AN OVERVIEW OF SHENZHEN'S OFFICE MARKET

解讀深圳寫字樓市場

Since the middle of last year, the rental market for Shenzhen's office buildings has garnered much attention due to changes in market conditions. In the first quarter of this year, the overall office rent in Shenzhen fell by 5% from the final quarter of 2018 to around RMB 264 per square metre. The withdrawal of some financial industry tenants in the Futian district has also caused a large drop in rent, to RMB 287 per square metre. In fact, Shenzhen's commercial developers have changed their business model from development and sales to development and self-sustainability. Some will be leased by second-hand landlords, and then rented to other merchants. Although they pocket the rental difference, these second-hand landlords also bear the risk of poor market conditions. If the market environment deteriorates, there will be a large number of office buildings waiting to be rented, and more favourable leasing policies (such as rent reduction) will need to swiftly be provided to high-quality tenants to avoid project occupancy rates deteriorating. Fortunately, the current boom in the technology and commerce sectors has helped alleviate some negative impacts of the current decline in demand of the financial sector's leasing market.

In the medium- and long-term, the proportion of Shenzhen's tertiary industry has indeed been rising, activating demand for commercial properties from different industries, especially with new office projects. According to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, the proportion of Shenzhen's tertiary industry has gradually increased from 50.5% in 2008 to 58.7% in 2018. Over the same period, the proportion was 80.9%, 69.9% and 71.8% in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, respectively. Meanwhile, according to szhome.com, three new projects in the Baoan district were pre-sold in the first quarter of this year, increasing new supply by 141,854 square metres (or 751 units). The total transacted first-hand area was 142,944 square metres (or 1,077 units), an increase of 6% year-on-year. The OCT Tower in the Nanshan district had a total sales area of 52,200 square metres (or 175 units) in the firsthand office market, topping the list. In the same period, the second-hand market transaction area was 30,187 square metres (or 256 units), up 2.1% year-on-year. The average price of office buildings remained stable at RMB 52,924 per square metre.

With the integration of Shenzhen and the neighbouring Guangdong cities with Hong Kong and Macau into the Greater Bay Area, the attractiveness of Shenzhen's office sector to foreign institutional investors is expected to increase. As Shenzhen's office market has hit its peak supply period according to market news, we can expect competition between new projects to increase in the coming two years, which may lead to more large transactions in Shenzhen's office buildings.

自去年年中起，深圳寫字樓的租務市場，因市場環境發生變化而備受關注。今年第一季深圳整體寫字樓租金環比下跌5%至每平方米人民幣264元左右。部分金融行業租戶撤出福田區，亦令租金下降幅度較大，至每平方米人民幣287元。事實上，當前深圳寫字樓開發商的經營模式由昔日的開發銷售轉型至開發自持，而有些會先被二房東承租，然後再出租給其他商戶。二房東在賺取租金差價的同時，亦承受市場環境較差的風險，如市場環境變差，便會有大量寫字樓待租，而急需為優質商戶提供形形式式的租賃優惠政策(包括減租)，從而避免項目進駐率每況愈下。可幸是當前科技和電商業的蓬勃發展，有助舒緩目前金融業對寫字樓租務需求下降所帶來的衝擊。

中長期而言，深圳第三產業佔比，的確是存在上升的空間並激活不同產業對商業地產的需求，尤其是新寫字樓項目。根據香港貿發局的數據，深圳第三產業的比重由2008年的50.5%，逐步上升至2018年的58.7%。而同期該佔比在北京、上海和廣州，分別為80.9%；69.9%及71.8%。與此同時，深圳房地產信息網資料顯示，今年首季度有三個位於寶安區內的新項目獲預售許可證，令新增供應量增加141,854平方米（或751個單位）。一手市場成交面積為142,944平方米（或1,077個單位），同比增長6%。南山區的華僑城大廈在一手寫字樓市場的總銷售面積為52,200平方米（或175個單位），排名第一。同期，二手市場的成交面積為30,187平方米（或256個單位），同比上漲2.1%。整體寫字樓平均房價保持平穩至每平方米人民幣52,924元。

隨著深圳與鄰近的粵港澳大灣區城市融合發展，預期將增強深圳對外國機構投資者的吸引力。市場消息指出，深圳寫字樓市場供應高峰期已至，預期今明年項目間競爭日漸加劇，或會帶動寫字樓的大額成交。