Bienvenue À Montréal
歡迎來到蒙特利爾
Under the radar Montréal proves there is far more to investing in Canada than Toronto and Vancouver.加拿大不是只有多倫多與溫哥華，蒙特利爾正逐步展示投資魅力。
Under the radar Montréal proves there is far more to investing in Canada than Toronto and Vancouver.加拿大不是只有多倫多與溫哥華，蒙特利爾正逐步展示投資魅力。
Though not the capital of Québec, Montréal has always been the economic and cultural beating heart of the province, the home to Canada's most creative film industry and music scenes, and in some cases a vanguard of social trends. Until the late 1960s it was also the country's economic engine, and remains the location of some of Canada's best universities (including Mcgill). After a turbulent, independence-fuelled few decades beginning in the 1970s and ending with two narrowly defeated referendums on sovereignty (similar to Brexit) and a resulting less-than-ideal business climate, Montréal has settled into life as a forward-looking city with major plans for the future (probably as part of Canada).
Among the outcomes of that renewed sense of direction is a place as one of Canada's most exciting investment locations. In its Real Estate Market Outlook 2019 for Canada, CBRE stated, “Montréal's investment market is expected to remain strong throughout 2019. Industrial and multifamily products will continue to be highly sought-after as both sectors have undergone a rapid strengthening of fundamentals with no expected slow down in the near future.”
蒙特利爾雖不是魁北克省首府，卻是該省的經濟及文化重心，加拿大的創意影視業及音樂業，以至當地社會潮流，許多是起源於蒙特利爾。該市在1960年代末之前，曾是加拿大的經濟引擎，現在是該國數間著名學府的所在地（包括麥基爾大學）。自1970年代起，蒙特利爾經歷了數個動盪十年，最終兩次獨立公投均沒通過（與英國脫歐相似），營商環境亦因此惡化。然而來到今天，蒙特利爾已脫胎換骨，成為一個具前瞻性、擁有多項大型建設的重要城市（相信未來仍是加拿大一部分）。
在發展方向重新規劃下，加拿大誕生了一個充滿投資機遇的地方。世邦魏理仕在其《地產市場展望2019》提到，「蒙特利爾投資市場預期在2019全年持續強勁。廠房及多單元房屋物業預期獲得高需求，原因是這兩個市場的基調迅速穩固，短期內不似有下滑跡象。」
Comeback Kid
The second largest city, with four million highly educated, multilingual residents in the metro area, Montréal is like many Canadian cities. Its progressive lifestyle and delicately European attitude give it an appealing worklife balance. Arts, culture, outdoor recreation and dining are some of the best in Canada, and alongside Mcgill—part of the Canadian Ivy League—, Concordia, Université de Montréal, Université du Québec and Laval are some of Canada's most affordable tertiary institutions serving the highest concentration of students in North America, ahead of Boston.
The city is also in the grips of a business and property renaissance that truly started gaining traction in 2016. While Toronto and Vancouver remain popular destinations for investors in real numbers, both markets have suffered from over-heating and affordability issues in recent years, capped off by substantial additional duties for foreign buyers: 20% in Vancouver and the surrounding area, 15% in Toronto's Horseshoe region. High prices in both plus the additional tax has compelled investors to wander a bit farther east. “With no foreign investment penalty tax like what we see in Toronto and Vancouver, and with a safe non-speculative real estate market, Montréal is quickly gaining ground as the newly designated hotspot for savvy Asian investors, especially among the Chinese,” says Samson Cheung, co-founder of RE/ MAX All Stars in Shenzhen. “In fact, while not yet at the levels we see in those major cities, the number of Chinese buyers has tripled since 2015 and represent more than 50% of all foreign investor transactions.”
With blue chip tech sector multinationals such as Amazon and IBM and artificial intelligence research labs by Facebook, Microsoft and Thales opening offices in Montréal, the city has become an AI hub. The commercial property market has been subject to rental pressure and decreasing stock, underpinning its healthy growth. “The growth of the technology industry has helped to compress brick-and-beam vacancy to historic lows as companies tend to prefer the converted space to traditional offices,” continued CBRE. “It is expected that vacancy will lower even further into 2019 and encourage more loft conversions to meet the demand.”
Safe Harbour, Strong Value
On the residential front, median average home prices in Montréal sat at roughly CA$320,000 (HK$1.9 million) compared to CA$870,000 in Toronto and CA$1.4 million in Vancouver in 2018. It is expected prices will be supported by tight land supply; Montréal's downtown core is also on an island with little room to grow, and condominium projects approved for construction regularly sell out in record time after sales launches. Data from the Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation's April report estimated home prices grew 7% in 2017, condominiums by 3%, and both continued to trend upwards. Most notably, Québec has no additional foreign buyer
捲土重來
蒙特利爾是加拿大第二大城市，市區有四百萬高學歷、說多種語言的居住人口，與其他城市無異。該市擁有先進的生活方式，同時流露著一絲歐洲文化氣息，崇尚工作與生活之間的平衡；當地的藝術、文化、戶外康樂及餐飲在加拿大佔重要地位。教育方面，加拿大長春藤聯盟院校之一的麥基爾大學、康考迪亞大學、蒙特利爾大學、魁北克大學及拉瓦勒大學是加拿大數間學費最易負擔的大學院校，亦是全北美學生人數比例最高學府，比波士頓還要高。
然而，目前蒙特利爾的商業及物業市場出現熾熱情況，而這個升溫早於2016年時發生。從數據上反映，多倫多與溫哥華仍然是首選投資地，但因兩地市況過熱，令近年價格難以負擔，因而衍生向海外投資者徵稅：溫哥華及其周邊地區徵收20%；多倫多馬蹄區15%。高昂價格與附加印花稅促使投資者放眼遠一些的東面地區。深圳RE/MAX All Stars共同創辦人Samson Cheung表示：「蒙特利爾並沒有像多倫多與溫哥華向海外買家收取額外稅項，其地產市場亦不存在炒風，相對安全，這些因素令該市迅速成為資深亞洲投資者眼中的新興市場，尤其是中國投資者。事實上，中國買家自2015年起在該市已有三倍增長，佔所有海外投資者成交量超過一半，縱然升幅還未追上在其他主要城市水平。」
蒙特利爾已有多間藍籌科技跨國企業進駐，包括亞馬遜、Ibm、facebook人工智能研發實驗室、Microsoft及thales，令該市成為人工智能的集中地。當地寫字樓市場一直出現租金受壓及供應下降情怳，
taxes. Put it all together and it's a recipe for one of North America's most robust investment markets.
In addition to boasting property prices as much as 40% lower than in Toronto and Vancouver, Montréal is also blessed with constant steady growth rather than the spikes seen in those cities. And while Cheung admits that “there have been many rumours circulating that the local municipal government may follow the lead of its cohorts in Toronto and Vancouver, no concrete plan of action has yet to take place to impose such taxes.” Moderate growth in the national GDP means foreign investment is the safest bet for now, and so extra taxes seem unlikely. If there's a challenge facing the city's market, it's the lingering threat of a referendum on independence that threw the country into turmoil in 1980 and 1995. However, the world is a very different place now, and current provincial premier François Legault and his Coalition Avenir Québec told Canadian broadcaster CTV News in 2014 the CAQ isn't interested in another sovereignty referendum. Montréal real estate lawyer David Ghavitian doesn't see an issue investors should be wary of, noting the losing Parti Québécois have themselves publicly admitted the independence movement is over.
“Though immigration and the influx of foreign investment that came with it dominated both the rhetoric and the coverage of the campaign, many Québécois don't see it as a ballot box issue. A recent study by local newspapers said it placed well behind more pressing priorities such as the environment, health and the economy.”
With a diverse economy and emerging tech sector, significantly lower prices than in other major Canadian cities, no taxes for overseas buyers and all the benefits of a transparent and stable Canadian legal framework, Montréal is where the smart money is headed. As Cheung sums up: “The time is now.”卻有助於市場健康發展。世邦魏理仕續指：「科技業增長令廠房的空置率跌至新低，原因是企業傾向使用改建空間多於傳統寫字樓。預期空置率在2019年會持續下跌，促使更多的廠房改建工程以應付需求。」具潛力的資金避險住宅方面，2018年蒙特利爾樓價中位數約在320,000加元（190萬港元），多倫多是870,000加元，溫哥華是140萬加元。市場預期樓價受到土地供應緊絀支持；蒙特利爾市中心地段位處島嶼上，增長空間有限，獲批准建設的共管式項目經常在開售後馬上沽清。加拿大按揭及房屋公司曾在其四月份報告預期2017年樓價升7%，共管式住宅升3%，兩者均持續增長。值得注意是魁北克省沒有增設額外的海外買家印花稅。綜合各種因素就是該市成為北美其中一個最穩健投資市場的理由。
除了樓價低於多倫多及溫哥華多達四成外，蒙特利爾有持續的經濟增長，絕非如其他城市般曇花一現。Samson表示：「當地已有很多傳言指市政府很可能跟隨多倫多及溫哥華開徵額外稅收，儘管現時尚未落實任何計劃。」然而，全國GDP的適度增長表示海外投資在現時仍然安全，額外徵稅不太可能發生。但若說潛在風險，很可能是醞釀中的新一輪獨立公投，這或會令該市再次陷入像1980及1995年那樣的動盪。不過，今天的世界已是另一回事，而魁省現任省長François Legault及其魁北克未來聯盟黨派（CAQ）於2014年已在加拿大廣播電視CTV的新聞訪問中提到CAQ並沒計劃發起獨立公投。另外，蒙特利爾地產事務律師David Ghavitian認為投資者毋須擔心這個問題，指出魁北克人黨其實已公開承認獨立運動已劃上句號。
「雖然移民與外資流入是運動的核心議題，但許多魁北克人不認同會影響投票結果。當地報章進行的一項最新研究顯示，環境、健康及經濟等議題更有急切性。」
隨著經濟發展出多樣性、科技業穩步上揚，加上樓價遠低於其他城市及不對海外買家額外徵稅，以及高透明度、穩定的加拿大法律制度，蒙特利爾展現出可觀的投資魅力。正如Samson總結：「入市時候到了。」