Investment is About More Than Strategy
投資的內功心法
投資的內功心法
In early June, I attended the Hong Kong School of Austrian Economics' fourth anniversary dinner banquet. During the event, several speakers offered investment insights and tips, which got me thinking about what exactly makes a good investor.
A fund manager shared his ‘foolproof investment strategies'. Whether or not such unfailing strategies exist is debatable, but no matter how you feel, many investors do try different methods to increase their chances of generating profit. Some use fundamental analysis, some prefer technical analysis and some make trade decisions with the help of computer programmes. To me, all of these are tactical game plans, much like kung fu moves in wuxia novels.
Strategies can be learned and perfected, and even become ‘foolproof', but they mean nothing if the user doesn't have the mental strength and agility to go with their acquired skills. It's only human that our emotions can easily be affected by external factors, but for investors, that means risks and diminished returns. When pessimism permeates the market, can you follow through with your strategy and make purchases as planned? The main question isn't whether you have a foolproof formula for success, but whether you are mentally resilient enough to not be swayed by others' emotions and opinions. This type of internal strength varies from person to person, because everybody has a different tolerance level under pressure, as well as different investment preferences and goals, which can have a profound effect on your perspective and emotions.
The recent Us-china trade conflicts have led to a great deal of market fluctuations and mood swings, making it a tough time for many investors, for whom even a tweet from Trump can cause stress and anxiety. There is no amount of market analysis that can make up for such a fragile head space.
Property is a long-term investment that needs to be handled with a particularly cool and clear mind. Instead of listening to contradicting views from pundits (myself included), look at the hard facts. Have the low interest rates changed? Has the demand-supply dynamic changed? Has the income of home seekers changed? Have mainland funds stopped flowing into Hong Kong? Asking yourself these questions will help you gain a clearer understanding of the contributors of high housing prices and thus predict the future.
If the answers to these questions are negative, pessimistic market sentiment could mean great opportunities for purchasing properties. If the answers are affirmative, then it's only a matter of time before home prices drop.
Investment is something that seems easy to armchair strategists but difficult to do in real life; effective and efficient investments rely not only on your strategies, but more importantly, whether and how you execute them.
六月初筆者有幸出席香港奧國經濟學院4周年晚宴。席上有不少重量級講者分享投資心得，值得在此跟讀者分享，也許有所裨益。
其中一位基金經理分享投資必勝術，大家未必相信有此必勝術。但相信與否，也有不少投資者在研究不同的方法去增加自己投資獲利的機會。有些會用基本分析、有些會有技術分析、有些會用電腦程式進行交易。筆者將所有這些統稱為「外功」，正如金庸武俠小說的招式而已。
問題是無論這些外功招式如何厲害，甚至是必勝之術，沒有「內功」配合是無法制敵致勝。在投資路上，也就是沒法真正落實外功的招式而獲利。因為人是有情緒的，很容易受外界的消息所牽動。當發生一些事件令市場彌漫著悲觀情緒之時，投資者能否跟隨之前制訂的策略，大舉入貨？問題的核心，並不是你有沒有送諸四海皆準的投資必勝方程式，而是你有沒有能不牽動自己情緒的投資內功，再者這種內功也因人而異。每個人體質不同、可承受的壓力也不同、看事物的取態不同、選擇哪種投資工具、工具內的組合如何等，也會影響你的情緒。
最近中美貿易的爭拗，令市場情緒波動，時好時壞，令不少投資者如跌入萬丈迷霧。特朗普的一舉一動，一個留言也許牽動你的情緒。無論你如何分析，相信亦是徒然。
物業投資是長期的，更加需要大家冷靜面對。大家必須問香港樓市長期攀升的原因。不需要聽評論（包括筆者），必須看事實。低息環境有變嗎？供應不足有變嗎？有能力置業港人的收入有變嗎？國內走資到香港的情況有變嗎？香港人的財富有變嗎？這些長期支持樓價的因素有改變嗎？
若果答案是否定的話，每次市場情緒悲觀時，反而是製造入市良機。若果答案是肯定的話，樓價自然會長期回落。
投資從來都是講就容易，最困難是執行。能夠百分百執行有規律的投資策略，投資自然事半而功倍！