It's halfway through 2019 and prices may be steady, but there are other surprises in the Hong Kong market.
2019上半年過去，樓價走勢平穩，但本港樓市仍有驚喜。
At the mid-point of 2019, we're well into the Us-sino trade war, and despite fears from every corner of the globe, the sky has not fallen yet. After a modest increase, interest rates have gone back into what is expected to be a holding pattern (according to JLL mortgage rates averaged 2.38% in April), giving a boost to buyer sentiment. Sales volumes rose approximately 50% in April, and May's primary sales launches were generally successes: Wheelock sold 616 of 616 available units at Montara in Tseung Kwan O; New World and Henderson Land's Timber House in Ho Man Tin moved all stock of 240 units; and Billion Development sold majority of its massive Centra Horizon in Pak Shek Kok in three rounds. So where is the market heading for the rest of the year?
Coming Together
A notable statistic on the residential property landscape is the increasing lack of price respite. Not too long ago, price and rent gaps from district to district on Hong Kong Island were enough to force buyers to the periphery of Central and Causeway Bay. Sheung Wan and Tin Hau were more affordable options and really not that far away. The gap between the Island and almost any spot in the New Territories was even more considerable. This isn't the case anymore. According to new research by JLL, price differentials in new mass market flats (up to 752 square feet) on Hong Kong Island versus the New Territories is 79%—down from 90% five years ago, and between Kowloon and the New Territories, it's just 14%, down from 35%. Part of that price convergence can be attributed to increased supply in the New Territories—over 50,000 units by 2021—underpinned by cooling measures that drive buyers to the primary market. Additionally, “the development and emergence of decentralised office nodes has also played a role in helping lift demand,” says JLL'S head of research, Denis Ma.
As an example, total households in Sai Kung have increased by 7% since 2014, and mass housing prices have climbed 23% in the same period, mostly in Tseung Kwan O due to its proximity to Kowloon East's emerging business district and new access to Hong Kong East such as the Tseung Kwan O-lam Tin Tunnel. “As rural areas continue to further develop, the importance of location in purchase decisions is likely to continue to steadily decline,” says Henry Mok, JLL'S senior director of capital markets. “Structural changes will support prices in rural areas, yet the direction of movements will be heavily dependent on whether the bulk supply can be fully digested, especially during a market downturn.”
來到2019年中，儘管讓全球憂慮的中美貿易戰持續，但毋須叫苦連天。利率先升後回穩（仲量聯行數據顯示4月份按揭利率平均為2.38%），有助刺激買家入市意欲。4月份銷售量飆升50%，不少在5月份推出的新樓銷情亦不俗，如會德豐位於將軍澳日出康城Montara的616個單位全數沽清；新世界和 基兆業合作發展的何文田 樺，240個單位亦是全數洽清；億京發展第三輪銷售白石角大型項目海日灣亦售出大部份單位。那麼，下半年市場走勢會如何發展呢？
連成一線
從數據顯示，住宅市場出現了一個明顯變動，就是價格差距不斷收窄。不久前，港島各區之間的樓價及租值有一定差距，迫使買家轉向中環及銅鑼灣的周邊地區，如上環或天后，物色更多可負擔的選擇。以往港島與新界任何一區的價格差距相當大，現在卻風光不再。
根據仲量聯行最新研究資料，港島面積為752平方呎或以下的中小型住宅新盤，與新界同類型新盤的價格差距，於過去5年內由90%顯著收窄至79%。而九龍與新界的差距則由35%下跌至14%，部份原因是新界供應量提高，預期到2021年有超過5萬伙單位應市，加上辣招促使買家進入一手市場。仲量聯行研究部主管馬安平表示：「不少公司把寫字樓搬離中央商業區，這新興趨勢有助提升需求。」
Downturn, Not Tumble
Despite recovery in some sectors since the first downturn in late 2018, there's been some degree of price stability. In its mid-year report, Knight Frank noted mass residential prices recorded a 5% gain in the first quarter of 2019, reflecting the aforementioned positive sentiment. However, prices are forecast to hold steady at 0% growth, with luxury and super luxury sectors predicted to gain 5% by the year's end. In the crucial office and retail sectors, things are expected to be a bit more muted. Premium rents in prime island office locations could fall as much as 4%, with Kowloon gaining up to 3%. Once again, street retailing seems set to suffer a 5% loss of rental values, with malls either holding steady or gaining as much as 5%.
Of the intra-market variations, Knight Frank's executive director, head of valuation and advisory, Thomas Lam, argues, “External uncertainties such as trade war concerns could cloud market sentiment. We anticipate the residential market [would] be dominated by first-hand sales for the remainder of this year. Meanwhile, developers are adjusting their sales strategies as some are leasing their projects instead of selling through tender.”
Those external forces (and potentially internal, given Hong Kong's politically turbulent June) remain focused on trade issues and tourist numbers. Exports continue to feel the pinch, dropping 2.6% in April over the previous year, with retail sales also falling 4.5%, largely due to the drop in high value goods such as jewellery and high-end electronics. Ironically, tourist arrivals rose 5.2% during the same period. “The decline in retail sales shows a shift in the purchasing pattern of inbound tourists, from luxury goods to daily necessities,” said Colliers International in its June 5th Weekly Market Intelligence report. “We believe the slowing retail sales may lengthen the process of lease negotiations between landlords and tenants, and weigh on growth of rent and prices for high street shops.”
New Horizons
Finally, as prices and policies keep real estate out of reach for many Hongkongers, alternative investments continue to gain traction for wealth creation. In late May, New World Development put 67 car park spaces up for sale, selling all of them within a day for a total of HK$186 million. A further 36 spaces priced between HK$2.3 and HK$2.7 million went on the block at Pavilia Bay in Tsuen Wan and K. Wah launched 31 spaces in Kai Tak for a total of HK$98.2 million. The Legislative Council Secretariat claimed average prices for parking spaces skyrocketed between 2006 and 2017, from HK$380,000 to HK$1.2 million (increasing over 300%) based on, what else, supply shortfalls. Car ownership grew 2.3% between 2017 and 2018; parking by just 0.4%. Considering a couple famously purchased a car park space in 2017 for HK$3.4 million and sold it less than a year later for nearly 100% profit (HK$6 million), it's no wonder parking could be the next bull market.如自2014年起，居住在西貢的家庭住戶數目上升7%，大部份位於將軍澳的中小型住宅價格同期攀升23%，因該區鄰近東九龍新興商業區，而且有直達港島東的將軍澳藍田隧道。仲量聯行資本市場部資深董事莫凱傑說：「隨著市郊不斷發展，位置作為置業因素的重要性亦逐步降低。這個結構性轉變支撐起新界區樓價，但最終還要看市場能否徹底吸納供應量，特別在市道低迷期間。」
低迷非下跌
儘管2018年底遇到首輪放緩後，只有個別市場能收復失地，但價格在某程度上仍保持平穩。萊坊年中報告表示，中小型單位價格在2019年首季有5%增長，反映市場情緒正面，但預計價格只會一直平穩。預計到年底，豪宅及超級豪宅升5%；寫字樓和零售預計較淡靜；港島甲級寫字樓租金跌4%；九龍升3%；街舖租金跌5%，但商場則保持平穩或有近5%升幅。
至於市場走勢，萊坊高級董事及估價及諮詢主管林浩文表示：「鑑於外圍不明朗因素，如貿易戰令市場滿佈陰霾，我們預期至年底，住宅市場會以一手樓銷售為主；與此同時，發展商調整銷售策略，將部份物業改賣為租，或以招標形式出售。」
那些外圍因素（亦有來自6月份香港政局不穩的內部因素）以貿易紛爭及遊客數字為主；另一邊廂，出口持續受壓，4月份較去年同期跌2.6%，零售業務下滑4.5%，原因是貴價品如珠寶及高級電子產品銷情不佳。然而，旅客數字於同期上升5.2%，高力國際在其6月5日發表的《Weekly Market Intelligence》報告中表示：「零售下滑顯示入境旅客購買模式改變，由購買奢侈品轉為購買日用品。我們相信零售市道放緩會延長業主和租客之間的租務協議，亦令一線街舖的租用率及租金上調。」
新的曙光
最後，房地產價格及政策令許多香港人買不起樓，替代投資產品繼續成為創造財富的動力。在五月底，新世界發展放售67個車位一天內售罄，獲利1.86億港元，其後又在荃灣柏傲灣推出由230至270萬港元不等的36個車位，而嘉華則在啟德推出31個車位，總銷售額為9,820萬港元。立法會秘書處所編制的文件顯示，車位平均價在2006年至2017年期間急升－由38萬升至120萬（升幅為300%），主要因素是供應短缺，而擁有私家車的比例在2017至2018年間上升2.3%，但泊車位只有0.4%升幅。一對夫婦在2017年以340萬購得一個車位，短短一年內以600萬售出（盈利接近100%），車位很可能成為下一個牛市。