目的是讓「辣招」發揮更佳的效果之餘，也盡量減少「辣招」的後遺症，讓樓市更健康地發展。